Ithe taly is on course of having elected its most right-wing government since the Second World War after the exit polls gave Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FDI) and their allies a share of the vote that would ensure them comfortable majorities in both houses of parliament.
Polls also indicated that Ms Meloni’s radically nationalist party, which has its roots in neo-fascism, would be by far the largest of the three main right-wing groups in the next parliament with around 23-24% of the vote; probably more than the other members of his alliance combined. According to some snap polls, Matteo Salvini’s Northern League were likely to end the evening with less than 10%, down more than seven points from the previous general election in 2018. Exit polls have in the past been misleading in Italy, and the end result might be somewhat different; but they would have to be dramatically wrong for the result to change.
Early evidence suggests that, as has happened in previous elections, the increasingly left-leaning Five Star Movement (M5S) could do better than expected. Even so, he was considered to be gathering around 16%, half of what he earned five years ago. Center-left Democratic Party of Enrico Letta (DP) was to remain the largest opposition party, but with only around 20% of the vote, and not in a position to challenge the right. A centrist formation led by a former DP minister, Carlo Calenda, seemed unlikely to achieve his goal of maintaining the balance of power in parliament.
The vote took place at the end of a long campaign following the collapse of Mario Draghi’s broad-based coalition at the end of July. Mr Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank, resigned after first the Five Stars, then the League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party withdrew their support.
From the start, it was an election for right-wing parties to lose. And under other circumstances, the personal and political differences between Italian conservatives might have proved crippling. The fragility of their pact was dramatically brought to light in the final stages of the campaign. One of the biggest uncertainties about the right is how much it will support the war in Ukraine. Ms. Meloni has been a staunch supporter of the Western approach. But Mr Salvini has questioned the value of sanctions and Mr Berlusconi is a longtime friend of Vladimir Putin. On September 22, the 85-year-old former prime minister came to the unexpected defense of Mr Putin, implying that the Russian president had been pressured into invading Ukraine and saying he simply wanted to replace Volodymyr Zelensky’s government with “decent people”.
The right is also divided on budget issues. Ms Meloni said she was for fiscal prudence. Mr Salvini demanded that Italy run a higher budget deficit to mitigate the effects of the energy crisis.
Another prominent campaign issue was a controversial welfare plan. The right is united in wanting to evolve the Citizen’s Income Allowance, a 2019 Five Star innovation intended to provide a safety net for the tough guys. The M5S The leader, Giuseppe Conte, mounted a vigorous campaign in the poorer south that was based on fears that the right could remove the benefits altogether.
However, most of the battle for votes has been a duel between Ms Meloni and Mr Letta of the DP, former prime minister. The Brethren leader, who now looks set to become the first woman to lead her country, has proven a more charismatic figure in the roundups than her soft-spoken bald and bespectacled opponent. But Mr. Letta’s decisive handicap was his inability to muster a broad coalition of progressives.
Calenda, who broke away from the DP to form his own movement, Azione (Action), agreed to fight alongside his former party, only to withdraw from the agreement a few days later. He then joined another dissident group, led by Matteo Renzi, a former DP Prime Minister. Mr Letta had previously ruled out a pact with the Five Stars because of their role in bringing down the outgoing government. In the end, the only parties Mr Letta was able to get into his alliance were Italy’s small Green Movement, a far-left group and two small center parties, one promoting European integration and the other a splinter group from M5S, headed by Luigi Di Maio, Foreign Minister of Mr. Draghi’s administration. Defeat seemed assured from the start of the campaign.
Although the polls gave the combined right a huge lead, of around 17 percentage points, they were a more than normally dangerous guide to the exact outcome. Polling has been banned for the past two weeks of campaigning and, following a reform in 2019, Italy’s next parliament will be a third smaller. This meant that relatively minor changes in the vote could have a big impact.
The new government should not take office before the end of October, while the distribution of ministries is forged and, in the meantime, the choice of a new Prime Minister will be made by the President, Sergio Mattarella. He will now begin a series of consultations with the delegations of the various parties. But it’s hard to see how anyone other than Ms Meloni will get the green light.
