Dajani Dimes continues to put together winning weeks. Vegas knows it all, but it was great to take advantage of them with that Washington Commanders -3 line against the Houston Texans. We were bitten by the Kansas City Chiefs against the Los Angeles Chargers. Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 against Justin Herbert, but is only 1-4 ATS!
Happy Thanksgivingmas to you and yours. If you’re looking to get some gaming action while in-laws argue over politics, then check out my comprehensive guide, here.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, thanks to the CBS Sports research team for making me look smart.
All odds are offered by Caesars Sportsbook.
ATS record among top five picks: 29-25-1
Overall record ATS: 88-70-6
Direct record: 106-57-1
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured game | Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Whatever faith I lost in the Cowboys after their loss to the Green Bay Packers, I regained after their 40-3 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. This is how a legitimate competitor reacts after a loss. As for the Giants, they were blown by the Detroit Lions at home on Sunday and suffered several notable injuries that will affect them during this short week.
It’s a big gap, but I want to put the points with the Cowboys. The Giants have lost two of their last three games after starting the season 6-1, and they strangely struggled on first downs – both on offense and defense. Daniel Jones’ unit is averaging 4.4 yards per play on first downs (second-fewest in the NFL), while the defense is averaging 6.9 yards per play on first downs ( most in the NFL). We saw what the Cowboys did to the Vikings last week. Tony Pollard recorded 189 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, while the defense allowed no touchdowns.
These are two teams moving in opposite directions. If Cooper Rush can beat the Giants by seven points on the road, what will Dak Prescott do at home?
The choice : Cowboys -10
Projected score: Cowboys 31-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured game | New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears
My two cents on the Zach Wilson bench:
- Zach Wilson was benched primarily because of comments he made after the loss to the New England Patriots.
- Zach Wilson probably deserves to be benched for his game alone.
- Mike White is going to bring some juice to this offense.
The Jets were favored by 4.5 points over the Bears before the Wilson bench news. Now they are favored by six points.
I said on Twitter before I even found out who was going to be the starting quarterback that the Jets were the best bet this week. They have a great team! All they need is a quarterback who can do basic passes, and I think White can do that. As for the Bears, Justin Fields has been in tears lately, but he hasn’t been able to lead Chicago to victory on his own. Now that he bumped into it, I don’t expect that to change. Give me the Jets to cover at home.
The choice : Throws -6
Projected score: Jets 24-16
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured game | Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons
I don’t like putting five points because it’s a weird number, but why not play the hot hand? If you follow my lucrative column, you’ve probably noticed I’ve been all over the commanders — picking them to upset the Indianapolis Packers and Colts straight to more money as best bets. This WAS -3 line last week was also too easy.
Ron Rivera’s frown has been upset since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback. The Commanders head coach had a habit of dropping F-bombs at press conferences and storming out of post-game media briefings. Now he shines on Zoom calls and talks about wearing Heinicke t-shirts. Washington should get a boost this week with the return of star pass rusher Chase Young – who we all know is going to bring some energy. Heinicke is 10-2-1 ATS in his last 13 starts. Give me the commanders at home.
The choice : Commanders -4.5
Projected rating: Commanders 28-21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured game | Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
I am not new to double digit spreads. I mean, how many people took the lowly Carolina Panthers to cover 13 points against a rested Baltimore Ravens team at home as a better bet like me? Miami beat the Cleveland Browns by 22 points in its last outing. What are the Dolphins going to do to Kyle Allen and the Texans at home after a bye?
The Dolphins have recorded three straight 30-point games – just shy of the longest streak in franchise history. The Texans, on the other hand, are averaging just 15.9 points per game. I expect a blast as the Texans seek to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
The choice : Dolphins -13.5
Projected rating: Dolphins 35-14
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Cardinals’ vacation in Mexico City couldn’t have been worse. One of their assistant coaches was fired for allegedly groping a woman, and then the team was destroyed by the San Francisco 49ers, 38-10. The Chargers also suffer a loss as they gave Mahomes and the Chiefs all they could handle before the MVP favorite added another win to his resume.
Did you know the Chargers are cover machines? Not only are they 7-3 ATS on the year, they’re 9-4 ATS on the road since 2021 (fourth-best in the NFL), which includes spread coverage in each of the last five games on the road. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 4-10 ATS at home since 2021, which ranks the worst in the NFL over that span. I think the Chargers have a really good offense with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back, plus that Josh Palmer kid isn’t bad either. At three points, I’ll take the Chargers.
The choice : Chargers -3
Projected rating: Chargers 28-24
Other Week 12 Picks
Bills (-9.5) 30-20 on Lions
Patriots (+2.5) 23-21 vs. Vikings
Ravens 28-27 vs. Jaguars (+4)
Buccaneers (-3.5) 26-21 against Browns
Titans (+3) 27-24 vs. Bengals
Panthers (+2) 17-14 over Broncos
Chiefs (-15.5) 30-13 vs Rams
Seahawks 24-22 vs. Raiders (+3.5)
49ers 28-21 vs. Saints (+9.5)
Eagles (-6.5) 29-21 vs. Packers
Steelers (+2.5) 25-20 over Colts
