After a busy few weeks of football, the NFL is serving up a rather small slate in Week 14. A total of six teams are bye bye, which leaves us with 13 games to bite. While it may be smaller than what we’ve grown accustomed to, it still packs a punch with a number of interesting head-to-head matches, including seven divisional matchups.
We also have Tom Brady – fresh off a last-second win over the Saints on Monday – against his boyhood team in his hometown 49ers, which is sure to be a date. This game doesn’t fall under my five locks of the week – knocking .500 on the year – but I will highlight four divisional matchups and one game that can feature the biggest spread we’re going to see all of the time. year.
record 2022
Regular season
Locks of the week ATS: 30-31-4
TTY: 87-101-7
ML: 121-74
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Featured game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Don’t look now, but the Raiders are making a playoff push in the AFC. They’ve won three in a row and are just two games away from last place in the playoffs. More importantly for the purposes of our conversation here, Las Vegas is 3-0 ATS on this winning streak and the passing rush has really started to build. Since week 11, Josh McDaniels’ club have totaled 11 sacks and have a pressing percentage of 39%. To put that into better context, Vegas had 10 sacks from Week 1 through Week 10. Part of the reason for the upside is that Chandler Jones is coming home and has 20 winning streak pressures. Now, that Raiders front will go against a Rams offensive line that’s allowed a 41% pressure rating since Week 11, which ranks 28th in the NFL. That, with John Wolford sitting under center Los Angeles, doesn’t give much cause for belief that they’ll be able to keep pace with a Raiders offense that’s averaging nearly 30 points per game over this streak. of victories.
Projected score: Raiders 30, Rams 20
The choice : Raiders-6
Featured game | New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia clearly looks like the NFC favorite and put us off last week by taking the points with the Titans. That said, we’re not going to let this loss affect our decision-making here and we’re once again making the Eagles disappear from the numbers. Despite suffering only one loss during the year, Jalen Hurts and Co. were downright bad bets on the road, holding a 1-4 record against the spread at Lincoln Financial Field. . Meanwhile, New York has been among the best games on a week-over-week basis and is tied with the Bengals for a league 9-3 ATS record. Even further, the Giants are 3-0 ATS at home this year.
Projected rating: Eagles 24, Giants 23
The choice : Giants +7
Featured game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
After a disastrous outing on his debut for the Browns last week, I expect Deshaun Watson to play a little better, which is part of why I like the Over in this game. Other than that, it looks like a demolition in Cincinnati. The Bengals are getting hot at the right time and are tied with the Giants for the league’s best ATS record, which includes a 4-1 home ATS record. Joe Burrow is 0-4 against the Browns in his career, a mark he will look to improve on Sunday. Since Week 3, Burrow has completed 70% of his passes and has an NFL best passer rating of 111.4. With that line below the touchdown threshold, it’s easy to score points with a scorching burrow.
Projected score: Bengals 33, Browns 20
The choice : Bengals -6
Featured game | Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee was schooled by AJ Brown and the Eagles last week and will look to right the ship against a Jaguars defense that just allowed Detroit to drop 40 to them. Music City hasn’t been kind to the Jaguars, who haven’t won in Nashville since 2013. Since Ryan Tannehill became the starter, the Titans are 5-0 and have won four of those five games by 18 points or more. Tannehill also has a 125.3 passer rating on that stretch with zero interceptions and 12 touchdowns. In other words, they dominate this game. On top of that, I think there will be some urgency from this Tennessee team following Jon Robinson’s surprise layoff on Tuesday. With new assessors moving up or entering the building, every player can now play for their job, which is the kind of motivation that could make this game lousy and fast.
Projected score: Titans 27, Jaguars 14
The choice : Titans -3.5
Featured game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans
By any standard, the Cowboys are the best team in football. In principle, however, you cannot put 17 points there. Houston could easily hijack this game if Dallas gets up early and decides to curb its stars at some point in the second half to reduce injury risk. It almost happened just a few weeks ago with this Texas team when they hosted the Dolphins, who put in 30 in the first half and rested the starters for most of the second. There they racked up 15 points against the scrubs and came within a point of covering the 14 point gap. With this session at 17, you take the points and hope for a flurry of Dallas goals early that keeps the backdoor open late.
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Texans 14
The choice : Texas +17
Rest of the peloton
Vikings to Lions
Projected score: Lions 30, Vikings 27
The choice : Lions -2.5
Jets to Bills
Projected score: Bills 28, Jets 21
The choice : Throws +9.5
Ravens at Steelers
Projected score: Ravens 23, Steelers 20
The choice : Crows +3
Chiefs at Broncos
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Broncos 17
The choice : Heads -9
Buccaneers at 49ers
Projected score: Buccaneers 20, 49ers 17
The choice : Buccaneers +3.5
Panthers at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Panthers 24
The choice : Panthers +3.5
Dolphins at Chargers
Projected rating: Dolphins 33, Chargers 27
The choice : Dolphins -3
Patriots to Cardinals
Projected rating: Patriots 24, Cardinals 21
The choice : Patriots -1