Just as blue-chip stocks aren’t necessarily that hue the day they’re introduced, blue-chip prospects aren’t always – or even usually – primed to generate big returns on day one, either.
Troy Weaver is to second what Warren Buffet is to first. And the Pistons general manager knew Killian Hayes was a long game when he used his first draft pick after being hired by owner Tom Gores to steer the ship on Hayes, then a 19-year-old French prospect with a year-old as a leader in the average German professional league on his resume.
Dividend checks could show up in the Pistons’ bank account with a bit more frequency, it seems. If Hayes’ signing moment in Thursday’s overtime win over Dallas was an eye-opener for the NBA, in his locker room it prompted more knowledgeable nods.
“All summer,” Isaiah Stewart said of previous examples of Hayes’ eye-catching poise. “All summer. Seen this all summer. A good start to pre-season. So it’s just great to see.
On a stage dominated by NBA favorite for MVP Luka Doncic on a night the Slovenian prodigy lived up to the hype, it was Hayes who put on the dazzling plays when it came time for victory . Three consecutive mid-range jumps, then the threat of a fourth to find Marvin Bagley III for a lay-up on the regulation stretch. Two huge 3-point wingers in overtime. Coming back into the game with 7:24 left in the fourth quarter, Hayes had 6 of 7 shots, both of his triples and assisted on two more baskets without committing a turnover.
For the game, 22 points on 10 of 13 shooting with eight assists against just two turnovers as the leading ball handler in 33 minutes.
“The guy I’m proud of is Killian Hayes,” Dwane Casey said after the 131-125 win. “He made big shots, big plays, big passes. Defensively, he was active in our blitz. Really proud of the way he played and bounced back. I can’t say enough good things about him.
Weaver and Casey always believed that this day was coming. They thought absurd outsiders were ready to write off a 21-year-old whose rookie season – already started under the twin challenges of transitioning not just to a new league but a new country on top of the COVID-19 pandemic that erased the typical recruit orientation process – was crippled by a traumatic hip injury.
Weaver thought it would take Hayes longer than the other young point guards because, he said, he had to become “Americanized.” He liked Hayes’ size, his vision, his size, his anticipation and his defensive bent. But European point guards are learning to play by the rules, and Weaver realized the length and athleticism of the NBA would require Hayes to get to a place where instinct trumped the textbook instructions imprinted in his brain.
This process doesn’t happen overnight, and even after Thursday’s breakthrough, it’s just that: a process. But Weaver and Casey had seen enough and believed in Hayes enough not to be dismayed even as the third year got off to a bad start. In his first 13 games, Hayes averaged 4.5 points and shot 27% overall and 19% on three. Since Cade Cunningham was sidelined by injury and Hayes moved to the starting lineup, those numbers are 11.8, 44 and 40.
Over his last four games, it’s 16.5, 53 and 35.
“It feels good to finally go to the side where things are starting to work for you,” Hayes said after his star turn. “You just have to keep working. I put in a lot of work. I have the confidence of my coaches, of all my teammates. It feels good, yeah.
Hayes pushes back against suggestions that he had lost confidence even though it has become commonly accepted by observers that he was not playing as if expecting success. There was at least a degree of indecisiveness in him as he probed a defense and chose whether to get up to shoot, keep his dribble alive to the edge or walk off the ball. Instances of contested shots in the paint or getting caught in the air without a parachute are drastically reduced lately.
“He’s more stable,” Stewart said. “When I see a difference between yesterday and today, it’s just obvious. He believes he is that kind of player.
Stewart, Hayes, Saddiq Bey and Saben Lee came together – Weaver’s “Core Four” – in the midst of this chaotic 2020 pandemic draft and they formed a close bond to help weather the headwinds they faced. That chemistry remains intact even with Lee included in the trade that brought Bojan Bogdanovic to Detroit.
“I’m sure he’s probably sick of us talking to him,” smiled Stewart. “But even on nights like this, we still talk to him. Just keep cheering him on.
Casey’s thing with Hayes during the tough times was to get him to focus on defense and play and forget about scoring. It’s true that Hayes can be a valuable piece even without racking up a lot of points. But expectations are hard to ignore, and lottery picks come with bigger expectations than being a keeper.
“He hears the noise,” Casey said. “It’s a shame that we have the Internet for this reason. I wish he had my mentality. I don’t even look at it. He probably feels he has to score. And he doesn’t. He’s our best playmaker. He’s our best playmaker. It’s what he does best.
“Everyone was worried about the bad things with the kid. Everyone was worried about his shooting. We need the point guard game, a quarterback.
Hayes knows there probably won’t be many nights where he’s the one taking the biggest hits on a roster that includes Cunningham, Bey and Jaden Ivey, not to mention veterans like Bogdanovic and Alec Burks. But he has Thursday in his back pocket now. There is no need for manufactured trust anymore. Its Americanization is in full swing.
“Every game, if I shot the ball badly, I was like, ‘Next game is this, this game is this, this game is that,'” Hayes said. “We play so many games, you don’t have time to dwell on a game. You just have to move on and keep trusting your work.
The Pistons have so many young players at similar stages. Stewart is following his own process, playing all of his minutes in Thursday’s win at the forefront after only knowing center until very recently. Bey spent his rookie season almost exclusively throwing 3-pointers and is now trying to master many arts. Cunningham’s progress is on hold as he rehabilitates. Ivey and Jalen Duren are rookies for whom sometimes the world still spins too fast.
But even now, there are times when all of these arcs intersect and the future is briefly brought into focus. What might that look like a day when the Pistons have their three lottery keepers – Hayes, Cunningham, Ivey – firing full throttle with Stewart, Duren, Marvin Bagley III, Bey and their friends doing what they do?
“It’s going to be great,” Stewart said, nodding. “You have three guards like that, you can’t go wrong.”
