In 2015 I invited Ivanka Trump to join the FT table at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. At that time, her father had yet to announce his intention to run for president, and she was not a figure of global controversy. But even then, I was struck by its dedication to image management and smart messaging. She arrived flawless, and during dinner she was painfully polite, speaking to everyone at the table rather than running around to hang out with taller guests or shoulder-surfing for more powerful people, as Washington custom dictates.
The next morning, a long, handwritten thank you letter arrived. “Wow,” I thought, wondering how she had found the time. I realized she was someone for whom no symbol was too small when it came to projecting the right image.
A decade later, this is a point anyone studying current American politics should note. Last month, Donald Trump finally did what he promised to do and declared his intention to run for president in 2024 as a Republican. The news left many anti-Trump watchers reeling from the prospect of a possible second term. Opinion polls over most of the past year have indicated the former president as the preferred candidate for most GOP voters. A survey last month by Politico and economic intelligence firm Morning Consult suggested that 47% of Republican and Republican voters would support Trump if the Republican primary were held today – a level far higher than for any other candidate.
These are serious numbers. Still, among many senior Republicans there are doubts whether the former president could actually win in a general election. I suspect Ivanka has her doubts too. When Trump announced his candidacy at Mar-a-Lago, surrounded by supporters and family, his daughter was nowhere to be found. (The FT Weekend Magazine reported that her husband, Jared Kushner, was in attendance.) It’s a stark contrast to 2016, when Ivanka was constantly by her side.
Ivanka says she is focused on raising her children. But knowing how well she understands the meaning of the little signals, I doubt that’s the only explanation. Judging by the mood among her friends, I suspect she also wants to keep her distance from a campaign that seems messy at best and likely to fail at worst.
It’s easy to see why she might feel that way. Apart from the ongoing tax and legal investigations Trump is facing and the revelations surrounding his role in the Jan. 6 uprising, there are also signs of political change underway.
Take Utah. Strongly pro-Trump in the past, a voter poll conducted last week by Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute placed Trump in third place as the preferred presidential candidate. Likewise, a new survey from the Texas Republican Party suggests that Trump now leads Ron DeSantis, the recently re-elected governor of Florida, as the preferred candidate by 11 percentage points, whereas a month ago he was clearly the favourite. On the Election Betting Odds platform, DeSantis is currently deemed to have a 29% chance of winning; Trump only 14%.
Some of this may reflect the fact that Trump crossed a line when he tried to block the peaceful transfer of power. But I also blame a more prosaic factor: boredom. When he sat tweeting in the White House, Trump mesmerized the world because his tactic broke the mold in a shocking and unpredictable way. It was like watching reality TV.
But as any TV producer knows, formats can get tired when overused. Trump’s political brand looks like this: Even when he makes outrageous moves – for example, calling for the cancellation of the Constitution last week – it unleashes a smaller storm than before. (Admittedly, he doesn’t use Twitter anymore.) Political pundits don’t feel like they have to discuss him all the time. Neither do voters.
This may be a temporary phenomenon. Steve Bannon, Trump’s former strategist, tells me that Trump’s appeal remains very powerful given the widespread economic pain and frustration with left-wing “woke” culture. His team knows that if the other Republican presidential candidates shared the anti-Trump vote, it could allow them to triumph. Meanwhile, some high-ranking Republicans tell me they fear that if Trump loses the Republican nomination he will run as a third-party candidate,
maybe help the Democrats.
It would be wrong to count Trump on. But it’s also wrong to assume he can triumph, even if Democrats keep talking about a “Trump threat” in order to mobilize their base. Trump no longer looks like the clear, conquering winner he likes to brag about being. Always a dedicated fashionista, Ivanka has already spotted the new trend.
Follow Gillian on Twitter @gilliantett and send him an e-mail at [email protected]
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