It’s still early in the season, but the trends are firming up a bit and the shifts are becoming clearer as we move into October. My best bets are 6-3 this season after being 3-0 last week, finally some momentum in the right direction. Here are the Week 4 matches on my radar and the next picks this weekend.
Latest odds:
Buffalo Tickets -3
Josh Allen vs. Ravens Secondary
Sunday’s QB game between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson should be a first MVP showcase. I hope they both continue to post video game numbers, but the Bills defense played much better than the Ravens, whose defensive issues carried over into 2022. I don’t think you can no longer blame Baltimore’s slump on injury after they gave up more than 450 passing yards and six touchdowns to Tua Tagovailoa while blowing a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter of Week 2. Here are some troubling numbers:
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Ravens rank dead last in total defense this season
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They are the only team to allow a 300-yard passer every game
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They’ve allowed five of 18 league-wide 400-yard passers since 2021 and five 30-yard-plus touchdowns than any other team in that span.
Let’s face it, it’s not your father’s impenetrable Ravens defense. Ray Lewis won’t be walking through that door any time soon. I don’t trust a team against Josh Allen that gave up so many points, yards and big plays. This week, Allen and his rocket arm could have a field day with his deep ball. He’s completed a whopping 70% (7-10) of his passes on throws over 20 yards in the field this season. This is the best rate in the league. Guess which defense is the worst in the league on those deep passes? The Crows. The QBs are 10-15 (67%) from 20+ yards down the field against them.
Take: Invoices
Latest odds:
Los Angeles Rams +1.5
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Rams Pressure
I’m surprised to see the 49ers being favored over the Rams on Monday Night Football, even though they’re at home and have given Los Angeles fits for the past few years. San Francisco had won six straight against the Rams heading into the 2021 NFC Championship Game where they spit out a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. This game was sealed on an interception by Jimmy Garoppolo while suspended by Aaron Donald.
I expect more from this past Monday, especially given how Garoppolo and the 49ers looked in Denver and the loss of league-leading tackle Trent Williams. Garoppolo leads the NFL with 10 interceptions under pressure since the start of last season (including the playoffs), and they often come at inopportune times like his fourth-quarter interception against the Broncos in Week 3 — and the pick aforementioned against the Rams.
San Francisco could counter that mismatch by committing to the ground game like they did against the Rams last year on Monday Night Football, when they won 31-10 and ran the ball 44 times. I don’t expect a repeat with their best running back Elijah Mitchell and the way they scripted plays last week. The 49ers ran it 37% of the time in Week 3 (23rd in the NFL) despite a close game where their passing offense struggled.
Take: Rams
Latest odds:
Dallas Cowboys -3
Cowboys D-line vs. Commanders O-line
Perhaps the biggest shift of the week is the Cowboys’ pass rush against the Commanders’ offensive line. Going into Week 4, the Cowboys led the NFL in sacks, and Commanders were tied for the most sacks allowed. The two have polar opposite performances in Week 3. Dallas fired Daniel Jones five times on Monday Night Football and pressured him 22 times. Carson Wentz was sacked nine times against the Eagles, a career high.
ESPN’s pass-blocking metrics shed more light on the extent of the gap between these units. The Cowboys rank fourth in pass completion rate, which measures how often at least one player on their line passes within 2.5 seconds. Commanders have the fifth-worst passing block success rate in the league. In other words, the Cowboys pass rush should once again create havoc. With Cooper Rush holding the fort without Dak Prescott, I expect Dallas’ pass rush to be the difference on Sunday.
Take: Cowboys