It’s Old Takes season, with the end of the NFL season upon us and memories of strangely incorrect preseason predictions surfacing on social media. Some of that work is wrong — quite a significant portion, in fact, we did an entire segment on the Pick Six podcast mocking our predictions — and when it came to the Browns this season, I was absolutely wrong.
My preseason prediction for Cleveland the Browns were 7-10. And Browns fans let me know.
It’s their prerogative and I won’t stop them. But I find the 2023 Cleveland Browns team to be one of the most fascinating cases of an “old catch exposed” situation.
Much of my predictions for the Browns involved Deshaun Watson struggling and injury risk. Both of these things came true! In fact, if you told Browns fans that Watson would struggle, get injured, be replaced by PJ Walker, who would then be replaced by Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who would then be replaced by aging street free agent Joe Flacco, Browns fans probably would. get excited about the concept of going from 7 to 10!
However, things turned out differently, as is often the case in the NFL. Football is strange and it was especially strange in 2023 with the large number of backup quarterbacks omnipresent on NFL rosters. Football games often come down to the little things, a bounce here or a bounce there and those bounces end up producing a year-end result in one-score games that can completely turn the standings around.
The Browns, JUST AS AN EXAMPLE, have gone 6-2 in one score games this year. Make it 2-6 and they are a 7-9 team. That’s not to say they’re lucky, because I believe they’re a very good football team that deserves to make the playoffs – not to mention plenty of NFL playoff accolades – but they’ve had lucky this season.
Look at the Vikings in this chart: Last year they went 13-3 thanks to an incredible run of one-score games and are now fighting for a playoff spot because of bad luck in games to one score and numerous quarterback injuries.
That’s just life in the NFL. And the Browns have been on the bad side for a while now, so I have no problem rooting for their playoff success. I don’t care if I sound stupid about my preseason predictions. That’s not true and I will always admit it, I just feel like the process here for a magical season in Cleveland to happen was maybe a little different than even the most fervent and optimistic fan of the Browns reportedly suggested.
Give me some January Joe and even some February Flacco. Let the old man cook again. Speaking of old men cooking, let’s move on to the final week of regular season picks.
If this is Bill Belichick’s finale in Foxborough and his swan song with the Patriots, you won’t be able to convince me to write him off against the Jets. The Pats’ effort has been there in recent weeks and, by the way, see above (re: one-score games and how different this season could be for New England). No Pats fan should complain about bad beats in the post-Tom Brady era, but things could have gone differently for Belichick this season. The Jets may have the better defense, but I don’t see them beating Belichick in what could very well be his last game in New England. Even if Belichick isn’t going anywhere next year, he still really, really hates the Jets and isn’t afraid to torch them in a largely meaningless game.
Rams/49ers under (41.5)
Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are largely committed to playing their replacements in this game. Puka Nacua could benefit from a bit of extended time early in the game in order to break some rookie receiving records, but overall it will be a savefest. We saw both of these guys approach things the same way in the preseason and I don’t think there’s going to be a real desire to make a ton of plays from either side here. If there are defensive touchdowns or long jailbreaks or Sam Darnold/Carson Wentz get into a heartbreaking groove, then maybe we cross 40 points, but otherwise I like to keep that point total submerged.
I’m somewhat surprised by this sentence because I thought the Bills might just be a pick here, but the motivation angle is legit, as are the health concerns on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins obviously want to win the division. And the winner of that match wins the division title. There is a lot of motivation in this regard. The Dolphins would also greatly like to eliminate Buffalo from the playoffs. For the Bills, this game could be playoff or bust depending on what happens the rest of the weekend. Either way, if they win, they’ll win the AFC East, which no one thought was possible about a month ago. As a bonus for the Bills, the Pro Bowl rosters were released Wednesday night and Josh Allen, although he has produced 42 total touchdowns this season and has generally played crazy for much of the year , failed to qualify. NFL players are always looking for an edge and I think Allen will use that slight on Sunday night. The Dolphins defense is away from Bradley Chubb and the offense is away from Jaylen Waddle. The Bills defense is playing much, much better lately and Buffalo has righted the ship health-wise. The bills are rolling in here.
It’s pretty shocking that Antonio Pierce hasn’t already gotten the Raiders job, but it makes sense with what we know about Jim Harbaugh’s desire to return to the NFL and the hiring of Don Yee (agent of Tom Brady, plus Jimmy Garoppolo’s agent, so there are tons of ties to the Raiders in terms of previously positive negotiations). Mark Davis loves exceptional hires and Harbs would qualify, especially if he wins the game for Michigan and then returns to the NFL. Either way, we have a team in Las Vegas that is really looking to make one last push for the interim coach they want to hire full time against a team in Denver that might give him a call in a moment with Jarrett Stidham having succeeded Russell Wilson and the Broncos. completely eliminated from playoff contention.
The Cardinals just won the Super Bowl, beating the Eagles in Philadelphia to really ruin the season for Jonathan Gannon’s former team. The Seahawks are fighting for their playoff lives: they win and the Bears beat the Packers. I think Chicago is going to stay close to Green Bay in this game because the Packers defense probably won’t shut anyone down. Which means the Seahawks are very likely to keep their foot on the gas offensively and defensively throughout this game. Even though Seattle is monitoring the scoreboard — and they likely won’t get any updates until later in the game, if at all — Pete Carroll won’t let his team stop trying to compete. The Seahawks’ motivator factor is simply too high to ignore.
Buddyroe is a long sentence. It’s Week 18, which usually means chaos and the Cowboys are heavy favorites on the road, although they are home favorites and struggling to get away from JerryWorld. Digging a little deeper into the Cowboys’ performance on the road, I think you can make the case that they are perfectly positioned here to blow out Washington. Namely, the Cowboys’ road “struggles” may have more to do with playing good teams and getting them at a bad time (at prime time Niners, at Philly, at Buffalo, at Miami). The only really serious road loss came against the Cardinals, who were a place to sleep for a Dallas team that started out strong. The Commanders are likely (?) to start Sam Howell again and behind a bad offensive line he could have big problems against this Dallas pass rush. Washington’s defense hasn’t held anyone to fewer than 27 points since Week 9, when they beat the Patriots 20-17. It was November 5, their last victory. Ron Rivera’s final fight is unlikely to be inspiring.
