gGermany and Poland has never been great friends, but Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could have been a turning point. Relations had improved during the tenure of the Civic Platform, a centrist party, only to deteriorate again after the populist Law and Justice party (pIs) won the election in 2015. A major sticking point was Germany’s relationship with Russia, which Poles viewed as dangerously friendly.
Russia’s assault on its neighbor has outraged Germans and Poles. However, there was no connection between Mitteleuropa’s the biggest countries. A few days after the invasion, Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, announced a Zeitenwende, or seismic change, in foreign and security policy. But Polish politicians were quick to denounce Germany for doing too little too late – with some reason, as German weapons were slow to arrive in Ukraine. They also pillory German officials for continuing to talk to the Russians.
As German Ambassador to Poland in recent years, Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven tried unsuccessfully to restore relations. “pIs needs bogeymen,” says Freytag von Loringhoven. Its villains are Russia, Germany, and the European Union, usually in that order. “Trust between our countries is at rock bottom,” said the German envoy, who left Warsaw at the end of June. His successor will be Thomas Bagger, a top diplomat.
Mr Scholz tasted acrimony after becoming chancellor in December. A foundation close to the Polish Ministry of Culture sponsored a campaign asking Germany to pay reparations for World War II. Placards in Warsaw showed Joseph Goebbels, Adolf Hitler’s main propagandist, next to Angela Merkel, Mr Scholz’s predecessor; Frank-Walter Steinmeier, President of Germany; and Mr. Freytag von Loringhoven. Germany rules out reparations, saying Poland waived them in 1953 and did not lift them in 1990 when German reunification was negotiated.
Poles tend to assume the worst of Germany. When Mr. Scholz visited Kyiv in June with Mario Draghi, the Italian Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron, the French President, and Klaus Iohannis, the Romanian President, rumors circulated in Warsaw that Mr. Scholz wanted to conclude a agreement to end the war and force Ukraine to cede territory. It did not go unnoticed that MM. Scholz, Macron and Draghi invited Mr. Iohannis rather than Andrzej Duda, the Polish president. Mr. Duda had alienated the German and French leaders by comparing their telephone diplomacy with Mr. Putin to calling Hitler.
Mr Duda also accused Germany of breaking its promise to replace the more than 200 tanks that Poland provided to Ukraine. The German government claims that Poland refused its offer of Leopard tanks and Marder combat vehicles because they were not the latest models and there were not enough of them. But “the mainstream of public opinion in Poland is convinced that Germany has not yet kept its promises. Zeitenwendesays Sebastian Plociennik from Vistula University. Poland wants massive armed support for Ukraine and finds Germany’s step-by-step approach senseless.
“It’s easy to press the anti-German button in Poland,” says Maria Skora, a specialist in German-Polish relations. References to the defeat of the Teutonic Order at the Battle of Grunwald in 1410 or the role of Prussia in the partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 18th century are still part of Polish political discourse. Stirring historical grudges can help pIs to convince the Poles that their country needs patriotic leaders. But that doesn’t help build the alliances Europe needs against Russia. ■