NFL odds and picks
Now is the time to buy low on the Colts.
As bad as they look, it’s important to remember that they haven’t played a home game yet. The anticipation line for this game was Colts +2.5. Have we learned so much about the Colts in two weeks to move the line an entire basket?
I’d say no: Divisional Dogs tend to own favorites in Week 1, and the Jaguars still own the Colts in Jacksonville.
It’s teams like the Colts that crush in this kind of spot. According to our Action Labs data, winless home teams entering Week 3 against a visitor with at least one win are 31-19-2 (62%) ATS since 2005.
And Week 3 dogs with at least one ATS loss that open under a TD are 89-54-2 (64%) ATS since 2005.
The shutout in Jacksonville was abysmal, but the offense will be in much better shape with the return of Michael Pittman, who had nine catches, 121 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
On defense, the Colts should be able to hold up better than Gus Bradley’s iterations with the Raiders, as the Chiefs no longer have Tyreek Hill to beat Bradley’s favorite cover.
Since 2005, Dogs that have suffered a shutout loss are 41-21-3 (66%) ATS since 2005, beating the spread by an average of 2.73 points per game.
We should get the Colts best effort there. It’s their opener after being ridiculed all week, and I expect them to be more physical than a Chiefs team that hasn’t played in 10 days.
While Andy Reid is known to be good with extra time to prepare, this narrative doesn’t hold up in these places. With 9-13 days off, Reid is 7-10 (41%) ATS since 2008, including 5-7 on exactly 10 days off after playing Thursday Night Football the previous week.
The Colts are 9-3-1 as the dog catching more than a field goal under Frank Reich, beating the spread by an average of 5.31 points per game. One of those wins was a 19-13 upset over the Chiefs in 2019 as a 10.5-point underdog.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are just 7-17 (29%) ATS in their last 24 games when favored by more than one field goal.
FanDuel Quickslip: Foals +5.5
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Despite playing as the Panthers’ starting tight end, Thomas has been 13 yards or less in 13 of 19 games (68%) since the start of last season.
In Week 2, he saw his road turnout drop from 58% to 50% — and now this week, offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo says he wants to involve wide receivers more. The Saints allowed seventh-fewest receiving yards on tight ends (43), including just 19 to Kyle Pitts on seven targets in Week 1.
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Despite a tough preseason, Burks has been a revelation so far in the otherwise maligned Titans offense.
Burks threw for 55 yards in his debut against the Giants and still passed for 47 against the Bills on Monday Night Football in a game in which Tennessee only passed for 123 yards. He did so despite running a route on just 48% of team stalls and he’s fifth among wide receivers for two weeks with 3.40 yards per throw (minimum 10 targets).
Burks is the Titans’ leader in catches and yards for two weeks, and his road attendance went from 37% in Week 1 to 61% in Week 2. He could see another jump this week with his fellow rookie Kyle Phillips — who happens to be second on the team in yardage targets — listed as questionable with a shoulder injury.
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Houston has a good chance of pulling off the upset here.
In two games, the Texans rank as the best team in offense (26th in DVOA vs. 30th), defense (16th vs. 27th) and special teams (17th vs. 24th). Houston’s team PFF total rating of 60.2 is 28th, which obviously isn’t good, but it’s still more than 10 points above Chicago’s league-worst 50.1.
On offense, the Texans’ greatest strength is that they don’t turn the ball around. Davis Mills has yet to throw an interception and has the fourth-lowest play rate in the NFL (1.2), per PFF. Contrast that with Justin Fields, who has already thrown two picks out of 40 dropouts and has the NFL’s highest play rate (9.8%) with more than three percentage points on the second-highest passer.
The Bears won’t be able to hide Fields all game, and it’s a tough game for him against a Love Smith zone defense that will always keep tabs on him as a runner. Fields leads the NFL in average time to throw (3.54) by more than half a second, and I expect Smith’s appearance to confuse him.
The Texans have arguably the two most explosive players in this game, wide receiver Brandin Cooks and running back Dameon Pierce. And while the Texans have been average on offense on early downs (which tends to be the most predictive of future success), the Bears are at or near the bottom of the league.
- First DVOA pass: HOU 14th, CHI 32nd
- First DVOA Offensive Down: HOU 14th, CHI 30th
- Second DVOA pass: HOU 14th, CHI 32nd
- Second down DVOA offensive: HOU 12th, CHI 20th
According to our Action Labs data, dogs without a win +1.5 to +7 are 127-81-4 (61%) ATS in weeks 2-4 since 2005, including 40-26-2 (61%) in the week 3.
Houston also fits our “Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season” PRO trend, which I tweaked a bit to make it even stronger while still maintaining its A rating.
FanDuel Quickslip: Texans +3
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Collins lines up on the left side of the roster for the majority of his snaps, which means he’ll most often face Bears right cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who teams just aren’t throwing this season.
According to PFF, Johnson was targeted three times and allowed one reception in 65 cover shots.
Collins’ catch rate is only 50 percent this season and 54.2 percent for this career, so he’s unlikely to hit four receptions. He has been under this number in 12 of 16 career games.
He also doesn’t play any real starting snaps, as his road turnout this season is 75%, which looks more like a No. 3 WR than a No. 2.
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Wilson followed a 4/52/0 first rookie with an 8/102/2 breakout last week against the Browns, giving him an average of 77.0 receiving yards in two games. More impressively, he recorded those numbers despite running on just 65% of Jets dropouts.
Wilson’s road attendance went from 56% in Week 1 to 75% last week, and it should continue to climb as he already looks like one of the best WRs in the league. He’s averaging 11 targets per game, and his target rate per lane of 31% is an elite figure that ranks seventh among WRs (min. 50 lanes).
I would bet that total up to 54.5. The Bengals have already given up more than 55 receiving yards to Noah Brown (91), CeeDee Lamb (75) and Diontae Johnson (55) this season.
