Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season was absolutely absurd, and when weeks are absolutely absurd, that means players probably haven’t found consistent success. For example, maybe taking the Las Vegas Raiders or Baltimore Ravens moneyline in the first half was a better bet than the full-time moneyline. The 1 p.m. comebacks were incredible, as the Cleveland Browns pushed 37-year-old Joe Flacco into the elite and Tua Tagovailoa threw four touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.
One thing I learned was to stay away from the Detroit Lions, because they’re responsible for two of my top-five pick misses. I feel more confident for this week compared to week 2, so let’s take a look at what I think.
As always, thanks to the CBS Sports research team for making me look smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
ATS record among top five picks: 3-7
Overall record ATS: 13-19
Direct record: 14-17-1
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (fox)
Latest odds:
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
Carson Wentz gets the chance to get some revenge on the team that drafted him No. 2 overall in 2016 as the Eagles pay the COs a visit. Unfortunately for Washington, things are going very well for its division rival. Philly is 2-0 and is coming off an impressive 24-7 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Jalen Hurts scored three total touchdowns, while Darius Slay locked in Justin Jefferson – intercepting Kirk Cousins twice when the star spread was targeted.
It should be mentioned that Wentz is the third notable former Eagles quarterback to join Washington along with Sonny Jurgensen and Donovan McNabb, and Jurgensen and McNabb won their first rematches against the Eagles. However, Jurgensen and McNabb were better players than Wentz. That’s not to say Wentz hasn’t been solid with Washington so far, but the Eagles are a better team overall than the Commanders. Philadelphia’s ground game will propel the Eagles to victory, as Washington is averaging 7.5 yards per carry this season, which is the worst in the NFL.
When I looked at this line a few days ago it was PHI -4.5. I’ll still take it well under 7.
The choice : Eagles -6.5
Projected score: Eagles 35-28
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Latest odds:
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
I never want to get ahead of myself and I will never guarantee you anything but taxes and death, but this line confuses me. I get that the Chiefs came out incredibly slow against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, but aren’t they still in the top five teams in pretty much everyone’s power rankings?
The Colts, on the other hand, are shaken – and I would be too. You start the year tied with the Houston Texans, then you get crushed by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yeah. The Sharps are clearly on the Colts there, though, as the line went from KC -6.5 to KC -5.5 on Wednesday. Alright, I’ll take the extra point.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions this season. Remember, it’s still September and the Chiefs QB is 13-2 in the month with 48 passing touchdowns to just three thrown interceptions. The Chiefs have also won nine consecutive regular-season games on extended rest, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.
The choice : Heads -5.5
Projected score: Heads 30-20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (fox)
Latest odds:
Baltimore Crows -3
Some are scared to score with the Ravens since, one, it’s the Patriots’ home opener, two, the Patriots’ defense has been solid, and three, the Ravens stumbled in Week 2 — blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter lead at home. At the same time, we can’t just ignore the fact that New England’s offense is averaging just 12 points in two games, while Baltimore is averaging 31 points per game. I’m betting on Lamar Jackson and Co. using last week’s loss as fuel to move forward.
All trends say the Patriots should win this game, but I’m against them all. This Patriots team is not like the Patriots teams of old, and they will face one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL on Sunday.
The choice : Crows -3
Projected score: Ravens 26-20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (fox)
Latest odds:
Las Vegas Raiders-2
As CBS Sports.com’s resident Titans writer, I can tell you that Tennessee has some serious issues. Ryan Tannehill wasn’t great, Derrick Henry didn’t look like himself, offensive coordinator/game caller Todd Downing is quickly becoming the most hated man in Music City, left tackle Taylor Lewan could be lost to the year the run the defense has taken a big step back from last season, the cornerback play is worse than people think and the passers are stoned. Should I stop there?
The Raiders are also 0-2, but I think it’s pretty easy to guess what their game plan will be on Sunday. On offense attack young cornerbacks with Davante Adams and Darren Waller. On defense, use Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones to wreak havoc on a backup left tackle and a rookie right tackle. Just in case you forgot, Jones had five sacks and two forced fumbles the last time he faced the Titans.
The choice : Raiders-2
Projected rating: Raiders 27-20
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Latest odds:
San Francisco 49ers -1.5
The Broncos weren’t my pick to win the AFC West stacked this season, but I really feel like I overrated them. First-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett made the wrong call with the game on the line in Week 1, and he again struggled on fourth down/field goal calls in Week 1. 2. There’s no reason the Broncos have been this close to the Texans. , and although they ultimately won, fans did not leave Empower Field at Mile High feeling victorious. Denver is 0 of 6 in the red zone this year, leading the league in shots with no win against the spread and now faces the toughest team it has played so far.
As for the 49ers, can you believe their luck? You almost can’t make this story up. They tried to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, failed and are now thanking their lucky stars for him after Trey Lance’s injury. No one celebrates Lance breaking his ankle, but Jimmy G is going to take this opportunity. I still don’t think Garoppolo is one of the elite flaggers in the NFL, but he’s pretty consistent. The 49ers are 31-14 with Garoppolo and 9-29 with every other starting quarterback since 2017. That line was a pick just days ago, but is now moving in the direction of the 49ers — and for a good reason in my opinion.
The choice : 49ers -1.5
Projected rating: 49ers 24-21
Other Week 3 Picks
Browns 23-20 over Steelers (+4)
Bengals (-6) 28-21 vs. Jets
Vikings 33-30 vs. Lions (+6)
Texans (+2.5) 20-17 over Bears
Saints (-2.5) 24-20 vs. Panthers
Bills 30-27 on Dolphins (+5.5)
Chargers (-7) 28-20 over Jaguars
Packers (PICK) 21-20 over Buccaneers
Falcons (+1) 29-27 vs. Seahawks
Rams 27-24 over Cardinals (+3.5)
Cowboys (+1) 23-20 vs. Giants