AAngela Merkel A 16-year run as German Chancellor was always going to be a tough act to follow. But his triumphant exit was not the only reason the new government that took office on December 8 seemed likely to put on a poor show. The Germans had dubbed the wobbly coalition die Ampel, warning lights. This referred to the colors of its constituent parties – the Red Social Democrats, the Yellow Liberal Democrats and the Greens. Yet he also hinted at mixed signals and political blockages. It was of no help that Ampel’s front man was Olaf Scholz, a dry and prickly social democrat whose electoral success owed less to his own charms than to the blunders of his opponents. And then, a few weeks after the start of Ampel’s opening tour, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, decided to set the European theater on fire.
Still, Mr. Scholz’s multicolored ensemble held its own and even emerged stronger from a turbulent first year. Ampel has not only guided Europe’s richest and most populous country through a crisis as difficult as any that Mrs Merkel has faced. It has also set Germany – so far cautiously rather than firmly, it is true – on the path to potentially far-reaching reform. The coalition has shown that it can be flexible when needed, with each of its parties leaning towards compromise. And Mr. Scholz has proven a more capable leader than many expected from a former Hamburg mayor weaned on a pickle. “I think Scholz has the coalition in hand quite well,” says Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank. “He’s made it clear that he’s the one pulling the strings.”
It might seem like a small thing for the most elected official of a powerful country simply to show his own team who’s boss. But German federalism severely restricts executive power. Not only does Mr. Scholz have to keep his party loyal and his coalition partners happy. He faces politics in 16 vastly different states, all but one of which are currently governed by coalitions, and several of which in any given year will deliver a verdict on his party at the polls. The Chancellor must meanwhile balance the demands of Germany’s grumpy public and tabloid press with the strict constraints of her European Union and NATO alliances. Because of its dark past and its current weight, even friends of Germany do not hesitate to criticize its leaders for doing too much or not enough.
Ms Merkel handled these competing pressures brilliantly. Besides tenacity and intelligence, the four-term Chancellor’s favorite tool was patience. His tendency to withhold comments until others have exhausted their arguments has even spawned a verb, Merkeln meaning sit things down. Mr. Scholz clearly studied the master closely. His election campaign last year emphasized competence and pragmatism; in Ms Puglierin’s words, he introduced himself as “Merkel in costume”. In office, Mr. Scholz left telegenic young ministers to settle their differences, intervening only at the last minute, like a statesman.
The clash within the coalition over energy policy is an example of this. When Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine exposed how dangerously dependent Germany had become on Russian fuel, Ampel rushed to find alternatives. This forced the Greens to concede the restart of coal-fired power plants and the rapid construction of terminals to import LNGeven as the Liberals reluctantly allowed more spending (and the Social Democrats coyly admitted they were wrong about Russia).
But Robert Habeck, the Green Vice-Chancellor for Energy, has pondered for months whether to extend the life of Germany’s last three nuclear power plants, which Mrs Merkel has long pledged to close. by the end of this month. Although atomic energy remains a red flag for committed Greens, other Germans, including the rest of the coalition and even a good number of Greens, tend to think that it is ridiculous to close nuclear power plants in the in the midst of an energy war and soaring prices. Yet it was only in October that Mr Scholz dictated a compromise, allowing the factories to continue operating until next spring.
As under Mrs. Merkel, such strategic patience has helped entrench the coalition and strengthen Mr. Scholz’s grip. This helped the Ampels push through needed policies, such as unemployment benefit reform and upcoming changes to immigration laws, freeing up labor-strapped German companies to seek imported talent. . Yet Mr. Scholz’s calm and tactical policy is perhaps better suited to peacetime than to the current global crisis.
What looks like political wisdom in the Berlin Chancellery may look like foot-dragging or, at times, selfish parochialism to others. European allies were furious when, in late September, Ampel abruptly pledged 200 billion euros to shield German businesses and households from runaway energy costs. German diplomats found themselves explaining that no, this huge sum would not undermine the EU because it was actually only an approximate number, other countries are doing similar things, and it must be spread over many years.
Some Germans are also ruthless. Dieter Pogel, an accountant enjoying a bustling Christmas market in the port city of Bremen, takes a sip of mulled wine before speaking his mind about the Chancellor. “The Scholzomat talks a lot, but it doesn’t do much. It is a view shared, if expressed differently, by large sections of the political establishment in Berlin. The joy felt when, three days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr Scholz declared a Zeitenwendea historic turning point that would see Germany assert itself not only as a political and economic leader, but a military one, turned out to be a disappointment for many.
The Ampel has indeed defended its principles on Ukraine, providing a lot of money and weapons as well as a refuge for 1 million Ukrainians. But the promised €100 billion boost to Germany’s long-cut defense spending turned out, after months of hesitation, to mean an increase this year of just 0.2% as a proportion of GDPand not enough more next year to reach even the modest 2% of GDP that Ms Merkel had pledged, but failed to spend, all the way back in 2014. The defense minister recently admitted that despite nine months of crisis, his ministry had not ordered additional ammunition ; estimates suggest that under wartime conditions the German army would be depleted within days.
Perhaps, taking another example from Ms. Merkel, Mr. Scholz is thinking longer term. Maintained for five years, the increase in defense will begin to make a difference. By then, the energy transition Mr Habeck dreams of could also come to fruition, with Germany’s huge investment in emission-free hydrogen starting to pay off. Current economic woes, including the highest inflation in seven decades (and the biggest drop in real wages), as well as an expected recession in 2023, could also be a thing of the past.
Ms Puglierin warns of possible disadvantages. A new wave of refugees, along with a prolonged economic slump, could blow the budget and push voters toward fringe parties, especially far-right ones. Polls are already showing a slow decline in support for the Social Democrats and Liberals, although the Greens have more than held on. Henning Hoff, who edits International Politics, a global affairs quarterly, however thinks the center will hold on, with coalition partners clinging to survive and the majority opposition, led by Ms Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union, failing to to offer interesting alternatives. “This government seems fragile but is actually quite stable,” said Mr. Hoff. “He is doomed to success.” ■