Although the Mega Bond auction had an 85% acceptance rate and significantly reduced outstanding debt in August, September and October, the cost was high. The term for those three months was $2.5 billion and the Secretary of Finance got $2 billion. But the debt ratio is high because the bundle of bonds that went into the exchange had fixed rate discount bonds now turned into double bonds that adjust to the official dollar or inflation price .What is best for the investor as these new securities mature? The double bonus expires in one year, in July, August and September 2023.
The high percentage of acceptance is largely due to the public sector, 62% of the bidders having chosen the longest securities, which expire in September, were the Central Bank, which exchanged adjusted bonds for CERs purchased last so that the parities did not diverge, and the public, including ANSES . body. The rest were banks that were practically forced to participate due to balance sheet problems.
Among voluntary private investors, only 20% agreed to buy back their shares. Prefer to pay 80% when dueThese investors represent 15% of the $480,000 million that became sunk and expired in those three months.
“Beyond the success of this Treasury loan exchange, In the short term, concrete and specific measures are necessary, aimed at dealing with the budgetary front on the one hand and the foreign exchange front on the other., within the framework of a macro program corresponding to the vision of general equilibrium which is lacking. If it doesn’t appear soon, the wart effect will start to fade,” said Federico Furiece, director of Anchor Latin America and professor at the University of Torcuato di Tella.
A further 5-6 point rise in inflation and interest rate data is expected on Thursday after the tender, which will raise the benchmark rate to between 65 and 66% per annum and the fixed term rate 30 days. 66 and 67% per year. In other words, they will remain negative while the Treasury borrows at rates that take into account headline inflation.
The fiscal dollar edged higher after heavy losses on AL30D (-3.6%) and GD30D (-2.8%) bonds used for trading. Growth has been uneven. The MEP rose 26 cents to $279.20 and the cash with settlement near $290 closed at $287.66, an increase of $3.90 (+1.4%). “Blue” returned to a price of $291 after rising $1.
“Beyond the fact that this exchange of Treasury debt went well, concrete and specific measures are needed in the short term, aimed at resolving the fiscal front on the one hand and the exchange front on the other” (Federico Furiece)
In the official market, the rate of devaluation accelerated and the wholesale dollar rose 28 cents to $133.85. In any case, the trading volume was as low as in the previous round and reached $208 million. Due to the lack of exporters, the Central Bank was forced to sell $64 million to meet imports. Thus, reserves remained at the critical level of $32,067 million, down $88 million.
“The evolution of the dollar has not been good. Although they did not come back to the $350 level, keep in mind that the rally started at $210. So their close to $290 is not a good sign. It should be concerning that they have not taken any further downtrends. The market wants more measures than announcements. They want to know how they are going to carry out the measures they have announced. The rally has been modest and the concern is whether this will be the start of a trend. I see the suspicious market. Looks like they didn’t know where to go. What is worrying is the question of reserves because no one sees how to cut this trend. It is true that they will reduce energy imports in the second half of this month, but even then, with the stocks they hold, there is no incentive for the dollar to enter. There will be liquidations, but they are not going to expire yet. As long as the stock exists, no one is going to bring in the dollar and the difference is greatly impacted and resolved not by devaluation but with less stock and fewer pesos. These are the two variables that will reduce the difference without devaluationsaid the financial analyst Christian butler,
Meanwhile, debt bonds paid the cost of the New York stock market crash and the fund changed course when it saw its assets tumble on fears over news of a rise in inflation.
This is why the Emerging EME indicator fell by 0.2%, but Argentina was more affected and the country’s risk increased by no less than 104 units (+4.5%) to 2,470 base points and level before Sergio’s appointment. reached at. Massa as Minister of Economy.
In contrast, Brazil’s EWZ rose 0.2% after the July deflation release.
“The evolution of the dollar has not been good. Although they did not come back to the $350 level, keep in mind that the rally started at $210. So we have them close to $290, that’s not a good sign” (Christian Butler)
The exchange felt the change in the wind and only traded $1,193 million. Major stock indices closed down 1.63% for the S&P Merval peso and 3.09% for the dollar. The titles most affected are those northern gas carrier (-4.81%), Crete (-4.56%) y macro bank (-4.27%).
ADRs – participation certificates – listed on the New York Stock Exchange – traded at only $5,345 million and their balances were negative. The biggest drop was for the financial sector. macro bank 5.9% lost; french bank5% y observation4.5%.
Today’s fate is determined by US inflation. A huge amount of money is poured into the sector when the New York Stock Exchange reacts. Conversely, when they fall, dollars return to the United States to take refuge in Treasury bonds.
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