For only the second time in the history of their long and storied rivalry, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants will square off on Thanksgiving Day.
The last time that happened was in 1992, and the host team is surely hoping for a repeat of that performance, which ended in a 30-3 win for the Cowboys. Dallas is coming off a blowout victory over the Minnesota Vikings, a great rebound performance from their embarrassing loss to the Green Bay Packers the week before. New York, meanwhile, is coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions in a game where the Giants lost more than just on the scoreboard, with big contributors like Adoree’ Jackson and Wan’Dale Robinson now out for long periods due to injury.
Dallas won the first game between these two teams earlier this season and thus enters the game with a lead in the standings despite identical 7-3 records. The Cowboys won that game despite missing Dak Prescott, with the defense led by Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence dominating for much of the night. With the Giants now the team troubled by injuries on offense, the Cowboys are apparently well placed for a recall.
So, will Dallas continue to have a good time or will the Giants get back on track? We will find out soon enough. Before we break down the game, here’s how you can watch the game on Thanksgiving Day.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, November 24 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
TV: Fox | Flow: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports app
Odds: Cowboys -9.5, O/U 45.5 (courtesy Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Giants have the ball
The Giants are not in good shape right now, injury-wise. Sterling Shepard was lost for the season in the first game between these two teams; Robinson was lost for the season in last week’s game; right tackle Evan Neal may or may not be ready to return from the injury that sidelined him for the last three games; and tight end Daniel Bellinger, center Jon Feliciano, guard Shane Lemieux and left tackle Andrew Thomas all missed practice Tuesday due to injury or illness.
New York will likely feature a wide receiver trio of Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James against a Dallas secondary that has been playing at a very high level for most of the season. Trevon Diggs has only trailed AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson so far this season but can trail Slayton in this contest just because there’s no one else who poses a real threat, so why not making sure Slayton can’t be matched against one of the weaker corners, just in case?
The Giants don’t particularly want to throw the ball that often anyway, because they’re one of the heaviest teams in the NFL. And you probably want to attack Dallas on the ground rather than in the air – even if the run defense isn’t necessarily as bad as its reputation. (The Cowboys rank 10th in DVOA run defense at Football Outsiders.)
The problem is that the Giants are dealing with a bunch of injuries up front, and the heavy early season workload seems to be getting to Saquon Barkley, who has been much less effective in recent weeks than he was. earlier in the year. It’s coming off his worst game of the season by far, a 15-carry, 22-yard effort against a terrible Lions defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt. Barkley broke at least 4.5 yards per carry in five of the Giants’ first seven games but hasn’t since. In the Giants’ last three games, he has just 227 yards on 70 totes (3.2 per carry) and has added just six receptions for 30 yards on 11 targets. In those first seven games, he averaged almost that many receiving yards per game (25.7).
The Cowboys are dealing with some minor injury issues to their best players along the defensive front (Parsons is bumped and Demarcus Lawrence is ill), but they look likely to at least have all their guys, and they’re rotating enough for that. shouldn’t that’s not really a problem. This group dominated the first meeting between these two teams, and with New York’s offensive line in worse shape now than it was then, it seems like an even bigger mismatch this time around. Unless the Giants can spontaneously regain their rushing efficiency (something that may need to be done by Daniel Jones, rather than Barkley), they seem unlikely to find much offensive success here.
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When the Cowboys have the ball
Dallas’ offense has been rolling in recent weeks, averaging 35.3 points per game since Dak Prescott returned from his fractured thumb. They’ve hung at least 40 points from two of their four opponents and have passed 420 total yards in each of their last three games.
Over the four-game span, Prescott ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA by decline, according to TruMedia. He was 89 of 123 passes (72.4%) for 998 yards (8.1 per attempt), eight touchdowns and three interceptions, and he took just five sacks on 132 surrenders. He passes the ball to all of his pass catchers and he’s gone off target on just 6.5% of his shots, according to TruMedia. If it hadn’t been for a trio of misunderstandings with CeeDee Lamb on optional routes against the Bears and Packers, we could talk about how he’s played perfect football since his return.
Prescott has been impeccably protected since his return by an offensive line playing at an extremely high level (pressure rate of 25%). This group also helped pave the way for Tony Pollard to absolutely explode over the past three games (464 total yards and six touchdowns on 61 touches, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 13.8 yards per reception) , a development so predictable that many observers. had been predicting it for more than three years. Pollard is easily the Cowboys’ best guard right now, and the team would do well to lean on him to outplay and touch Ezekiel Elliott, even though the latter is in better health as the season progresses. However, Elliott should still play a part for the rest of the way, especially in close-range and goal-line situations, where his size, strength and decision make him very effective.
Pollard’s ability to smash big wins, however, is indispensable in the context of an offense that doesn’t have a ton of speed outside of him and Lamb, give or take the occasional gimmick game for the man of back KaVontae Turpin. Lamb went for eight receptions for 87 yards and a ridiculous one-handed touchdown the last time these two teams played, and he should have an easier time opening up this time around thanks to the absence of corner No. 1 Jackson. New York could also be without Fabian Moreau, potentially opening things up even further and allowing Michael Gallup and Noah Brown to play on the outside. New York has also struggled to contain tight end passes all season (30th in DVOA), which means Dalton Schultz should be able to eat in the lower areas.
In other words, even a healthy Giants team would likely struggle to stop this version of the Dallas offense. In its current state, the New York defense risks being a bit overwhelmed.
Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Prediction: Cowboys 30, Giants 13