The Atlanta Falcons shocked the NFL world in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with their No. 8 overall pick. Few predicted Penix would be selected in the top 10, especially by a team that made the most expensive free agency addition in quarterback Kirk Cousins, giving the former Viking a $180 million contract over four years.
Instead of recruiting for an immediate need and drafting a potential blue-chip player to help them win a Super Bowl, the Falcons drafted a replacement who could sit on the bench for several years. This was a questionable choice, but there are possible avenues for why it ends up being a good choice. We cannot pronounce a sentence before the trial.
With that said, let’s look at some pros and cons of the Penix choice.
Benefits
1. QB solidified for the future
Let’s start with why the Falcons took Penix. They view him as a legitimate top-10 talent with franchise quarterback potential. There would have been several teams try to climb into the top 10 to recruit Penix, so the Falcons were not alone in seeing this prospect.
Penix notably had two strong campaigns after suffering season-ending injuries four straight years from 2018-2021 during his time at Indiana. After transferring to Washington, he posted back-to-back 4,600+ yard campaigns and was a finalist for the 2023 Heisman Trophy.
Last year, Penix led the FBS in passing yards with 4,903 and became the first player since Patrick Mahomes to record multiple seasons of more than 4,500 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns. He also led the FBS in completions (60) and touchdown passes (26) over 25 air yards over the past two years. The 37 completions of 25+ air yards recorded in 2023 were the most by any FBS quarterback in the last FIVE seasons.
By NFL Media, New Falcons head coach Raheem Morris wanted to put a succession plan in place for Cousins – a “natural” plan. Yes, this is the “Packers model”, although it is a much more aggressive version. When Steve Wyche asked Morris, does picking Penix make you better for 2024? The coach responded by saying he hopes to coach this team beyond 2024 only.
In his opinion, the Falcons have stunk under center since the end of the Matt Ryan era.
2. Valuable insurance now
Quarterback is the most important position in football, and having a good backup is something that could save your season, or even change the trajectory of your franchise depending on how good he is. Yes, taking a backup quarterback at No. 8 is a big deal, but if something were to happen to Cousins — who will soon be 36 and just got rid of that torn Achilles — Penix is someone fans will root for The Falcons should have confidence in Taylor Heinicke or any other arm they bring into training camp.
3. HC and GM save more time
This is my least favorite “pro”, but it’s one nonetheless. Let’s say Cousins gets completely washed out, hypothetically, and the Falcons end up being one of the worst teams in the league. Penix’s entry into the lineup somewhat resets the clock for general manager Terry Fontenot and Morris.
For example, Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears could have been fired this offseason and few people would have cried foul. All of a sudden he has Caleb Williams thanks to the incredible Ryan Poles trade last March, and now there’s optimism surrounding his team. Penix is that clock resetter – and it’s already on the list.
Cousins doesn’t even have to be terrible. Let’s say he’s average and decides to retire after a few seasons. Penix once again gives fans a reason to be excited.
For more coverage of the project, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on “With first choice” — our all year round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find “With First Choice” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Youtubeetc.
The inconvenients
1. A prized addition in angry free agency
Cousins apparently had no idea his Falcons were going to take a quarterback at No. 8 overall, a move that left him “shocked” and “disappointed.” according to NFL Media. When the Packers upset Aaron Rodgers by drafting Jordan Love in 2020, he responded by winning back-to-back NFL MVPs. We’ll see if Cousins can do the same. Wait, maybe it could be a pro?
2. Penix is already 23 years old; far from being a young recruit
The draft and stash method doesn’t seem as appealing when the player you’re stashing is an older rookie. Penix began his college career in 2018 and will turn 24 in a few weeks. How long will he have to wait? How old will he be when he gets his first chance to become a full-time starter? Love, for example, was 24 at the start of last season.
3. Spending valuable assets on an already defined position
Once again, Atlanta awarded the richest free agency contract this offseason, then followed it up a month later by spending a first-round pick at the same position. Falcons fans won’t be happy if someone like Rome Odunze, Byron Murphy II or Dallas Turner becomes an immediate impact talent.
