FOX college basketball analyst Andy Katz revealed his three tiers of NBA draft prospects on Thursday, which included Indiana All-American forward Trayce Jackson-Davis. Katz only analyzed players who declared themselves for the NBA Draft with the possibility of returning to college. This list includes players who have a tough decision to make and could reasonably choose either path.
Katz named his first tier “Ready to Leave,” which included Michigan’s Moussa Diabate, Arizona’s Dalen Terry, Memphis’ Josh Minnott, Santa Clara’s Jalen Williams and Fresno State’s Orlando Robinson.
Diabate’s decision will have a big impact on the Big Ten landscape, should he decide to return for his second season. As a rookie, the 6-foot-11, 210-pound Diabate started 26 of 32 games and averaged nine points, six rebounds and one block per game.
He wasn’t counted on to lead Michigan consistently, but his stature and athleticism allowed Diabate to impact the game at both ends of the court. He could return to Michigan and play alongside Hunter Dickinson for another season or stay in the draft, where a team will bet on his potential.
“[Diabate’s] got the kind of game, rim protector, athlete, big athleticism that the NBA will covet somewhere in the first round,” Katz said. “I could see Diabate staying in the NBA draft.”
Another candidate listed in the “Ready to go” level is Terry, who is a potential opponent for Indiana next season if he returns to college. Like Diabate, Terry didn’t put up massive numbers or lead Arizona every night — he averaged eight points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.2 rebounds — but he’s the type. player who is increasingly sought after by NBA teams.
At 6-foot-7, 195 pounds, Terry shot 36 percent on 3 and started every game for an Arizona team that was the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Again, Terry could be drafted at potential or return to Arizona and seek revenge for their Sweet 16 loss to Houston. Indiana recently scheduled a game with Arizona on Dec. 10 in Las Vegas.
“[Terry] didn’t put up monster numbers, but again, it looks like he’s ready to go for the NBA draft,” Katz said. He will probably show himself well in training sessions. I don’t think he’ll come back to Arizona.”
Katz’s second tier called “Could Make a Case” included players he thought were squarely on the fence: Duke’s Trevor Keels, Marquette’s Justin Lewis, Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, Michigan State’s Max Christie, Arkansas’ Jaylin Williams and Rutgers’ Ron Harper Jr.
Christie came to Michigan State as a five-star recruit hoping to be a big scorer for Tom Izzo. He didn’t quite live up to the hype, scoring 9.3 points per game on 38% shooting. But at 6ft 6in and the ability to score anywhere on the pitch, Christie is seen as an attractive option outside of the lottery.
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If he returns to Michigan State, the same way Miles Bridges returned for his sophomore season in 2017-18, Christie could increase his scoring and draft stock as the star of the team.
“Again, [Christie] hasn’t had a great year, hasn’t been consistent, but he’s been talked about as a first-round pick,” Katz said. “It was certainly the expectation coming out of high school. It could go either way. I could see him staying in the draft, but I think he probably has to come back.”
One player who showed up in big moments against Indiana with a tough decision to make is Harper Jr. Due to the extra Covid year given to each player, Harper Jr. could return for his fifth season as a Scarlet Knight. He has increased his scoring average each season, putting up 15.8 points per game as a senior. And if he returns, he could increase his draft stock as potentially the best player in the conference.
Katz has raised concerns about his athleticism and speed, and at 6-foot-6, Harper Jr. likely won’t be able to score that much at the post against NBA forwards.
“[Harper Jr.] basically did everything he could or should do for the Scarlet Knights,” Katz said. “He is a little reduced, can make shots. Athletics can certainly be a question, but if he returns to Rutgers, he could be the Big Ten player of the year. I think he’s squarely on the fence.”
Katz’s third tier of NBA Draft prospect is made up of players he believes “should come back.” This tier includes Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis, Colorado State’s David Roddy, Gonzaga’s Julian Strawther, Baylor’s Matthew Mayer, and Stanford’s Harrison Ingram.
Jackson-Davis considered the draft after all three seasons at Indiana, and this year he was invited to the NBA Draft. Jackson-Davis is taking his time to get feedback from NBA scouts and has until June 1 to opt out of the draft and return to Indiana for his senior season if that’s what he decides.
Jackson-Davis took his defense to another level last year, blocking 2.3 shots per game, but he didn’t show the ability to knock down jump shots, which is the main limitation of his draft stock. . He averaged 18.3 points and 8.1 rebounds last season on 59% shooting, with the majority of his production coming close to the basket with his left hand.
It seems likely that Jackson-Davis will be a second-round pick if he stays in the draft, or he could return to an Indiana team firing three other starters and the nation’s No. 8 recruiting class.
“[Jackson-Davis] is not a first-round lock,” Katz said. “He certainly has the talent to potentially play in the NBA, but he’s not a first-round lock. If he comes back and plays one more year for Mike Woodson, he could be National Player of the Year, Big Ten Player of the Year, really cementing his legacy in Indiana.”
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