We knew, at some point, that this would happen. President Donald Trump, who has lied to the American people on all facets of their lives – their education, their family, their mistresses, their money – now asks us to believe it on a potential life and death issue: the coronavirus.
Trump says he’s on top. But this time, it’s not his life he’s talking about, it’s ours. Should we – and can we – believe it? I hope. We are all Americans after all, and even though I am not a fan of Trump, he is our President, and I wish him well in the face of this common threat. If it can contain it, with limited damage in terms of lives lost and economic disruption, I will be the first to say thank you and give praise.
Yet true to form, Trump has said things that are deceptive or downright false. For example, he compared the coronavirus to the flu and asked if a flu vaccine could be used to fight the coronavirus. He also said that his “hunch” was that the World Health Organization was wrong that the death rate from coronavirus was 3.4% (30 times more deadly than the 0.1% death rate for those who get the common flu).
Daily life disruptions increase
Voluntary or involuntary home quarantine may become more common as the coronavirus spreads. The problem here is that tens of millions of americans have no paid sick leave. What choice: go to work sick and spread germs (but get paid), or take time off (without pay) to get better. Did you know that we are one of only two developed countries in the world (South Korea is the other) that does not guarantee paid sick leave?
Tens of millions of Americans also make a living from paycheck to paycheck, and the Census Bureau reports that about 13 million people work in two or more jobs. If sick workers are encouraged or invited to stay at home because of the growing fear of coronaviruses, what will they do? What if schools and businesses close, as we have seen in China and Japan and begin to see it in Washington State?
Then there is the problem of medical costs for these people who are getting by. The Federal Reserve estimates that nearly 40% of Americans do not have $ 400 in reserve to pay for an emergency. Getting tested for coronavirus is expensive, even if you don’t have it. If you are infected, there are travel and quarantine costs and missing jobs. Frank Wucinski got stuck with a $ 3,918 tag after being evacuated from China with his three-year-old daughter and quarantined by the U.S. government in California. “When the bills appeared,” he told the New York Times, “it was just a pit in my stomach, like,” How can I pay for this? “”
Clear priorities:The coronavirus is not about the Trump stock market and the 2020 ratings. Or at least it shouldn’t be.
If the virus spreads in the United States in the weeks and even months to come, many people might ask themselves such questions. To make matters worse, the number of uninsured Americans is increasing: The Census Bureau notes that in 2018, for example, 27.5 million people “had no health insurance at any time”, an increase of almost 2 million people Year before.
This is a legitimate question for Trump as he campaigns for re-election on his largely baseless claim that it could be “the largest economy in the history of our country. “If it’s great, why can’t 40% of Americans manage a $ 400 expense? And why do so many people lose their health coverage?
Stock market roller coaster of fear, uncertainty
The point is, for all of the President’s boastfulness, the economy grew at a modest 2.1% in the fourth quarter of last year – and that was before fears about coronaviruses started to increase . What could happen now?
The stock market has been on a roller coaster – buckling and bouncing and buckling again under the weight of fear and uncertainty. Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, tells me that the US economy could start to contract this month, thanks primarily to a drop in exports, as well as supply chain disruptions, a sudden hard for manufacturing and more.
Fighting coronavirus:Wash your hands and promote access to clean water worldwide
Companies freeze hiring, cancel sporting events and concerts, and withdraw from rallies like SXSW. Individuals are also starting to take precautions – canceling flights, avoiding restaurants, working from home. Economists call this “aversion behavior,” and since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of US economic activity, no setback should be taken lightly. In fact, warns Hunter, the most likely scenario for U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 is 0.9%.
A recession is officially defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. If Hunter’s forecast is correct, we’re not far behind. In the future, no one knows how bad the coronavirus could be, both human and economic. We wish our president and other officials good luck. Talking honestly about the medical and financial hardship that millions of Americans may face and trying to do something about it is a good place to start.
Paul Brandus, founder and office manager of the White House of West Wing Reports, is the author of “Under This Roof: The White House and the Presidency” and a member of the Board of Contributors of USA TODAY. Follow him on Twitter: @WestWingReport
