The AFC Championship game has arrived. Folks, get ready for some fireworks, as these two teams can light up the scoreboard with the best of them. The defending Kansas City Chiefs champion will host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, and if we’re lucky, it should be one of the best games of the season.
There is no need to delay. Let’s break things down.
How to watch
Dated: Sunday, January 24 | Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: CBS | Current: CBS All Access
To follow: CBS Sports app
When the Bills and Chiefs have the ball
Typically, we would do a separate section for each team. But in this case, it’s not really necessary. These two teams are spitting images of each other, and the entry conditions will be almost identical on both sides of the ball.
The Bills and Chiefs pass a lot more often than expected given distance, distance and score, which makes sense, considering they’ve had two of the league’s best three quarterbacks this season. Josh Allen made a monstrous leap forward in the third year, completing 396 of 572 passes (69.2%) for 4,544 yards (7.9 per attempt), 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, adding 421 yards and eight more. floor scores. Patrick Mahomes may not win the MVP title, but he remains the most dangerous player in the NFL. This season, he’s gone 390 of 588 (66.3 percent) for 4,740 yards (8.1 per attempt), 38 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He wasn’t as busy a runner as Allen, but he still added 308 yards and two scores with his legs.
Allen and Mahomes are both blessed with absurdly talented sleight of hand. The Bills have two All-Pros in Stefon Diggs (first team) and Cole Beasley (second team), plus explosive support players in John Brown and Gabriel Davis. The Chiefs have two All-Pros at Tyreek Hill (first team) and Travis Kelce (first team), as well as explosive support players at Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. Both teams even have dangerous tertiary pass catchers at times, like Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox on the Bills, and Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle on the Chiefs.
Each team’s offensive line has ranked above average in pass protection this season, according to Pro Football Focus, with the Bills placing sixth and the Chiefs placing seventh. They each have versatile running backs (Devin Singletary, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams) who can both step in and take a blitz and escape from the backfield for something to happen on a screen or a checkdown. Both quarterbacks benefit from their plethora of options, but have considerable gifts that would promote their team’s success even if they weren’t fortunate enough to have so many options.
You really don’t want to blitz either, as they’ll pick your defense if you don’t have enough defenders in cover. Allen has placed seventh in the league with a 110.9 passer rating against the blitz this season, by Pro Football Focus and Tru Media, while Mahomes has placed first with an absurd rating of 136.5. They were each rarely sacked in a blitz (3.8% of dropouts for Allen, 2.9% for Mahomes), and often did something while shirking the pressure, which they did very well. throughout the year. Allen (121.9) and Mahomes (116.4) have both set the man’s cover on fire this season, displaying the ability to identify the right receiver and throw him open on the rare occasions their staff of offensive coaches did not organize someone open to start.
Both teams use four-man defensive fronts, with a superstar defensive back (Tre’Davious White for the Bills, Tyrann Mathieu for the Chiefs) and several solid support players at the back. Guys like Bashaud Breeland, Charvarius Ward, L’Jarius Sneed, Juan Thornhill, Daniel Sorenson, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer may not be household names, but they are. good players, who can more than defend themselves in most matches.
They will each be tested more in this game than in most of the others, of course. Breeland and Ward are likely to get tangled up with Diggs and Brown or Davis on the outside. Sneed will be responsible for equipping Beasley in the slot machine. While Bills might prefer having the white shadow of Tyreek Hill, the truth is, it’s too hard for anyone to do. Kansas City moves him so much, not only in terms of roster, but also in terms of movement before and after the snap. So Divisional Round star Taron Johnson will have to bring his A-game, as he did last week. White and Wallace will also be very busy, as the Chiefs can rotate four support receivers through these two locations, each dangerous in their own way. Perhaps the hardest job will fall on Hyde and Poyer, who must both provide assistance at the top to take deep balls to Hill, Hardman and Watkins, and sometimes give up to face the best tight end in the league. . They’ll have Matt Milano’s help on that latter front, but they’ll have to be involved, because you don’t just want to show Mahomes and his company an all-night look.
As difficult as the defensive backs’ job on Sunday night, the rushmen could struggle even more. They have a responsibility not only to reach the quarterback and disrupt his rhythm, but to keep him contained in the pocket. Allen and Mahomes are two of the best improvisers in the league, just as dangerous to throw on the move from the perimeter as when stationary behind their line. Sometimes even more dangerous. Staying in the leading lanes while being far enough out on the pitch to make things messy in the pocket is a Herculean task, and guys like Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Trent Murphy, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer, Ed Oliver, Harrison Phillips, Frank Clark, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Alex Okafor, Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Tershawn Wharton and Mike Pennel will be terribly busy. They’re going to have to line up and rush over and over and over again, and they’re likely to fail more often than not. These are just the breaks.
It should be amazingly fun.
Last Chances:
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Prediction: Chiefs 37, Bills 33
