It can’t happen here was the title of a 1930s novel about America. Fascism never came to America – and it is unlikely to do so. But martial law, or something close to the militarization of American cities, is plausible. In recent days, residents of Washington DC have become familiar with low-flying helicopters, sand-colored Humvees, night curfews, and men in uniform who go under military control.
If these scenes took place in Hong Kong, each think tank in the U.S. capital would host emergency webinars. As things stand, people are too dazed by the news to assess the risk. The chances of Donald Trump being re-elected in November are not very high. This is the source of the American danger.
But first, the good news. The Pentagon has no interest in breaking a 233-year-old habit of interfering in American politics. Defense Secretary Mark Esper frightened many people earlier this week by calling the streets of the United States “the battlefield” in support of Trump’s call to dominate the protests.
On Wednesday, Mr. Esper reversed himself and disowned military control of American cities. This may send Mr. Esper away, perhaps in a few days. His statement was as close as possible to resign without doing so. Shortly after, the Pentagon announced that it would withdraw 1,600 displaced US soldiers from the Washington area.
Unfortunately, the bad news outweighs the good. This order of the troops was itself reversed. As mentioned earlier, Mr. Trump is a weak man who presents himself as a strong man. On Monday, his attorney general, William Barr, ordered police to clear the square in front of the White House so that Mr. Trump can take a photo while holding a Bible in front of the local church.
It was in response to the mockery that the Secret Service took Mr. Trump to the White House bunker as protesters gathered around his perimeter. Mr. Barr, who shares nothing of Mr. Esper’s madness, pushes this perimeter further. National guards stand sentry over the enlarged borders of the White House.
What is the point of all of this? The main thing is to see these images through the lens of reality TV.
Trump wants Americans to believe the White House is threatened by national terrorists, arsonists, thugs, looters and killers – words he has used frequently in recent days. American stability is threatened, he said. The lives of the president and the lives of honest, law-abiding Americans are threatened by extremists on the streets. This is the gist of Mr. Trump’s message. But that requires a visual backdrop. Hence the stormy situation in Washington.
A more sober assessment is that the number of polls from Mr. Trump is dropping. He faces the triple cocktail of a mismanaged pandemic, the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression and an inability to quell the legitimate anger behind the American protests.
Most of these protests are peaceful. There was looting and scuffling with the police. So far, a retired police captain has been killed in St. Louis, while several protesters have been killed or maimed by the police. In addition, most of the looting appears to have been carried out by criminals under the guise of chaos.
This is a very different reality from the one Mr. Trump portrays. There is little chance that he will legitimately reverse his fortune in the months to come. I have lived in enough democracies, including America, to know a government loaded with doom when I see one.
Mr. Trump was fortunate to have avoided a real crisis in his first three years. Now he has three on his hands. His instincts are mainly optical. He threatens to use powers he does not have, such as sending the army to the streets. But he refuses to use the powers he has, like organizing a national response to the coronavirus.
These are the actions and inactions of a person with little interest in governing. But Mr. Trump has a burning desire to be re-elected. In his mind, defeat would lead to the dismantling of the Trump Organization and its prosecution and possible imprisonment.
Faced with a choice between sabotaging American democracy or a future spent in and out of courtrooms, I have no doubts about Mr. Trump’s instinct. It would be up to others to stop him.
This article has been corrected to reflect the fact that a retired police captain was killed during protests in St Louis on Tuesday.
It can’t happen here was the title of a 1930s novel about America. Fascism never came to America – and it is unlikely to do so. But martial law, or something close to the militarization of American cities, is plausible. In recent days, residents of Washington DC have become familiar with low-flying helicopters, sand-colored Humvees, night curfews, and men in uniform who go under military control.
If these scenes took place in Hong Kong, each think tank in the U.S. capital would host emergency webinars. As things stand, people are too dazed by the news to assess the risk. The chances of Donald Trump being re-elected in November are not very high. This is the source of the American danger.
But first, the good news. The Pentagon has no interest in breaking a 233-year-old habit of interfering in American politics. Defense Secretary Mark Esper frightened many people earlier this week by calling the streets of the United States “the battlefield” in support of Trump’s call to dominate the protests.
On Wednesday, Mr. Esper reversed himself and disowned military control of American cities. This may send Mr. Esper away, perhaps in a few days. His statement was as close as possible to resign without doing so. Shortly after, the Pentagon announced that it would withdraw 1,600 displaced US soldiers from the Washington area.
Unfortunately, the bad news outweighs the good. This order of the troops was itself reversed. As mentioned earlier, Mr. Trump is a weak man who presents himself as a strong man. On Monday, his attorney general, William Barr, ordered police to clear the square in front of the White House so that Mr. Trump can take a photo while holding a Bible in front of the local church.
It was in response to the mockery that the Secret Service took Mr. Trump to the White House bunker as protesters gathered around his perimeter. Mr. Barr, who shares nothing of Mr. Esper’s madness, pushes this perimeter further. National guards stand sentry over the enlarged borders of the White House.
What is the point of all of this? The main thing is to see these images through the lens of reality TV.
Trump wants Americans to believe the White House is threatened by national terrorists, arsonists, thugs, looters and killers – words he has used frequently in recent days. American stability is threatened, he said. The lives of the president and the lives of honest, law-abiding Americans are threatened by extremists on the streets. This is the gist of Mr. Trump’s message. But that requires a visual backdrop. Hence the stormy situation in Washington.
A more sober assessment is that the number of polls from Mr. Trump is dropping. He faces the triple cocktail of a mismanaged pandemic, the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression and an inability to quell the legitimate anger behind the American protests.
Most of these protests are peaceful. There was looting and scuffling with the police. So far, a retired police captain has been killed in St. Louis, while several protesters have been killed or maimed by the police. In addition, most of the looting appears to have been carried out by criminals under the guise of chaos.
This is a very different reality from the one Mr. Trump portrays. There is little chance that he will legitimately reverse his fortune in the months to come. I have lived in enough democracies, including America, to know a government loaded with doom when I see one.
Mr. Trump was fortunate to have avoided a real crisis in his first three years. Now he has three on his hands. His instincts are mainly optical. He threatens to use powers he does not have, such as sending the army to the streets. But he refuses to use the powers he has, like organizing a national response to the coronavirus.
These are the actions and inactions of a person with little interest in governing. But Mr. Trump has a burning desire to be re-elected. In his mind, defeat would lead to the dismantling of the Trump Organization and its prosecution and possible imprisonment.
Faced with a choice between sabotaging American democracy or a future spent in and out of courtrooms, I have no doubts about Mr. Trump’s instinct. It would be up to others to stop him.
This article has been corrected to reflect the fact that a retired police captain was killed during protests in St Louis on Tuesday.