The 14 NFL playoff teams are finally set. Some weren’t expected to make the playoffs halfway through the year and others needed to clinch a spot in the final week — and get some help. Ultimately, at least four teams each season qualified for the playoffs after failing to make the playoffs the previous year for the 34th consecutive season, showing just how much parity the NFL has year after year .
The Houston Texans went from worst to first in their division and the Cleveland Browns went from last place in the AFC North to the playoffs. In 25 of the last 28 seasons, at least one team has made the season’s playoffs after finishing last or tied for last place.
In 20 of the last 21 seasons, at least two teams have won their division after missing the playoffs. This season it was the Texans and Detroit Lions. As the playoffs unfold, here are some stories for each of the teams playing for a Super Bowl.
Lamar Jackson can’t win in the playoffs: Jackson won one playoff game in his career, on the road against the Titans. This narrative translates to Jackson’s poor performance in the 2019 AFC Divisional Round, when the Ravens had home-field advantage and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs before bowing out in Game 1 .
The Ravens are in the same situation this time around, but Jackson is a much better passer and his pocket presence has improved significantly. The Ravens can beat teams throwing the ball as well as running the ball. Jackson also turns the ball over at a significantly reduced rate.
This is a much different Ravens team than 2019.
Josh Allen’s gifts will keep the Bills heading into the Super Bowl: For the quality of player Allen, gifts are always a problem. Allen has 18 interceptions in 17 games, averaging 1.1 interceptions per game. Even though the Bills (11-6) came back from 6-6 down to win their fourth straight AFC East title, they should have been better than the record they finished with.
Allen is one of the few players capable of single-handedly leading a team to the Super Bowl. It can also cost a team a Super Bowl. The 21 giveaways are something to watch when playing top defenses in the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns
Turnovers will end the season ahead of schedule: The Browns finished the year with 35 giveaways, the most in the NFL. Cleveland had an interception rate of 3.51%, good for 31st in the league. The Browns’ -8 turnover rate is the second-worst of any team in the playoffs behind Kansas City.
Joe Flacco has eight interceptions and four fumbles (one lost) in his five starts, lost due to how well he has played for Cleveland since becoming the fourth quarterback to start a game for them. Cleveland doesn’t protect the football well, which could be a major problem against a DeMeco Ryans defense.
Their season is a failure without a conference championship game appearance: Winning a Super Bowl is Dallas’ goal, and owner Jerry Jones expects nothing less from his Cowboys. Dallas hasn’t reached the conference championship game since 1996, a span of 28 years.
There’s more pressure on the Cowboys to win after their third straight 12-win season, a year in which Dak Prescott played like the league’s MVP the majority of the year. If Dallas doesn’t win two playoff games, this season will be a dismal failure.
Detroit Lions
Dan Campbell will lose a playoff game with his aggression: The Lions aren’t afraid to keep a defense on its toes, as evidenced by 40 fourth-down attempts this season, the most among playoff teams. Detroit has started at fourth 118 times since Campbell took over in 2021, by far the most in the league.
Aggression is the reason the Lions are NFC North champions in Campbell’s third year, but the Lions head coach has cost his team games with that mindset (see all three attempts two-point conversion in Week 17 loss to the Cowboys). Campbell looks set to make a controversial decision at some point.
The run defense will finish its season in a wild card round: The Packers’ run defense isn’t exactly good, as Green Bay has allowed 131.6 rushing yards per game (28th in the NFL) and 4.5 yards per carry (27th in the NFL). This also contributes to 41.78% of opponents converting on third down (24th in NFL).
The Cowboys have a mediocre rushing attack, averaging 11.8 yards per game (14th in the NFL) and 4.08 yards per carry (19th in the NFL). This is a Green Bay defense that has allowed more than 100 rushing yards in eight of the last nine games.
With Dak Prescott and the Cowboys passing attack, the Packers will have a long afternoon if they can’t stop Tony Pollard and Co.
Houston Texans
Inexperience will cost them dearly in the playoffs: The Texans entered the playoffs with a rookie head coach in DeMeco Ryans and a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud, only the fifth rookie head coach and rookie quarterback to make the playoffs. Just because the Texans possess these factors doesn’t mean they can’t make a deep playoff run.
The 2008 Ravens went to the conference championship game with Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh, as did the 2009 Jets with Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan. The Texans have a path to winning a playoff game — and accomplishing more based on how Stroud plays.
If the regular season is any indication, Stroud will be ready for his playoff debut.
They still have a chance with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid: The Chiefs have reached the conference championship game in every season Mahomes and Reid have been together (with Mahomes as the starting quarterback). All of their AFC playoff games have been played at Arrowhead Stadium, which is expected to change this year.
Even with the offensive issues with pass blocking and dropping pass catchers, Mahomes still seems to find a way to take the Chiefs deep into January. That can’t be ignored, regardless of his — and the team’s — struggles on offense this year.
They have the best wide receiver duo in the NFC playoffs: Puka Nacua just broke the rookie record for receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486) while Cooper Kupp was productive in 12 games (737 yards). Kupp held the Triple Crown just two years ago and has already been very productive in the postseason.
If AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are healthy, they will compete for this honor. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks also give this duo a run for their money, as do Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Kupp and Nacua are the reason the Rams are tough to get out of in the playoffs.
It’s time to beat a winning team: The Dolphins have one win against a winning team (Christmas Eve against the Cowboys), but their record against teams over .500 is not good. The Dolphins are 1-5 against teams that finished with a winning record, losing four on the road.
Miami can change the narrative with a playoff victory, something the franchise hasn’t accomplished since 2000. The Dolphins can erase a lot of narratives about this team.
They are the easy choice for one person and it’s done: The Eagles suffered one of the biggest collapses in recent NFL memory, going from a 10-1 start to losing five of their last six and making the playoffs. Only the 1999 Dolphins went 1-5 in their last six games and reached the playoffs, and they won a playoff game (before losing 62-7 in the divisional round).
This team can’t stop anyone on defense (the Cardinals and Giants have them split) and the coach’s message is becoming stale. No matter the opponent, the Eagles just have the look of a team with an early exit.
TJ Watt must play for the Steelers to have a chance: The heart and soul of the Steelers is Watt, who will be a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year. Watt became the first player to lead the NFL in sacks in three different seasons and the Steelers defense is significantly better with him on the field.
The offense averaged just 17.5 points per game this season, the lowest score for a 10-win team since the 2005 Bears. The Steelers reached the playoffs on the strength of their defense at during the year, in which Watt played the most important role in the unit. They need Watt.
Ready for the Super Bowl: The 49ers are clearly the best team in the conference, seemingly unbeatable when Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are both on the field. The only team to really beat them over the last two months was the Ravens, but no team in the NFC has been able to challenge them since their three-game losing streak in October.
This may seem difficult, but if McCaffrey and Samuel are healthy, the 49ers are poised for a Super Bowl run. They also have a week to rest.
Running offense will lead to early playoff exit: Besides what Baker Mayfield has played this year, he’s gotten almost nothing in the running game. Tampa Bay finished with 87.3 rushing yards per game (31st in the NFL) and an average of 3.4 yards per carry (32nd in the NFL). Tampa Bay has rushed for fewer than 100 yards in 12 games this season, demonstrating how ineffective its ground game has been.
If the Buccaneers are one-dimensional in the playoffs, the NFC South champion will be once again.
