Macomb County, Michigan, home to the so-called Democrats Reagan and Trump, is not what it used to be. It can make all the difference for former Vice President Joe Biden who has the chance to beat Bernie Sanders, his rival for the Democratic presidential nomination in this county from the outside outside of Detroit – the kind of place that puts the American presidents in power.
Voters will face a wise choice between the two candidates for the first time on Tuesday, when Michigan (along with a handful of other states) will vote in its primary without a split ticket to distract them.
The Democrats’ choice is simple: who is more likely to beat President Donald Trump in November, Mr. Biden or Mr. Sanders? In a few places, this choice will matter more than Macomb, a working-class county with potholes that alone gave Trump his win in Michigan in 2016, when he won the county by 48,000 votes and the state by minus 11,000.
A lot could depend on how the Macomb African Americans vote and if they happen to be. The power of African-American voting in South Carolina set fire to Mr. Biden’s moribund campaign before Super Tuesday. To win Macomb, he hopes the same thing will happen there. By the time Macomb helped usher in the Reagan era in 1980 – when union democrats overthrew parties for a populist, as they would later for Trump – the county had almost no Afro residents -Americans. The current Macomb is estimated to be at least 12.2% of African Americans, up from just 2.7% in 2000.
“The influx of African-American voters into Macomb dampened Bernie’s vote” during the 2016 primary, said Joe DiSano, consultant for the Macomb Democratic Campaign. Sanders narrowly lost the county to Hillary Clinton, but narrowly won the state that year. “It will likely have a negative impact on him again this year,” he said, predicting that Mr. Biden will win county and state double-digits. “[Mr Biden] kills him among voters 50 years and older and African American voters. I’m starting to think we may be seeing a suburban wave of people who just think they’re fed up with Trump, a national moment of reason, “he said.
Diversity therefore probably had an impact on the Democratic primary, but that was not enough to defeat Mr. Trump in 2016 and Mr. Di Sano thinks that it will not guarantee either a Democratic victory over the Republicans this year.
Joel Rutherford, president of the Macomb Black Democrat Caucus, says demographics only make a difference “if people show up to vote”. He criticizes the local Democratic Party for focusing too little on participation, noting that the influx of non-whites into Macomb has not only been from African Americans but also from Bangladeshi and Hmong immigrants.
Susan Demas, former consultant to the Democratic campaign, says there has been a “backlash.” “Some white Macomb voters liked the county stereotype as an alternative to Detroit (mostly black),” she said. “Diversification has created tensions.” The demographic change could therefore harm the Macomb Democrats as much as it helps them, some residents say, adding that the growth of the black population mainly occurred between 2000 and 2016. This did not stop Mr. Trump in 2016 .
Ed Bruley, president of the Democratic Party for Macomb, agrees that the reconquest of Trump Democrats is a long shot. He says the party’s real target is the tens of thousands of people who went to the polls in 2016 to vote for other officials, but refused to choose a presidential candidate.
But Nelson Westrick is one of those Trump Democrats who says he will not be tempted to return to the fold at all. “Democrats are all elite snobs and they look down on the average people,” he said, showing me a Facebook message, allegedly from a Democrat, saying “if I get the coronavirus, I will attend as many Trump rallies as I can. “
So yes, a lot has changed in Macomb – but much more has remained the same. Diversity could help Mr. Biden beat Mr. Sanders there Tuesday. But it may not matter in the end, if none of them can beat Mr. Trump. I’m not betting on Macomb giving up his taste for Republican populists anytime soon. It has taken decades.
Macomb County, Michigan, home to the so-called Democrats Reagan and Trump, is not what it used to be. It can make all the difference for former Vice President Joe Biden who has the chance to beat Bernie Sanders, his rival for the Democratic presidential nomination in this county from the outside outside of Detroit – the kind of place that puts the American presidents in power.
Voters will face a wise choice between the two candidates for the first time on Tuesday, when Michigan (along with a handful of other states) will vote in its primary without a split ticket to distract them.
The Democrats’ choice is simple: who is more likely to beat President Donald Trump in November, Mr. Biden or Mr. Sanders? In a few places, this choice will matter more than Macomb, a working-class county with potholes that alone gave Trump his win in Michigan in 2016, when he won the county by 48,000 votes and the state by minus 11,000.
A lot could depend on how the Macomb African Americans vote and if they happen to be. The power of African-American voting in South Carolina set fire to Mr. Biden’s moribund campaign before Super Tuesday. To win Macomb, he hopes the same thing will happen there. By the time Macomb helped usher in the Reagan era in 1980 – when union democrats overthrew parties for a populist, as they would later for Trump – the county had almost no Afro residents -Americans. The current Macomb is estimated to be at least 12.2% of African Americans, up from just 2.7% in 2000.
“The influx of African-American voters into Macomb dampened Bernie’s vote” during the 2016 primary, said Joe DiSano, consultant for the Macomb Democratic Campaign. Sanders narrowly lost the county to Hillary Clinton, but narrowly won the state that year. “It will likely have a negative impact on him again this year,” he said, predicting that Mr. Biden will win county and state double-digits. “[Mr Biden] kills him among voters 50 years and older and African American voters. I’m starting to think we may be seeing a suburban wave of people who just think they’re fed up with Trump, a national moment of reason, “he said.
Diversity therefore probably had an impact on the Democratic primary, but that was not enough to defeat Mr. Trump in 2016 and Mr. Di Sano thinks that it will not guarantee either a Democratic victory over the Republicans this year.
Joel Rutherford, president of the Macomb Black Democrat Caucus, says demographics only make a difference “if people show up to vote”. He criticizes the local Democratic Party for focusing too little on participation, noting that the influx of non-whites into Macomb has not only been from African Americans but also from Bangladeshi and Hmong immigrants.
Susan Demas, former consultant to the Democratic campaign, says there has been a “backlash.” “Some white Macomb voters liked the county stereotype as an alternative to Detroit (mostly black),” she said. “Diversification has created tensions.” The demographic change could therefore harm the Macomb Democrats as much as it helps them, some residents say, adding that the growth of the black population mainly occurred between 2000 and 2016. This did not stop Mr. Trump in 2016 .
Ed Bruley, president of the Democratic Party for Macomb, agrees that the reconquest of Trump Democrats is a long shot. He says the party’s real target is the tens of thousands of people who went to the polls in 2016 to vote for other officials, but refused to choose a presidential candidate.
But Nelson Westrick is one of those Trump Democrats who says he will not be tempted to return to the fold at all. “Democrats are all elite snobs and they look down on the average people,” he said, showing me a Facebook message, allegedly from a Democrat, saying “if I get the coronavirus, I will attend as many Trump rallies as I can. “
So yes, a lot has changed in Macomb – but much more has remained the same. Diversity could help Mr. Biden beat Mr. Sanders there Tuesday. But it may not matter in the end, if none of them can beat Mr. Trump. I’m not betting on Macomb giving up his taste for Republican populists anytime soon. It has taken decades.