The final four have been officially set, and I would say these four teams are indeed the best in the NFL. This Sunday, we get a rematch of the AFC Championship game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs. Joe Burrow seemed to rise to a new level of stardom with the upset victory over the Buffalo Bills, and the Bengals defense also impressed. Patrick Mahomes is struggling with a sprained ankle ahead of this game. Could he really lose his fourth straight match against Burrow?
As for the NFC side, it’s Jalen Hurts versus Brock Purdy, as the Philadelphia Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams are so well balanced, so what will be the X factor in a win? Will Purdy finally look like a rookie, or should we just stop asking ourselves this question every week?
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, thanks to the CBS Sports research team for making me look smart.
All odds are offered by Caesars Sportsbook.
Playoff ATS record: 6-4
Direct playoff record: 9-1
ATS record among top five picks: 43-45-1
Overall record ATS: 135-129-7
Direct record: 177-92-2
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
Hurts and the Eagles erased any questions we might have had heading into the playoffs as they blasted the New York Giants by 31 points. Injuries accounted for three total touchdowns, while Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders combined for 202 rushing yards. The 49ers, meanwhile, beat the Dallas Cowboys 19-12 on a 10-3 run in the fourth quarter. San Francisco’s offense didn’t have its best outing, but George Kittle caught five passes for 95 yards.
This match features an elite offense against an elite defense. The 49ers defense and Eagles offense both ranked first among NFC teams in points per game and yards per game this season. Here’s the thing, though: The Eagles had the No. 2 defense in the NFL this season, right behind the 49ers. They are statistically the most complete team – and have home advantage.
Hurts led the NFL in completion percentage, passing touchdowns and a passer rating on throws for 25 or more yards on the ground this season. The 49ers defense ranks 25th or worse in all of those categories. Keep an eye out for big games on Sunday. Defensively, no team has recorded more sacks than the Eagles this season (75). They also had the second-highest pressure rating in the NFL this season behind the Cowboys. While Dallas lost to San Francisco on Sunday, Purdy had a 39.6 passer rating against pressure from the Cowboys. Brandon Graham, Haason Reddick and the rest of the Eagles passers know what they have to do.
With the number under a field goal, I’ll take Philly. Purdy will become the fifth true rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game on Sunday. The other four lost.
The choice : Eagles -2.5
Projected score: Eagles 27-23
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I don’t know about you, but I have a higher level of appreciation for Burrow after last week. The Bengals didn’t just upset the Bills, they beat them. Joey Franchise made Buffalo’s secondary look stupid, while the defense made Josh Allen uncomfortable. Now, just like last year, the Bengals are heading to Arrowhead for the AFC Championship Game.
Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes – making him the only quarterback to defeat Mahomes three times in a row. In all three games, the Bengals were either tied or trailing early in the fourth quarter. Burrow is averaging 327.3 passing yards per game against the Chiefs and has nine total touchdowns against just one turnover. His 121 passer rating against Kansas City is Burrow’s career best against any NFL opponent he’s faced at least twice. Add to that the fact that Mahomes isn’t 100%, and I don’t know how I can bet against Burrow and the Bengals.
Burrow vs. Mahomes is going to be what everyone’s talking about this week, but more attention should be paid to defenses. Either the Chiefs defense or the Bengals defense will decide the day. Cincy’s defense really surprised me last week against Buffalo. This unit recorded 21 pressures on Allen, which was the most pressures recorded by any team in the divisional round. DJ Reader tied a career high with five pushes, then Mike Hilton accounted for four pushes. Hilton in particular was running all over the court, and I guarantee he will have an impact on Sunday.
I don’t like it Nickname “Browhead” and that Eli Apple is tease the bear on social mediabut I just can’t bet against the Bengals right now.
The choice : Heads -1
Projected rating: Bengals 28-26
