While Red Bull currently remains the team to beat in F1, Newey has no doubt that the opposition is getting closer, as the world champion team finds it increasingly difficult to make gains with its car.
He sees no reason why any of his team’s competitors couldn’t even get ahead under the current rules, before things are shaken up by the new car and engines arriving from 2026 .
Newey says what’s happening now is no different from previous rule cycles, where one team starts with an advantage that gradually fades away as everyone gets a better handle on things.
Speaking to Autosport about how he envisions things playing out until 2026, he says history suggests the battles will get tighter before the new cars are likely to leave one team clearly in the lead.
“People lament that the results have been dominated, fortunately in our case by us, but by only one team during these rules so far,” he said.
“But that can obviously change. It’s definitely closing. And who knows what will happen next year? One of our rivals could easily overtake us.
“If you look at history, every time there is a rule change, more often than not, one team reads it better than another. And there is a period of domination.
Nico Rosberg, Mercedes F1 W05 Hybrid, ahead of Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W05
Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images
“We had that with Mercedes on the PU side, when there was a big PU change in 2014. We’ve had it at other times, there were regulation changes.
“We also saw this huge change in 2022, and the network is probably starting to converge. I’d be surprised if that wasn’t the case, and I think it’ll be a much closer fight for us this year than last year.
“And without a doubt, it will be an even closer fight for everyone next year. So, as everything starts to converge and fans start to get what they want, we have an even bigger change – because this is the first time I can remember that we’ve had a new PU and a new chassis at the same time.
“So the chances of this blowing up the grid must be pretty significant.”
F1 bosses are currently working to finalize the 2026 chassis regulations, which will include active aerodynamics to help maximize the performance of the new turbo hybrid powertrains.
And having not initially been very enthusiastic about the current rules, Newey suspects he will have a lot of growing up to do over the next few years.
“I think I’ll be honest with myself: Before these rules came out, I was somewhat critical of them and certainly quite uninspired at the time,” he explained.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
“It seemed like they were too prescriptive and wouldn’t allow much freedom. But there was a bit of a let-up towards the end, as a lot of other teams felt the same way. And then, with this slight relaxation, it turns out that there are actually huge amounts of detail involved in optimizing the car according to these rules.
But as the current ground effect era enters its third year, Newey says he’s seen signs that teams are reaching the limit of what’s possible.
“The gains teams make year-over-year heading into season three are reasonably significant,” he said.
“Certainly, on our side, we are definitely flattening out our aerodynamic development rates in terms of percentage gains per month. They are definitely starting to have asymptotes, as you would expect with any set of regulations.
“So in that sense, maybe, from a technical standpoint, it’s about time we got a new set!”
