Patrick Mahomes injury: How lack of mobility could impact QB chiefs in AFC Championship game against Bengals

If you heard a noise after Patrick Mahomes’ leg was rolled up in the Chiefs’ playoff win over the Jaguars on Saturday, it was probably America’s collective groan as the best quarterback in the planet suffered a sprained ankle. It’s an injury Mahomes expects to sustain in Sunday’s AFC Championship game, but one that could prevent us from watching Mahomes pull off iconic escapes and jaw-dropping shots. The domino effect could also alter championship hopes and legacies across the league.

The gap has already fallen by 2.5 points at Caesars Sportsbook. The Chiefs opened as one-point favorites on Sunday night and are 1.5-point underdogs on Wednesday.

Here’s how Mahomes’ style of play could be impacted:

The most obvious change will be a lack of mobility from arguably the most dangerous (and most entertaining) passer from outside the league pocket. Prior to getting injured on Saturday, Mahomes was putting on a masterclass in quarterback improv, jump passes and side-arm throws to impressive darts on the run.

Six of his 12 passes came from outside the pocket before he was injured. None of his 18 assists came out of his pocket after suffering a sprained ankle which forced him to hobble the rest of the game. He was relegated to fast throws between tackles, as his average throwing time dropped by half a second.

Patrick Mahomes before/after injury vs Jaguars

Taking mobility away from Mahomes is kind of like taking away the three points from Steph Curry. Mahomes led the NFL in both setbacks and efficiency (EPA per setback) out of the pocket this season (tied with Justin Herbert). So in terms of quality and quantity, Mahomes is on another level, which is why you’ll see his image at the top right below, looking at the aforementioned numbers.

He’s been a human highlight since entering the league, and no one has come close to impacting the playoff move. He accounts for 15 of the league’s 37 touchdown passes out of the pocket (41%) over the past five playoffs. The quarterback who is second on the list has four (Josh Allen). Mahomes had three touchdown passes outside the pocket in the first half alone in last year’s AFC Championship game against the Bengals.

Most pass the TD outside pocket in the playoffs since 2018

More evidence points to Mahomes losing a crucial part of his game. His game was also noticeably affected by a turf toe injury sustained in the 2020 Divisional Round win over the Browns which required intervention. surgery during the offseason. Although Mahomes put on a clinic against the Bills in the 2020 AFC Championship Game, he had one of the worst games of his life in a 31-9 loss to the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV.

Of course, a turf toe and a sprained high ankle are two different injuries and the Chiefs also lost both starting offensive tackles in that Super Bowl, but the results were still staggering.

Mahomes was 7 of 23 assists with an 18.2 passer rating out of the pocket the remainder of the 2020 playoffs after injuring his toe. His passer rating outside the pocket is 117.8 in all other postseason games.

Patrick Mahomes passes outside the pocket in playoff career

Don’t dismiss Mahomes’ jamming ability either. Since the start of last season, only Allen has scrambled for more first downs on third down than Mahomes. It’s another essential tool in his arsenal that will break the back of a defense and allow Kansas City to extend workouts.

All is not lost, however. You could argue Mahomes and the Chiefs are better equipped to handle this injury than they were when he suffered the injury in the 2020 playoffs. Tyreek Hill and Mahomes’ 2021 “fall” loss forced Kansas City to adapt to the way teams were defending it and rely more on an effective, fast-paced approach.

Mahomes has been the most effective quarterback in the NFL in the following situations this year, as measured by EPA by dropback:

• Passing inside the pocket

• Passage in less than 2.5 seconds

• Pass without blitz

• Passes against two or more high safeties

He has become more accustomed to cutting defenses into the pocket. Mahomes’ average pass length (7.24 yards on the field) was the shortest of his career in 2022, and he tied an NFL record by throwing 28 touchdown passes to running backs and tight ends . The results speak for themselves as Mahomes also recorded his second career 5,000 yard passing season and is a lock for his second NFL MVP award.

Perhaps that sums it up best. If you stripped all of Mahomes’ touchdown passes outside the pocket since 2018, he would still have the same number of touchdowns (138) as Allen in that span. He can still absolutely win more games than most inside the pocket.

A clean pocket will be essential to Mahomes’ success on Sunday, and he has the luxury of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football. However, Lou Anarumo’s defense may not be as cushy as Jacksonville’s. The Bengals sent 10 defensive passes against Allen last weekend, confusing those zonal blitzes, which our own Chris Trapasso broke up earlier this week. The Bengals have done it effectively all season, and it generates pressure almost HALF the time.

Bengals stats in zonal blitz this season

The deck looks stacked against Mahomes even though he may play on Sunday, but when it comes to the best QB on the planet, it’s best never to underestimate him.