James Harden wanted to leave Houston. Yesterday he made his wish come true.
In a successful four-team trade that sent shockwaves through the NBA, the Rockets distributed the disgruntled superstar to the Nets, in return receiving a bunch of players and four first-round picks. Harden now joins former teammates Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, giving Brooklyn a fearsome Big 3 they hope to reach the NBA Finals.
The Nets’ chances of winning the NBA title immediately exploded after the trade, dropping from +600 to +300 at BetMGM. This translates to an implied probability jump from 14.3% to 25%. The Nets now have the second best odds to win the championship, behind only the Lakers (+250). Brooklyn is now a -145 favorite to win the Atlantic Division and a +125 favorite to win the Eastern Conference. Harden is +225 to score at least 60 points in any game for the Nets the rest of the season.
We now turn our attention to the betting action on Thursday, where we have a betting slate loaded with 5 NBA games, 11 NHL games and over 35 College Hoops games. For an update on Thursday’s betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let’s take a moment to look at the early betting trends for the young NBA season …
Barking dogs
We just went through a season in the NFL where the dogs recorded a 55.2% ATS score. So far, this canine trend has continued in the NBA. Across 164 games, the NBA Dogs are 95-71 ATS (57.2%). Road dogs were particularly profitable, ranging from 58 to 35 ATS (62.4%). Road dogs with lines swollen by at least 1 point scored 18-9 ATS (67%). Think of a road team ranging from + 5 to + 6, or + 10 to + 11.5. These are unique backlash betting opportunities where the public generally takes care of the home favorite, providing added value in the form of extra points for the road dog.
No advantage in the field
One of the biggest changes this NBA season is the lack of fans in the stands due to COVID-19 precautions. Without a home crowd to cheer you on (or intimidate the visiting team), the home teams have struggled to cover the numbers this season. The road teams are 92-72 ATS (56.1%).
Under-collection
The public is psychologically biased in favor of betting on. After all, earning points is a lot more fun. No one wants to sweat a boring, low scoring game. Bettors know this and will sometimes shade the total above. This usually creates value for the pennies. This has been especially true so far this season, with the Unders reaching 91-75 (54.8%).
Top ATS Teams
Bulls 8-3 ATS Pacers 7-4 ATS Suns 7-4 ATS Spurs 7-4 ATS Mavs 6-4 ATS Celtics 6-4 ATS
Worst ATS teams
Nuggets 3-8 ATS Raptors 3-7 ATS Rockets 3-6 ATS
Best Over Teams
Nuggets 9-2 Wizards 8-3 Kings 8-4 Bulls 7-4 Nets 8-5 Bucks 7-5 Clippers 7-5
Best Under Teams
Cavs 10-2 Hawks 8-2 Hornets 9-3 Knicks 9-3 Lakers 9-4 Mavs 7-3
