THIS WEEK Shinzo Abe became the oldest Prime Minister in Japanese history, with 2,886 days in office. He stung Taro Katsura, who served three times in the early 20th century, a remote age. But to win the record for the longest uninterrupted period in power, Abe – who was briefly Prime Minister in 2006-2007, pursued by health problems, before returning to power in 2012 – will have to stay until 24 August. Many remember the man he had to beat, including Mr. Abe: Eisaku Sato was his great uncle. Abe is also the son of a Minister of Foreign Affairs and grandson of another notable post-war Prime Minister, Nobusuke Kishi. In Japan, fate favors certain families over others.
Sato’s time in power, from 1964 to 1972, was a golden age. East-West rivalry was a fixed and predictable thing, and Japan was firmly placed under fully paid American protection. He was able to focus on staggering growth of 10% per year, driven by exports to the West. Even the Vietnam War was good for pacifist Japan, generating demand. Meanwhile, a dose of inflation has kept debts under control.
When Mr. Abe took office in 2012, he inherited a very different Japan. The graying population was decreasing. The stock market has lost two-thirds of its peak. Growth has been slow and deflation debilitating – not least because it has limited government revenues. The Japanese feared that the world would pass them. Mr. Abe changed psychology. Japan, he said, “is back”.
Marketing was tricky: “Abenomics” as a structural reform program never lived up to what it claimed on the label. But Abe was lucky: a resumption of global growth. He added amounts of deficit spending. Monetary tinkering led to a sharp drop in the currency, a tourism boom and a rise in the stock markets. Young Japanese non-graduates are now confident in their work – one reason why Japan is not a breeding ground for populism. Problems remain. Despite efforts to increase female employment, women are still struggling to shine, particularly in Abe’s predominantly male government. Meanwhile, the huge state debts and social benefits for the elderly are being supported by a shrinking workforce. However, the crisis that this could generate one day will concern a future Prime Minister.
The world is becoming aware of Japan again – think this year about the enthronement of a new emperor and the success of the Rugby World Cup; next year, the Tokyo Olympics will be a sensation. Abe, a tireless traveler, promotes open markets even as America turns inward. The improvement in relations with certain other Asian democracies, in particular Australia and India, constitutes a cover against an increasing China and an unpredictable America. The same goes for a stronger defensive position, pushing the limits of Japan’s pacifist constitution.
Mr. Abe, a nationalist, has never had a truck with a masochism of war guilt. Like his grandfather (whom the Americans have imprisoned on suspicion of war crimes) and his great-uncle before him, he regards American protection as a necessary but temporary expedient. At Kishi’s grave in 2012, Mr. Abe promised to “regain true independence” from Japan. Yet his dream of excising the pacifist parts of the constitution will almost certainly be grounded in a lack of support.
Despite this, he and his revisionist allies in his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have moved Japan to the right, with insidious consequences. The move soured relations with neighbors, including China and, most seriously, South Korea. At home, it has undermined press freedom and reduced public space for the dissemination of contentious issues. Older Japanese people are more concerned about Abe’s nationalism than younger people – and in 2016, he lowered the voting age.
No opposition is bothering Mr. Abe, so expect him to break Sato’s record. In theory, he must resign at the latest in September 2021: there is no time limit to be Prime Minister, but the LDP has a nine-year term as president, which he holds. The bet has long been that, taking advantage of the success of the Olympic Games, he will announce his retirement as Prime Minister next fall. But it is far from clear LDP could succeed him. Another possibility therefore emerges: that Mr. Abe call early legislative elections next year before the start of the Olympic Games.
That would give him the mandate to serve his LDP presidency. Even then, it would not take much to rewrite the party constitution to allow it to serve longer. And so the most revealing legacy of Mr. Abe could turn out to be the lack of a successor.■
This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the title “Shinzo Abe’s Disc Roll”