The first MLB draft lottery took place during winter meetings tonight. The Pirates received the first overall pick, followed by the Nationals and Tigers. Here is the first round:
- pirate
- Nationals
- tigers
- Rangers
- Twins
- As
- Reds
- Royals
- rockies
- marlins
- angels
- Diamondbacks
- Cubs
- Red Sox
- White socks
- giants
- Orioles
- Brewers
- Rays
- blue jays
- Cardinals
- Dishes
- sailors
- Guardians
- brave
- Dodgers
- padres
- Yankees
- Phillies
- Astros
In previous years, the draft order was set in reverse order of the regular season standings. As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for uncompetitive teams to lose games, the last collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are always weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had equal odds of landing the top pick. All 18 non-elimination teams were technically in contention for one of the top six picks, but with increasingly diminishing odds for clubs with better records. The 12 playoff teams were ranked based on their playoff results, with a team’s revenue-sharing status separating teams eliminated in the same round.
This year, the Nationals, A’s and Pirates all had the best chance of earning the first overall selection. Each club had a probability of 16.5%. The Reds (13.25%) and Royals (10%) round out the top five as the only other teams with a 10% or greater chance of getting the top pick. Other than Pittsburgh, the Twins were the biggest beneficiaries of the new system, placing in the top five despite having the 13th-worst record. The Royals have fallen outside the top ten despite finishing fifth in the standings, while Oakland slipped from second to sixth.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the repechage. Beginning in the second round, the order of selection is determined in reverse order of the previous season’s standings, with the exception of compensatory and competitive balance selections.
Although the draft order is official, there is obviously a lot of uncertainty as to which players will be at the top of the class. Baseball America updated its top 100 preliminary draft prospects in October, placing LSU’s right fielder Dylan CrewsTennessee right-handed Chase Dollander and Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez among the most talented prospects. There will be plenty of movement once the amateur baseball circuit resumes next spring.
