We had a week 3 meh, going 8-8 against the spread and 9-7 straight. The 2-3 ATS record on my top five picks hurts, because there’s no way the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Indianapolis Colts, and Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers completely embarrassed themselves in the streak against a no good Denver Broncos. crew. The Tennessee Titans surprised me; however, I’ll take the ‘L’ on that one.
We have a fascinating roster to look forward to this week, which means we should see some upheaval. There are so many little gaps this week. Get ready for close matches. As always, thanks to the CBS Sports research team for making me look smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
ATS record among top five picks: 5-10
Overall record ATS: 21-27
Direct record: 23-24-1
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Latest odds:
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
Trap game? Jaguars for three weeks is an awesome story that I feel like we don’t talk about enough. Trevor Lawrence looks set to become the franchise quarterback everyone thought he would be, James Robinson runs like he didn’t tear his Achilles tendon last year and the defense is currently among the 10 best units. In fact, they currently hold the title of best running defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 55 rushing yards per game! The Jaguars are very much alive to win the AFC South, but the Eagles top many people’s power charts this week – including Pete Prisco — for good reason.
Jalen Hurts is Philly’s headliner so far, but the defense is one of the top five units. They allowed eight or fewer points in consecutive games for the first time since 2004 and won consecutive games by more than 16 points for the first time since 2017. The Eagles currently have the No. 1 offense in the NFL and are coming back this week in the arms of their home fans, as the Jaguars have just won their first road game since 2019 – when the Raiders were still in Oakland. The Eagles are winning this game, and I like having the number under seven. I took the Eagles last week as a best bet and it worked. Let’s do it again.
The choice : Eagles -6.5
Projected score: Eagles 27-20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (fox)
Latest odds:
New York Giants -3
I think Justin Fields has franchise quarterback potential, but he’s not going to show that potential on this offense or with the weapons he has. It’s a reality that I accepted even before the start of the season. Fields has 297 passing yards on the year. To put that into perspective, there have been 20 individual 300-yard passing games in the NFL this season. The Bears will throw the ball on offense.
I don’t think the Giants are a playoff team, but Saquon Barkley seems to be back. He is second in the NFL in rushing yards with 317 and actually leads the NFL with 408 scrimmage yards. The Giants offensive line is going to have to perform better on Sunday, but I like that this game is home to New York, and that Fields is 4-8-1 ATS (33%) in his career. This is the worst ranking among quarterbacks since last season (minimum 10 starts).
The choice : Giants -3
Projected score: Giants 20-13
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (fox)
Latest odds:
Tennessee Titans +3.5
Both of these teams got back on track last week, as the Titans beat the Raiders and the Colts upset the Chiefs. Tennessee and Indianapolis will play twice over the next three weeks, but the Colts haven’t defeated the Titans at home since 2018. Indy shocked the NFL world last week against KC, but the Colts shouldn’t have win this game. The Chiefs shot themselves in the foot time and time again and found themselves losing because of it. In fact, the Colts are averaging the fewest points (13.3) in the NFL this season.
This game is fascinating because the Titans and Colts want to control the tempo with their running backs. Keep an eye out for how Derrick Henry is being used as a receiver, though. He caught five passes for 58 yards against the Raiders last week. That 58 receiving yards was the third he had ever recorded in a regular season game, his second-highest five receptions and six targets tied for a career high. Check out her party accessories if you’re into that sort of thing.
I think the Titans are the better team in this game, but it scares me that they were outscored 57-7 in the second half this year, while the Colts have the biggest yard margin in the fourth quarter against their opponents (+316) . Still, getting the Titans to +3.5 seems like good value.
The choice : Titans +3.5
Projected score: Titans 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Latest odds:
Green Bay Packers -9.5
I don’t know how much detail I need to go into for this pick, as I’m sure anyone reading this understands where my head is. Mac Jones suffered what was described as a severe ankle sprain and it looks like he won’t be playing. That means it will be Brian Hoyer against Aaron Rodgers at home.
The Packers are 14-6 ATS since last season, which is tied for the second-best ATS record in that span. The Patriots’ two losses this season are in double digits. It wasn’t ideal that all of the Packers’ 14 points last week came on their first two practices of the game, but the defense managed to keep Green Bay in the win column.
The choice : Packers -9.5
Projected score: Packers 23-10
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Latest odds:
Los Angeles Rams +1.5
The 49ers made me look bad for trusting them last week, so I’m wiping them out this time around. I apologize, I thought Jimmy Garoppolo could be an effective game manager and beat an attack that heard nothing but boos in his first two home games. Jimmy G is now 1-4 in prime time since last season.
If you’re wondering why the 49ers are favored in this game, it’s probably because Kyle Shanahan is 6-1 against Sean McVay – with the only loss coming in last year’s NFC Championship Game. Of the last seven meetings between the Rams and 49ers, five of them have been decided by eight runs or less. In fact, four of them were decided by exactly three points. However, I don’t think it’s appropriate to follow the trends of this game.
The Rams have a top-10 run defense and the 49ers lost left star Trent Williams for a few weeks to injury. Give me THE
The choice : Rams +1.5
Projected rating: Rams 21-13
Other Week 3 Picks
Bengals (-3.5) 24-17 vs. Dolphins
Vikings (-2.5) 23-13 on Saints
Chargers 28-26 over Texans (+5)
Falcons (+1.5) 30-24 over Browns
Lions (-4) 27-20 against Seahawks
Cowboys (-3) 28-24 vs. Commanders
Steelers (-3) 21-14 over Jets
Bills (-3) 38-30 vs. Ravens
Cardinals (+1.5) 27-20 vs. Panthers
Raiders (-2.5) 24-21 vs. Broncos
Chiefs (-1) 26-23 against the Buccaneers