After overnight intensification, Hurricane Ian became a major hurricane on Tuesday – now on a track further east and south of Tampa Bay.
Ian is expected to approach Florida’s west coast as an extremely dangerous hurricane, forecasters said in a 5 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center. The last runway shows a possible landing around the Sarasota County area, and the hurricane warning was extended to southwest Florida.
During their 5 p.m. update, forecasters said Ian would likely turn northeast and move faster than previously anticipated. The shift means the Hurricane Center now expects Ian to make landfall six to 12 hours earlier.
Still, the hurricane center continued to stress that Ian’s track is uncertain and the Tampa Bay area remains vulnerable to devastating levels of storm surge.
The Category 3 storm is about 230 miles south of Sarasota and 50 miles southwest of the Dry Tortugas as of 5 p.m. Ian is moving north at about 10 mph, and it is expected to turn north-northeast as it begins to slow Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
Forecasters predict that Ian will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys in the evening and reach the west coast of Florida in the hurricane warning zone throughout long Wednesday.
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Ian’s maximum sustained winds are around 120 mph, with higher gusts, according to the 5 p.m. update.
Hurricane force winds extend from the center of Ian up to 40 miles and tropical storm force winds extend up to 140 miles.
Ian should get stronger the next day or so as he moves over the warm gulf waters. The storm is tracking east from north, with some north-northeast swings, according to the 5 p.m. update. Forecasters believe it will be stronger and deeper vertically when it makes landfall, and they say that also means it will move faster.
A NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft reported that Ian had strengthened when he landed in Cuba on Tuesday morning and had gained momentum. In the 5 p.m. update, the hurricane center reported that the latest data from an Air Force hurricane fighter plane indicates the system is intensifying again as it moves overhead. from the southeastern Gulf, with the eastern side of the storm showing growth in hurricane-force winds.
Forecasters have extended watches and warnings to the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula, including an extension of a hurricane warning that now covers the area from Chokoloskee to the Anclote River
Dangerous storm surges, hurricane force winds, flooding and possible landslides are expected to continue in parts of western Cuba today.
Forecasters are warning of a potentially deadly storm surge along Florida’s west coast. The area from Naples to Sarasota is most at risk, according to the 5 p.m. update.
John Morales, an atmospheric and environmental scientist in Miami, tweeted that Ian’s projected landfall south of Tampa Bay caused the Hurricane Center to adjust its forecast for storm surges in the area.
Tampa Bay could still be hit by a storm surge between 4 and 6 feet, according to a graphic from the Hurricane Center. The projection lowered the region’s high surge estimate by 4 feet since Ian’s predicted trajectory changed. Just south of Tampa Bay, however, could see an extreme surge of up to 12 feet.
Heavy Ian rain will begin in the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Tuesday, spreading from central to northern Florida as night falls and into Wednesday, likely causing flash flooding, urban and small streams. Central and Northeast Florida are expected to receive between 12 and 18 inches, and some areas may see up to 24 inches of rain.
Forecasters are expecting hurricane-force winds in the southwest and west-central Florida hurricane warning zone beginning Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin Tuesday evening.
The Hurricane Center has placed Tampa Bay under hurricane and storm surge warnings. A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similarly, a storm surge warning means that dangerous levels of rising shoreline waters are expected.
Across Tampa Bay, local leaders have begged residents to prepare. Ian has the potential to be a historic disaster, a meteorologist told The Times In Monday.
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Hillsborough County ordered a mandatory evacuation for residents of Areas A and B. Pinellas County issued a mandatory evacuation for Area A Monday night, and Areas B and C enforced the same order Tuesday at 7 hours. Pasco County has announced the evacuation for Areas A, B, and C, meaning everyone west of US 19 and some neighborhoods to the east.
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Businesses and schools in Tampa Bay have announced closures, including airports and local shopping malls.
Other Hurricane Center watches and warnings on Tuesday include:
A hurricane warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida, covering the area from Chokoloskee to the Anclote River. This includes the Tampa Bay area. The Dry Tortugas is also subject to a hurricane warning.
A storm surge warning is in effect for Tampa Bay; the Dry Tortugas; the area from the Suwannee River south to Flamingo; the area around the St. Johns River; and from the Flagler/Volusia county line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas; all of the Florida Keys; Florida Bay; Flamingos at Altamaha Sound; Flamingos at Chokoloskee; Lake Okeechobee.
A storm surge watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West; Florida Bay; Aucilla River to Suwanee River; the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to the South Santee River; and south of Marineland to the Volusia and Flagler county line.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Strait to south of the Santee River.
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Tampa Bay Times 2022 Hurricane Guide
IT’S THE SEASON OF STORMS: Prepare and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane.
GROWING THREAT: Tampa Bay is going to be flooded. Here’s how to prepare.
RECHECK: Checklists for Building All Kinds of Hurricane Kits
PHONE HIM: Use your smartphone to protect your data, documents and photos.
SELF-ADMINISTERED CARE: Protect your sanity during a hurricane.
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PART 1: The Tampa Bay Times has teamed up with the National Hurricane Center for a revealing look at future storms.
PART 2: Even weak hurricanes can cause huge storm surges. Experts say people don’t understand the risk.
PART 3: Tampa Bay is at huge flood risk. What should we do about it?
INTERACTIVE MAP: Search your Tampa Bay neighborhood to see the risk of hurricane flooding.
