The 2024 NFL Draft is one for the record books, as six quarterbacks were selected with the first 12 picks – an NFL record for the number of quarterbacks selected to start in a draft (tying the record for most quarterbacks selected in the first round). The first defensive player off the board was at 15th overall, the last defensive player ever drafted.
As this unpredictable project finally has a resolution, which of the biggest observations from the first round was an overreaction and which was a reality? There will be spicy debates with some of these players.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Michael Penix Jr. is a great prospect and one of the best quarterbacks in the draft. Why did the Falcons take him 8th overall when they just paid Kirk Cousins $180 million over four seasons with a no-trade clause? Are the Falcons really going to move on from Cousins before his deal closes?
The answer is yes. Atlanta didn’t draft a quarterback in the top 10 because the Falcons were going to sit him out for four years. The Falcons can save $32.5 million in salary cap space by cutting Cousins in the 2026 offseason and handing over the reins to Penix.
Cousins has two years with the Falcons and will be 38 in 2026. The time will be right to move on to Penix.
The Vikings had the best draft in the first round
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Vikings actually traded three times in this draft, once before the draft and twice during the draft itself. Trading up just one spot (from No. 11 to No. 10) to get JJ McCarthy — who was the fifth quarterback taken — is a massive win for a franchise once thought to move up into the top five to get their quarterback.
The Vikings traded up again in the first round and landed one of the best defensive players in Dallas Turner, who should thrive in a high-pressure scheme with Brian Flores.
The top draft pick, however, went to their NFC North rival Chicago. The Bears were able to put Caleb Williams at No. 1 overall and Rome Odunze at No. 9. The Bears also have DJ Moore and Keenan Allen at wide receiver with Odunze, while also having D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert at running back.
Have the Bears changed their offensive line? No, but Shane Waldron has the elements to allow Williams to succeed right away. They are assigned to positions of competence.
JJ McCarthy is ready for a huge rookie season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
McCarthy has all the tools to succeed in year one. He has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as his two best wide receivers, as well as TJ Hockenson as his best tight end when healthy. These are pass catchers that rookie quarterbacks typically don’t get the opportunity to throw to during their rookie season, especially for incredibly accurate quarterbacks.
Sure, McCarthy has Aaron Jones at running back and Christian Darrisaw at left tackle. This is a great core to build around, especially for a young quarterback.
Don’t be surprised if McCarthy finds immediate success in the NFL.
Taking six QBs among the first 12 picks was justified
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
There are better football players than some of the quarterbacks who were selected in the top 12 of this draft. The top three players selected at quarterback were a foregone conclusion, especially with the needs of the Bears, Commanders and Patriots at that position.
After Drake Maye was named No. 3, it appeared the quarterback picks had stagnated. Then the Falcons took Michael Penix at No. 8 – even though they just gave Kirk Cousins $180 million! This changed the entire project for several teams.
The Vikings took JJ McCarthy at No. 10 and the Broncos took the last remaining guy at No. 12 in Bo Nix. There’s easily a case to be made that McCarthy and Nix were short, and Penix was shockingly drafted before McCarthy.
Denver didn’t need to draft Nix at 12th overall. There were better players on the board who would help a bad roster. The McCarthy pick made sense for the Vikings and Penix is extremely talented, but going to the Falcons was the surprise of the whole thing.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Giants won by not forcing themselves to draft a quarterback, even with JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix on the board. They made the right choice by selecting Malik Nabers 6th overall.
New York didn’t trade for Nabers and gave Daniel Jones arguably the best wide receiver they’ve ever had. Nabers is immediately the Giants’ No. 1 wide receiver. His route running and ability to create yards after the catch will be huge for Jones as he fights to keep his job.
The Giants can still get their franchise quarterback next year. They were smart not to force one on the list this year.
Quinyon Mitchell will start for the Eagles in Week 1
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Eagles shouldn’t necessarily start Mitchell this season, even with all the raw talent he possesses. His physique stands out on the tape and he can play outside. Mitchell has played mostly zone coverage and not enough man-to-man yet, so the Eagles will take their time with him.
Darius Slay starts at cornerback and James Bradberry is still on the roster at this time. Mitchell will fight for a starting role and play on special teams right away, but the Eagles will be patient with their new corner early in his career — especially on a roster full of them.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Bills need a wide receiver after trading Stefon Diggs. They had an opportunity to land an impact player at #28. They passed on the wide receiver position not once, but twice, moving from No. 28 to No. 32 – then moving on to the second round.
The first trade was with the Chiefs, who selected Xavier Worthy with the pick. The vertical presence the Bills needed in their offense would have been worthy, and now he’s with Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City. Good bet Worthy opens things up underneath for Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce.
Buffalo passed Xavier Legette at 32nd and allowed the Panthers to trade up and get it for themselves. Ultimately, the Chiefs improved on offense and the Bills dropped out of the first round and stockpiled their picks.
It’s a mistake to let an AFC rival get better, especially for a team that needs pass-catching help.
