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In Managing Madrid’s live podcast in Miami in January, Andres Cordero offered an interesting definition of the term “world class” (a term, for the most part, vague and subject to interpretation). His proposal: “world class” should be reserved for players who would undoubtedly be starters wherever they go. As we explored further, we agreed that it could be extended to “a player who could start for any team without there being a significant drop from player A to player B.”
It makes sense and got me thinking: It immediately puts Real Madrid ahead of an overwhelming majority of teams in Europe and a head above any team in Spain. Atletico Madrid, good as they are on paper, don’t have such a player whose current form fits the bill. Same as Barcelona. Real Madrid have at least six: Thibaut Courtois, Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Ferland Mendy, Karim Benzema, Vinicius Jr. Five other positions in the XI have marginal candidacy – which in itself is impressive.
LISTEN: Managing Madrid podcast live in Miami with Andres Cordero and Kiyan Sobhani
Where does that put them as a competitor? FiveThirtyEight currently predict that Real Madrid have a 4% chance of winning the Champions League title. The race begins with a 52% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Five teams have the best chance of advancing and, by extension, winning the entire trophy, according to this model: Chelsea, Ajax, Liverpool, Manchester City, Bayern Munich. Bayern (26%) and Manchester City (23%) have the best chances of becoming this year’s champions.
It is more or less that. Some might be shocked that Ajax are there ahead of Real Madrid – but Ajax have also come through their squad and have to play Benfica instead of Paris Saint Germain in their Round of 16 clash.
It’s about matches, your path to the final, and the timing of team health for key players on your team and the opponent’s. There is no exact science in all this. Ajax don’t have a better team than Real Madrid, but they have an easier opponent in the next round. The odds may change again in the quarter-finals if there are shocking results and some of the big guns are knocked out. Then there are other factors: experience, psychology and the intangible that most triggers fans of other teams: Champions League DNA.
Real Madrid were not favorites in three of their four Champions League titles during their dynasty run, according to the Sports Odds History database. We don’t have any odds until 2003, but I’m willing to bet my house that Real were unlikely contenders in 1998 and 2000 – where they finished fourth and fifth in the league respectively and won the Champions League. . title anyway. The way Real Madrid win European titles while being able to sleep inside isn’t normal, but it’s in their blood.
Moreover, they can even be bad in the Champions League and still win it because they turn the dial when it counts. No season summed this up better than 1999 – 2000, when Real Madrid lost 8 – 3 to Bayern Munich in two games in the Champions League group stage, but somehow scratched their way to the quarter-finals where he beat big favorites Manchester United. , then heavy favorites Bayern Munich in the semi-finals (yes, the same Bayern that put them in the mixer in the group stage) before beating Valencia in the final.
What does all this mean? It’s likely that superstars really matter, in more ways than you think – but not in all the ways you think. The ’99 – 00 team was in a coma for most of the season. But he also had one of the greatest defensive midfielders of all time (Fernando Redondo), one of the greatest left-backs of all time (Roberto Carlos), one of the five best right-backs in history of the club (Michel Salgado), and one of the greatest strikers in the history of Spanish football (Raul) in his starting XI. These four players put the team on their backs when it mattered most. They also clearly had a good mix of post-peak veterans and a young Iker Casillas making some noise. The cojones went into the clutch.
Real Madrid will almost always have a collection of the best players in the world, making them a good bet even in seasons when they seem to be on the fringes of contention. And since they’ve amassed more titles than anyone over the decades, they’ve earned a mental right where they can turn it on when other teams can’t. Doubt them at your peril.
But this Real Madrid is more than a team on the sidelines. As stated above, when it comes to our definitions of world class, Carlo Ancelotti’s men can take on anyone, and quite frankly, they’ve really struggled to stop this season. He’s more than a sleeping giant – he’s focused, hungry and really good. Experienced superstars and legends can carry this team through the turbulence. And that’s part of what makes Real Madrid’s next Champions League opponents, PSG, so dangerous.
PSG have the right deranged formula for a classic sleeping giant title race: 1) superstars; 2) a disappointing season; 3) veteran leadership and experienced Champions League DNA; 4) Hungry super-duper-stars who failed every year and are tired of losing. I’m ready to point out plenty of tactical holes in Mauricio Pochettino’s scheme in the coming weeks (and I’ve done so before) – but you mean PSG can’t put together a few moments of transcendence over the course of two games and get lucky along the way? It’s on the table, although I think this Real Madrid team is doing pretty well.
There’s no doubt that Bayern, Manchester City, Liverpool and defending champions Chelsea are among the favorites to win this year’s biggest prize – but I’m not putting a dime against this fearless white storm.
