World markets have seen big swings in the past few days as cases of the new Coronavirus accelerate outside of China. While Apple stock has also been volatile, trading at levels slightly below the levels seen on January 31, when the WHO declared a global health emergency, it fared better compared to the broader S&P 500. There could be several trends helping Apple. First, unlike industries such as airlines and restaurants, which could lose demand, Apple will likely only see deferred demand. For example, a lower forecast for Q2 20 could translate into a stronger quarter in the future. In addition, much of the recent gain in Apple stocks has come from growth in its service business, which is likely largely immune to the epidemic. The drop in the number of new cases in China should also help Apple, which depends on the country for most of its manufacturing. Below, we examine how Apple’s stock has responded to the COVID-19 epidemic and how it compares to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
Check out our interactive dashboard analysis Are Apple stocks immune to COVID-19?
COVID-19: The stock of apples has decreased by 3.2% since the end of January, when WHO declared a global health emergency
The stock has fallen by 1% since February 24 (around the time the Center for Disease Control sounded the alarm about the wider world spread and in American communities) and March 3.
Comparison with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic
Chronology of the H1N1 pandemic
- 1st detection (first confirmed case in the United States) March 30, 2009
- Spread (WHO issues epidemic notice) April 24, 2009
- Peak spread (CDC says H1N1 may have peaked) November 30, 2009
- Discoloration (CDC says cases are steadily decreasing) December 19, 2009
- + 3 months March 19, 2010
Apple’s performance during the H1N1 epidemic
- Apple stocks benefited from the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, outperforming S&P and Amazon stocks.
- The apple stock gained about 58% between the time the H1N1 virus spread, peaked, and subsided, and gained 13% again three months after the pandemic ended.
- Amazon shares rose nearly 52% and 1.4% over the same period. In comparison, the S&P gained 29% and 4%.
- It should be noted that the larger markets have recovered from 2009, as the United States recovered from the 2008 economic crisis, which likely reduced the impact of the H1N1 pandemic on the markets.
For more details and graphs on how Apple behaved during the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, see our dashboard analysis Are Apple stocks immune to COVID-19?
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