The Week 1 slate again features a few AFC East teams battling it out right out of the gate. For the third consecutive season, the Patriots and the Dolphins will meet at the start of the year. In 2021, Miami managed to win the season sweep of its division foe but missed the playoffs, finishing 9-8. Meanwhile, New England finished the regular season at 10-7 and reached the playoffs, but were soundly eliminated by the Buffalo Bills on Super Wild Card weekend.
These two teams will be vying for a playoff spot and will have roughly the same odds. At Caesars Sportsbook, Miami is at +130 to reach the playoffs, while the Patriots are at +148.
Of course, this march starts on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. Below you’ll find out how to watch this game, read an overview of these two clubs and a betting breakdown to keep you up to date.
How to watch
Date: Sunday September 11 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
TV: SCS | Direct: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports app
Odds: Dolphins -3.5, O/U 46.5
Insight
The Dolphins went through quite an overhaul this offseason. After relieving Brian Flores of his duties as head coach, the team hired former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to lead the franchise. He is expected to bring an offense similar to Kyle Shanahan’s in Miami, which should help Tua Tagovailoa as he enters Year 3.
On top of that, the team went on a free agent spending spree, inking offensive tackle Terron Armstead, running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, and wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr. to the deals. . They also franchised tight end Mike Gesicki and completed a blockbuster trade to acquire star wide Tyreek Hill to partner with sophomore wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. All of these weapons have now set up a breakthrough year for Tagovailoa to show the franchise whether or not he can be a true franchise signalman.
As for the Patriots, perhaps the biggest change for the team is the departure of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has accepted the position of head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. In his place, Bill Belichick has opted not to name a reigning OC, but from what we’ve seen over the summer, the responsibilities will be placed on the shoulders of Matt Patricia. Joe Judge will work with the quarterbacks and Belichick will oversee the offensive operation. During preseason, this “simplified” offense went through a few bumps and looked a little clunky, so it will be interesting to see how this new masthead performs as it enters the regular season.
As for the man charged with leading the offense, Mac Jones is entering the second year of his career after a productive rookie campaign. He will now have a deeper wide receiver group with DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. The backfield combination of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson should also be heavily supported.
Defensively, the outside corner is an area to watch as the team lost All-Pro corner JC Jackson in free agency. Jalen Mills is expected to hold one of the starting spots and the other could be Jonathan Jones. Rookie Jack Jones could also be a factor here.
line movement
Latest odds:
Miami Dolphins -3.5
The line opened at Dolphins -3 when the schedule was released in the spring and has largely held. It dropped half a point to -2.5 during scorching summer days, but has more recently seen Miami’s advantage climb to -3.5, which could be due to concerns surrounding the New England attack.
The choice: Dolphins -3.5. Miami Gardens has been a house of horrors for the Patriots for the past few years. They’re 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at Hard Rock Stadium and this Dolphins team is a more explosive group than what New England brings to the table. The lack of depth at the outside corner could mean Hill and Waddle could turn this game into a track meet in Miami’s favor.
Upper/lower total
At the opening, that total stood at 44.5 and climbed steadily throughout the summer until reaching a high of 47 on August 31. From there it started to drop a bit and hovered between 46 and 46.5.
The choice: under 46.5 years old. Slightly skinny here. The Patriots offense doesn’t look ready. From offensive play to their problems protecting Jones in the preseason, it’s hard to imagine New England racking up the points. While Miami has weapons to open this game, McDaniel will balance things out with the current game, which could cap their scoring cap.
McJones
- Touchdowns: 1.5 (more than -104, less than -131)
- Passing yards: 231.5 (over -117, under -117)
- Ground course: 8.5 (Over -103, Under -133)
- Overtaking attempts: 30.5 (Over -137, Under +100)
- Completion of the longest pass: 35.5 (more than +104, less than -142)
- Achievements: 20.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
- Interception: 0.5 (more than -115, less than -119)
Jones exceeded that total for passing yards in seven of 17 games played during the regular season last year. He has also exceeded that total for passing attempts on eight occasions. That would be one way to lean, especially if you think the Patriots will be trailing in this game, which would suggest more pass attempts for Jones. He’s also thrown at least one interception in nine games in 2021, which is a top-notch bet here.
Tua Tagovailoa
- Touchdowns: 1.5 (more than -111, less than -123)
- Passing yards: 230.5 (more than -103, less than -133)
- Ground course: 9.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
- Overtaking attempts: 31.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
- Completion of the longest pass: 34.5 (over -123, under -111)
- Achievements: 22.5 (Over +102, Under -139)
- Interception: 0.5 (more than +104, less than -142)
Tagovailoa may not be used to racking up a ton of airyards, but Hill and Waddle’s ability to open up deep or make chunk plays on YAC makes the completion prop longest passing over 34.5 more appealing, especially when the Patriots have questions at the outside corner. Tagovailoa threw multiple touchdowns in just five of his 13 games played last season and rushed for five times that total.
Player accessories to consider
Tyreek Hill total receiving yards: over 63.5 (+100). Hill has historically played very well against the Patriots, albeit with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. In four regular season games against them, he averaged 100.3 receiving yards per game. Miami will likely be looking to get him involved early and often and his top speed will likely be too much for the New England corner to handle, so getting that extra cash presents good value.
Total receiving yards for Chase Edmonds: over 16.5 (-115). Edmonds had been listed on the injury report with a groin injury but appears to be ready for Sunday and should be the best back in McDaniel’s backfield. Last year, 49ers guards were targeted an average of 5.8 times per game. If McDaniel brings that to this Miami offense, Edmonds — who averages 7.2 yards per reception — should see plenty of volume to go here.
