Russia unnecessarily bolsters defenses in Belgorod, UK says
The British Ministry of Defense said Russia’s decision to expand its defensive positions along its international border with Ukraine and deep into the Belgorod border region reflected a mistaken belief that Ukraine could attempt to invade Russia.
A view of damaged structures in Belgorod, Russia after alleged attacks, seen November 6, 2022.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The UK said in its latest intelligence update that the recent strengthening of defenses in Belgorod may be due to Russian authorities wanting to promote a baseless idea that Ukraine could invade.
“There is a realistic possibility that Russian authorities will encourage defensive preparations on internationally recognized Russian territory to rekindle patriotic sentiment. However, this likely illustrates the genuine (but false) belief of some Russian decision makers that there is a credible threat of invasion by Ukrainian forces,” the UK said.
“The lack of strategic assessment is one of the critical weaknesses of the Russian central government architecture: as highlighted by Russia’s initial decision to invade Ukraine,” he noted, adding: ” Unbiased official analysis is almost certainly frequently undermined by a tendency towards groupthink and politically expedient conclusions.
In its latest intelligence update, the ministry noted that trenching has been reported in Belgorod since at least April, “but new construction is likely more elaborate systems, designed to fend off mechanized assaults.” In addition, the governor of Belgorod announced on Tuesday that he was setting up local “self-defense units”.
Russia has accused Ukrainian forces of shelling Belgorod and other border regions repeatedly during the war, killing a number of civilians in the process. Ukraine has claimed no incidents on Russian territory and at one point accused Russia of staging an attack to stoke anti-Ukrainian sentiment.
—Holly Ellyatt
Belarus to move military equipment and personnel to check response to ‘terrorism’
A Ukrainian border guard conducts reconnaissance with a monocular near Ukraine’s border with Russia and Belarus in November. Ukraine’s military has expressed concern over the “growing threat” of a Russian offensive through Belarus.
Sergei Supinsky | AFP | Getty Images
Belarus is moving military equipment and its security forces on Wednesday and Thursday to check its response to possible “acts of terrorism”.
State news agency BelTA quoted the country’s Security Council as saying that during checks it would temporarily restrict the movement of citizens on certain public roads, and said the use of toy weapons for the purpose of training was planned.
Any military activity by Belarus is being watched closely in Ukraine for signs that its forces could go to war and help its ally Russia. Belarus has seemed reluctant to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, but it conducts joint military exercises with Russia and has a joint unit with its neighbor.
—Holly Ellyatt
Conditions for official pro-Russian claims are ripe for Bakhmut’s capture
Pro-Russian official Denis Pushilin, acting leader of the separatist “Donetsk People’s Republic” in eastern Ukraine, claimed that Russian forces in the region – arguably the most contested region in the war in Ukraine at present – may soon be in a position to advance and capture Bakhmut.
Denis Pushilin (C), leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) separatists arrives to give a press conference in Donetsk, April 11, 2022.
Alexander Nemenov | AFP | Getty Images
Pushilin told TASS news agency that the “liberation” of Mayorsk near Horlivka, just south of Bakhmut, “created the preconditions for advancing towards Dzerzhinsk [known as ‘Toretsk’ in Ukrainian] and the subsequent encirclement of Artemovsk” – the Russian name for Bakhmut.
He said units of Russia’s state-sanctioned private military company, the Wagner Group, were working “in Bakhmut” and had “some successes”, echoing the words of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who said said on Tuesday that a number of settlements near Bakhmut had come under the control of Russian armed forces.
The fighting in Donetsk has turned into bloody trench warfare in recent months with fierce battles over every kilometer of territory and settlement surrounding Bakhmut.
Russia is believed to view the town as a key target, believing its capture will allow it to cut Ukrainian supply lines and allow its forces to advance towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk north of Bakhmut.
CNBC was unable to verify Pushilin’s claims. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Wednesday morning that Russian forces continued to focus their efforts on “conducting offensive operations” in the area around Bakhmut.
This is not the first time that Pushilin has claimed Bakhmut is close to encirclement, having said the same last week. Ukraine vehemently denies it is even close to being half-encircled, with an official telling CNBC that Russia is seeing massive personnel losses in the region and few gains, although the official admits the fighting was intense.
—Holly Ellyatt
Blinken says US does not encourage or allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia
US Secretary of State Blinken attends the Free Speech Roundtable, in New York, US, September 19, 2022.
Craig Ruttle | Reuters
The US has neither encouraged nor allowed Ukrainians to strike inside Russia, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, but reiterated Washington’s determination to ensure Kyiv has the equipment she needs to defend herself.
A third Russian airfield was set on fire by a drone strike, a day after Ukraine demonstrated an apparent new ability to penetrate hundreds of miles (km) deep into Russian airspace with attacks on two airbases Russians. Kyiv did not directly claim responsibility for the strikes, but celebrated them nonetheless.
—Reuters
At the UN, the United States and Russia accuse each other of not being interested in talks with Ukraine
Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia speaks to reporters regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S. April 4, 2022.
andrew kelly | Reuters
The United States and Russia have accused each other of not being interested in Ukraine peace talks amid growing calls at the United Nations for a ceasefire and diplomacy to end the war sparked by the invasion of Moscow nine months ago.
Russia’s UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told a UN Security Council meeting on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine that Moscow noted ‘the interest of a significant majority’ of member states of the United Nations for a diplomatic settlement.
“We are reacting to this very seriously. We confirm our willingness to conduct negotiations,” he said, but added that the aim would be “to eradicate the root causes that forced us to start our special military operation (SMO)”.
—Reuters
Turkey says Finland must end arms embargo to join NATO
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu speaks during a press conference in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 3, 2022.
shadati | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
Finland must publicly declare that it is lifting an arms embargo against Turkey to gain Ankara’s approval for NATO membership, Turkey’s foreign minister has said.
Mevlut Cavusoglu made the comments ahead of the visit of Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen, who will discuss his country’s bid to join the military alliance with his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar on Thursday.
“The Finnish Defense Minister’s visit to Turkey is important because we have not yet heard a statement from Finland saying that it has lifted its arms embargo against us,” Cavusoglu told reporters. “We expect such a statement from there.”
Sweden and Finland abandoned their longstanding policies of military non-alignment and asked to join the alliance after Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February, fearing Russia would target them next.
— Associated Press
Hungary vetoes 18 billion euro aid package for Ukraine
Hungary has vetoed an 18 billion euro ($18.9 billion) EU aid package for Ukraine, meaning it cannot go ahead and that the European Commission will have to find other ways of continuing to provide aid to Ukraine until 2023.
“Orban is going into full escalation,” a Green Party member of the European Parliament tweeted in response to the news.
The move is seen as a way for Hungarian President Viktor Orban, a longtime Putin ally, to force the EU to give Hungary its share of recovery funds, some of which have been blocked by the EU due to violations of the bloc’s laws.
The European Commission will now consider ways to “provide the necessary solution to Ukraine as early as January”, EU Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn said.
Czech Finance Minister Zbynek Stanjura said he had asked his EU colleagues to work on “a solution backed by 26 member states” that could circumvent Hungary’s veto.
“We weren’t able to embrace the package as a whole but we won’t be discouraged,” Stanjura said. “Our ambition remains to start disbursements to Ukraine in January.”
—Natasha Turak
Kremlin says there is no prospect of peace talks with Ukraine at this time
Moscow says it agrees with the United States that a lasting peace is needed in Ukraine, but sees no prospect of talks in that direction at present.
“Let the result be a just and lasting peace, we can agree with that,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, referring to comments made by US Secretary of State Antony on Monday. Blinken. Blinken said the war in Ukraine would “almost certainly end in diplomacy” and that a “just and lasting peace” was essential.
“But as far as the prospects for some sort of negotiations, we don’t see any at the moment,” Peskov said.
He added that for talks to take place, Russia would have to have achieved the goals of its “special military operation”, the term the Kremlin has been using since February to describe its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
—Natasha Turak
