IF BANYAN HAD choosing a country to emerge from a pandemic would surely be Japan. Bath engravings from the early 19th century bear witness to Japan’s old and admirable cult of cleanliness. Modern Japanese have been quick to put on a face mask for the first sniff for years, out of consideration for others. And the population reacts quickly to public messages.
The hygiene measures recommended against covid-19 since mid-January focus on frequent hand washing. This surely contributed to slowing the spread of the coronavirus, especially since of the 1,035 cases of covid-19 and 12 deaths from Japan, most are associated with a cruise ship detained for weeks off Yokohoma. A striking and positive side effect is already apparent: unlike Europe or America, doctors report large drops in cases of ordinary flu, not only compared to previous years but also with the first part of the winter. Given that 3,300 deaths were attributed to influenza in Japan in 2018, good hygiene instilled in recent months may well have saved many more lives than Covid-19 claims.
However, social tensions have manifested themselves in recent days. In Tokyo, scuffles erupted in the queues for masks outside pharmacies. The panic buying of toilet paper left the shelves bare. A photograph of toilet paper rolls in public toilets chained to their dispenser with a bicycle lock did the trick. Although he is hardly “the Lord of the flies”, he is quite unusual in such a high country.
Blame a flurry of doubt on the government of the usually affirmative Prime Minister, Abe Shinzo. His problems seem, precisely, to have started with the cruise ship, the Diamond princess. When cases of covid-19, contracted abroad, became evident among the 3,700 people on board, measures to isolate them failed. The ship was, as one passenger said, a floating petri dish, while the number of infected rose to over 700, with seven dead. Extraordinarily, the crew was ultimately left ashore from the infected vessel, and Japanese passengers were allowed to return home on public transport, without further quarantine.
In terms of crisis management, Japan is in good shape. After the Kobe earthquake in 1995, yakuza (gangsters) have set up soup kitchens, government assistance has been so slow to arrive. Bureaucratic disarray reigned in the Diamond princessManipulates too. European ambassadors with nationals on board have complained that they do not know who to call for government. Fans wondered if Mr. Abe, invisible during the crisis, had lost contact. His so far unassailable poll scores have dropped sharply.
To contain the damage to his reputation and to the coronavirus, on February 27, Mr. Abe took the initiative, telling all schools to close until April. Preparing for the worst, this week he rushed legislation to declare a state of emergency. And he unveiled a package of emergency expenses.
The asserted Abe is therefore back. So much so that questions arise on the advice of experts, if any, on which he relied to make the decision of his school. New social tensions will surely emerge, especially for working mothers (it never seems to be fathers) who must now accumulate weeks of day-care. “The government does not understand what it is to raise children,” complains a mother.
The government says Japan will return to normal in April. It seems implausible. A state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, which was supposed to put relations between the two countries on the list on an equal footing, has already been postponed. There are few political costs to Abe – after all, the nationalists who supported his rise to power have complained about the reception of the Chinese dictator.
Many more Olympics in Tokyo this summer. Abe intends to encourage them to promote patriotism, which he deplores among the ordinary Japanese. He wants the games to make Japan open, global and even multicultural. And, while largely overwhelmed by the budget, they must crown the Prime Minister’s seven-year rule.
The cancellation of the games would cause not only disappointment among ordinary Japanese but also anger at the expense of the expenses they have already had to bear. But a pandemic would make the decision with his hands – no less, says Nakano Koichi of the University of Sophia, because the Olympic village would be “a cruise ship on land”. Bet on a postponement of the games at least and on a long time before the popularity of the Prime Minister resplendent.
This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the title “Flu jabs”
