“The Fabelmans” and “The Banshees of Inisherin” offer several Best Supporting Actor opportunities, and a few dark horse contenders emerge.
We’ll be updating all of our Oscar predictions throughout the season, so keep checking IndieWire for the latest news on the 2023 Oscar race. official Oscars being announced on January 24, 2023. Final voting will take place between March 2 and March 7, 2023. Finally, the 95th Oscars TV show will air. on Sunday, March 12 and airs live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT.
See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.
The state of the race
As awards season continues, the race for Best Supporting Actor has been narrowed down to a handful of favorite projects. The question is how many actors from each film will make it into the category on Oscar nomination morning.
Best Picture favorite “The Fabelmans” currently has the most potential to receive more than one Best Supporting Actor nomination. Judd Hirsch gets the biggest push. The veteran actor has worked steadily in the 40 years since his first Oscar nomination in 1981 for ‘Ordinary People’ (he lost the supporting actor to co-star Timothy Hutton), and now his landmark moment as an intimidating uncle with sage advice sets him on the road to a well-deserved victory. At the U.S. premiere of “The Fabelmans” at AFI Fest, the audience actually applauded Hirsch after the scene.
Steven Spielberg’s self-fiction about a child who falls in love with movies as his parents split up could also yield a long-awaited debut nomination for Paul Dano’s subtle, understated performance as a tech-savvy dad. Will the acting branch reward such a low-key role?
They could opt for the louder, brusque and always unpredictable Irish stalwart Brendan Gleeson, who stars alongside best actor favorite Colin Farrell in Martin McDonagh’s mythical story of a broken friendship, ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’. which pokes fun at the box office specialty with $7.3 million in North America and more. Surprisingly, neither man has been named. If “Inisherin” proves to be a popular choice with Oscar voters, its tail ends could also attract their young co-star, the extraordinaire Barry Keoghan.
Meanwhile, two dark horse contenders have emerged – one for a nomination and one for victory. Although the AppleTV+ movie “Causeway” was small, it proved powerful with audiences. Jennifer Lawrence’s moving lead performance (reminiscent of her Oscar-nominated turn in “Winter’s Bone”) certainly helps, but star Brian Tyree Henry is the star. The character actor just wrapped “Atlanta,” the project that launched his TV and film career, with a heartbreaking role that provides the best showcase yet of his immense acting talent. Henry has been in the conversation for Best Supporting Actor before, most notably for his pivotal scene in Barry Jenkins’ “Moonlight” sequel “If Beale Street Could Talk,” but never got the momentum he did. has now with Indie Spirit and Gotham. Award nominations.
Ke Huy Quan also shares these recent accolades, but his film “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which topped the Indie Spirit Awards with eight nominations, is anything but small. The March release has not only become A24’s highest-grossing film to date (domestic $70 million), but now that more Academy members have seen it, a true contender in more film categories. ‘Oscars than we could have predicted. Momentum is building, especially among the cast. Quan returned from a long hiatus from the industry stronger than ever to play powerhouse husband Michelle Yeoh in the multiversal action-comedy. His Waymond Wang is tender, philosophical and easy to root for – a reflection of Quan himself.
If there are contenders for support who could still get a second wind, it would be Ben Whishaw of “Women Talking” and Micheal Ward of “Empire of Light,” who are awaiting the release of their films to the general public.
Candidates are listed in alphabetical order below. No actor will be considered a favorite until we see the movie.
Pioneers:
Paul Dano (“The Fabelmans”)
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Casway”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything everywhere at once”)
Competitors:
Woody Harrelson (“Triangle of Sadness”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Mark Rylance (“Bones and All”)
Jeremy Strong (“Armageddon Hour”)
Micheal Ward (“Empire of Light”)
Ben Whishaw (“Women Who Talk”)
Long shots:
Ralph Fiennes (“The Menu”)
Tom Hanks (“Elvis”)
Anthony Hopkins (“Armageddon Hour”)
Ben Foster (“Emancipation”)
Brad Pitt (“Babylon”)
Glen Powell (“Devotion”)
Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Nurse”)
Miles Teller (“Top Gun: Maverick”)
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