The author is a contributing columnist, based in Chicago
Women over 50 often complain that Western society treats them as invisible, if not irrelevant. But according to a new poll from AARP, America’s leading organization for people 50 and older, older women could hold the balance of power in next month’s all-important midterm elections.
An AARP survey of likely female voters ages 50 and older, released earlier this month, found just over half didn’t yet know who to vote for – even though 94% planned to vote. . Older women normally decide in the spring how to vote, says Nancy LeaMond, AARP’s executive vice president and head of advocacy and engagement. She says it is “surprising” to find such a large proportion of undecided so close to the ballot.
I know how they feel: my own mail-in ballot is waiting on my kitchen counter. I haven’t filled it out yet, because I haven’t yet been able to rise above my general contempt for all politicians enough to choose one over another. The hesitation of people like me could make a big difference in the upcoming midterm elections, which could alter the distribution of power in the US Congress and transform state legislatures across the country, says LeaMond. Early voting in some states has already begun.
Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics calculates that women cast 10 million more votes than men in recent elections, and AARP says women over 50 especially punch above their weight. Using data from censuses and state voter records, AARP calculates that women over 50 cast nearly a third of the votes in 2020 and 2018, while making up just over a quarter of registered voters. In 2020, 83% of registered voters in this age group voted.
“We are a very large group, we are 63 million, and older women were particularly important in the last elections,” says LeaMond. She adds, “In some major swing states like Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan, women over 50 make up 25-28% of the population but 31-35% of voters. . . they are almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. . . and many of these races are so close that people should pay attention to a group that says they are definitely going to the polls.
Why is this group so uncertain? Christine Matthews, president of Bellwether Research and Consulting, one of the pollsters that partnered with AARP for the survey, said “there’s a lot of cross-pressure on these voters: they’re weighing all sorts of things from concerns about inflation to threats to social security, as well as threats to democracy and concerns about crime and immigration.” Jackie Salit, president of Independent Voting, says she thinks the Older women may be indecisive in part because “the political culture is so unpleasant that they ignore it”.
I expected abortion to be a key issue for many voters, following the recent US Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade. But it only ranks third for Democratic women over 50. For Republican women in this age group, inflation and crime top the list.
Judging from the focus group transcripts provided by AARP, economic insecurity was clearly a top issue for nearly all of the women interviewed. Half said the economy was not working for them and 41% said they had cut back on essential purchases. A 64-year-old woman from Ohio said she had to decline a Zoom call with her 18-month-old grandson. “I have to work whenever the hours are there for me, everything is skyrocketing to the point where I can’t be the grandma I want to be because I can’t miss $20 work money to zoom with her.”
Latino voters over 50 are even more undecided than white voters. “Hispanic women have become much more negative about the economy and how it works for them,” Matthews said.
“As the largest bloc of swing voters heading into midterms, female voters 50 and older can make a difference in 2022,” says LeaMond. But no one knows in which direction they will jump – especially those who are still on the fence even as voting begins.
