- By Chris Mason
- Political Editor, BBC News
Unless opinion polls change a little more, Rishi Sunak knows his time left as prime minister could be numbered.
But he is the instigator of a smoking plan with substantial, cross-party political support that is expected to herald significant social change.
And this cross-party support suggests it is an idea with greater political longevity than it might have had, because Labor would not abandon it if they won the election.
In other words, whatever happens is what some politicians call a legacy.
As I wrote here when Mr Sunak first outlined his plans last autumn – in what he described at the time as “the biggest public health intervention in a generation” – he This is a government that seeks to push for, or influence, societal change: the near end of smoking.
On Tuesday, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins said she hoped creating a tobacco-free generation would “spare thousands of young people from addiction and premature death and save billions of pounds for our NHS”.
What was once common is already marginal. It is now a matter of trying to almost eradicate it, over time.
This debate is not over: what we have seen so far are the first parliamentary steps. There is still a long way to go before this becomes law.
So that’s the big picture, the potential social changes. And politics?
Nearly 60 Conservative MPs voted against Mr Sunak’s idea.
Yes, they had a free vote – they weren’t told how to vote – but they defied it nonetheless. Among them, Minister Kemi Badenoch.
A hundred others abstained. Among them, Minister Penny Mordaunt.
A source close to Ms. Mordaunt told me that she abstained because “she was not a supporter of the bill. She has many objections to him. opposing it would seem more confrontational and more Manichean than abstaining would have been. »
Who could this be a dig at? Ah, Kemi Badenoch.
And what do Mrs. Mordaunt and Mrs. Badenoch have in common? A touch of ambition.
Some are touting them both as future conservative leaders.
Learn more about the smoking ban
When we look at the figures, almost half of the Conservative MPs could not bring themselves to support one of their leader’s key ideas of the last six months.
Which says a lot about the divisive nature of the Conservative parliamentary party, even if it’s not much that wasn’t already clear enough to the regular observer.
Labor is already happily claiming it’s a good job they backed the idea, otherwise Mr Sunak would have lost.
And they are also thinking publicly about what these opponents might do once the opportunity arises to change ideas, to engage in amendments.
But then again, they would be defeated if those in their favor continued to support the plan as it is.
When governments can hold on to a plan that is consistent with the direction a society is already headed, the power of law can move it forward profoundly and, probably, permanently.
This idea – at least for now – seems to be part of it.
And, for all his political troubles, it is Mr Sunak who is the perpetrator.
