In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we review a variety of technical and fundamental signals on Bitcoin’s monthly price chart to see if we are nearing a low in crypto.
Take a look at the video below:
VIDEO: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Price Analysis: October 3, 2022
BTC’s Bearish Momentum Begins To Weaken…Maybe
The October monthly candle opened in pink on the LMACD histogram. This signal in the past has put bear markets back into hibernation mode for at least a year or more, and ssuggests a major shift in dynamics. But October needs to close higher to confirm and cement the color change on Bitcoin’s monthly chart.
The monthly Relative Strength Index remains the lowest in Bitcoin history, but it is moving at the bottom of a downward sloping channel. The same downward slope connected past RSI peaks.
Bitcoin bearish momentum might be weakening | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin investors could overcome their loss
The Coppock Curve also eventually landed at the same level where the latest bear market lows occurred. Time cycle tools also suggest that there could be a rhythmic Bitcoin behavior that is about to unfold.
The Coppock Curve was created by ESC Coppock, who was commissioned by his church to identify long-term buying opportunities for investors. It’s based on the idea that it takes between 11 and 14 months for a bear market to end, as that’s about how long it takes for a human to recover from a big loss.
Did Satoshi Call the Crypto Bottom?
Another possible bottom signal is not technical, but fundamental. The price of bitcoin is now in the lower cost-to-produce range at roughly the same duration as the 2018 bear market low.
This is remarkable, because in commodities, prices bottom out close to the cost of production. Even the creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto talked about it.
“The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the cost of production. If the price is lower than the cost, production slows down. If the price is higher than the cost, a profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increase in production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of production towards the price.