Do you remember Huawei’s amazing victory over US President Trump in late January? After months of lobbying, the main American security ally, the United Kingdom, chose to choose Shenzhen rather than Washington. Trump was apoplectic with fury, the British government of Boris Johnson was accused of treason. Well, it turns out that the happy ending celebrated at the time by Huawei management may have been premature.
Late on March 6, news from the UK Defense Commission will launch a 5G security investigation, for which you can read an investigation into the decision to allow Huawei to enter the UK’s next generation network. United. Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the commission, said: “We will work to understand the legitimate concerns surrounding the decision to allow Huawei to contribute to the 5G network in the UK”, adding that “we will not hesitate to respond head-on to public concerns. “
With smartphone sales in the balance, a drop in 5G sales in the UK, especially given the potential for impact in other markets, is the last thing the company needs. You can say there is concern that a review of the UK decision may be contemplated by Huawei’s response to the latest news. “In the past 18 months,” the company said in a statement, [U.K.] The government and two parliamentary committees carried out a detailed assessment of the facts and concluded that there was no reason to prohibit Huawei from providing 5G equipment for cybersecurity reasons. “
Washington’s immediate public response to the January UK decision seemed muted – but behind closed doors it was just the opposite. Councilors said a phone call between the leaders turned into an angry tirade. But, despite this, Trump’s decision to keep an itchy finger on Twitter under control was seen as a positive sign that the damage to the security alliance might not be suffering too much.
But for Washington’s most hawkish politicians, there has been no such pause. And in the last move, Republican senators Marco Rubio (R-FL), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Josh Hawley (R-MO) wrote Protecting America against compromised foreign investors by the CCP Act, which seeks to threaten the UK’s “white list” insider status with regard to investments in the United States
Such a move would undermine the integrated nature of the defense and industrial security alliance of the United Kingdom and the United States, which sees companies working transparently across borders.
As Rubio said in a statement, “the recent UK flawed decision to allow Chinese telecommunications equipment into its 5G infrastructure jeopardizes the security and economic interests of the United States and our allies. The United States must now reassess how we engage with our important ally. “
Cruz went further, calling Huawei “a global spy operation masquerading as a telecommunications company,” and warning that “Britain is endangering the national security of the United States and our allies by allowing it’s up to Huawei to build its 5G infrastructure … helping protect the U.S. from the dangers of deals like the one our British allies are looking for. “
And that sentiment is now widespread enough among U.S. lawmakers – enough for there to be unintended consequences for the UK that have been deemed unlikely so far. On March 3, 20 American multi-party senators wrote to the British Parliament to express “significant concerns” and urging that the decision be “reconsidered”.
It is a campaign to force the UK to change its mind. And while the American pressure is heating up, the real pressure on the British government to change course comes from closer to home. Warmongering politicians in the UK had been pushing for a ban on Huawei before the government’s decision, and have not softened their lobbying or rhetoric since it was made in late January.
“We have been operating in Britain for almost 20 years,” Huawei said in its statement, “and have played a vital role in the development and provision of 3G and 4G for people across the UK. Cybersecurity requires high and common standards in the telecommunications industry, which Huawei has always supported. Creating a 5G Britain rightly requires careful consideration and we will be working with the select committee to answer their questions in the coming months to come up. “
“It makes no logical sense,” former party leader Sir Iain Duncan-Smith wrote in a column on February 9. “It is inconceivable that such a decision should be made in the face of all the evidence of the threat that China poses to us and our allies.”
This week, a meeting of British parliamentarians debated the issue and their options. With the decision taken, the consensus among this growing group of politicians is that the agreed ceiling on Huawei equipment, now 35%, should be reduced to 0% over the next few years, which means that there there will be no Huawei kit in the UK 5G network.
“We made the Americans and our other allies furious at the five eyes,” warned Conservative MP Owen Paterson at the meeting. “Shouldn’t we have a concerted program with the Five Eyes allies to reach 0% in a short period of time?”
This will come to a head next week, Tuesday March 10, when these Conservative MPs seek to pass a law through Parliament to amend the decision of the British government. The deadline they are asking for will be 2022, a decision to appease the United States but give UK networks time to plan, they say, without having too much of an impact on 5G deployment plans.
As reported by Financial times, the amendment would ban networks from using “equipment provided by companies considered” high risk providers “by the National Cyber Security Center” after that date, but may well be “expensive for operators – four mobile networks in the UK have all launched 5G services using the Huawei kit. “
The hope for Huawei is that the group will not be able to muster enough votes to force the hand of the government. According to FT, one of the group members said that “up to 40 Conservatives could support them – enough to defeat the government … Another predicted that up to 60 Conservative MPs could support the amendment … But a prominent rebel said the number was currently closer to 20. “
The stakes are high and given the angry reaction from the United States and a bottom wave on the Conservative benches for a review, a deadline could be the most graceful exit for the government. As John Hemmings of the Henry Jackson Society warned in a March 4 column, the UK sticking to its decision to include Huawei in 5G risks serious consequences. “The partners of Five Eyes are not about to stop working together, but such a deep and special partnership will only last if all of its members are confident that they are working for the same end.”
If the UK is forced to back off, it will be an extremely damaging blow to Huawei, which hailed the UK example as a justification for its security position. The UK is seen as a litmus test for many other countries, given its cyber expertise and long-term use of Huawei. The country also has the most extensive configuration to assess Huawei’s security risks around the world.
And to add to this concern, News reported on March 6 that the Chinese tech giant is now forecasting “a sharp drop in smartphone sales amid US sanctions – in what would be its first drop in a year from the other”. The figures disclosed are significant, down to 20%, and could worsen as the impact of the coronavirus sets in. The decline, reversing a decade of uninterrupted growth, “says the report, is the result of expected weakness in sales in Europe and other overseas markets – due to US sanctions that prevent the company from using services mobile devices “.
Despite these sanctions, Huawei still displayed smartphone growth in 2019 and retained its second place in the world behind Samsung and ahead of Apple. The company initially forecast up to 300 million device shipments last year, but ended up shipping 240 million, an increase of 17% lower than expected in 2018. A 20% drop from that point would bring them back below 200 million units, below this level of 2018..
Earlier this year, Huawei president Eric Xu said the company “stood strong in the face of adversity”, but admitted that this year would be more difficult than the previous one, predicting this slowdown in growth but not predicting a sharp decline. “Survival will be our first priority,” said Xu, blaming the United States.
Meanwhile, the challenge Huawei is facing to convince the world of the lack of substance in U.S. accusations recently took two more hits. First claims that evidence of sanctions violations in Iran has been revealed, then with the subsequent admission of one of the company’s security chiefs that a company the size of Huawei cannot be certain that his equipment is not used for malicious purposes. This point is correct – no tech giant can be, but the timing of such recognition is unfortunate.
Twists and turns. Again. Huawei had hoped that the worst could be behind him with the UK decision in January, the next few days, however, could be a major setback for the company and put everything back in the mix.
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Updated later on March 6, first with the information report on smartphone sales, then with news from the UK Defense Committee and Huawei’s response.