“WALTER WHO? Saskia what? ” Bild, a tabloid, asked the question that many Germans will have asked on November 30 when members of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) elected Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken as co-directors. The obscure left duo triumphed from 53% to 45% over a rival pair led by Olaf Scholz, German Minister of Finance and SPDThe most famous politician. Their victory instantly raised the prospect of a quick end to the German coalition, which has almost two years to run.
The victory of the pair is the result of a deep mood which settled on the SPD based. The party has spent ten of the past 14 years as a junior partner in Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian brother party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) and lost lots of votes along the way. After a dismal result in the 2017 elections, the SPD reluctantly signed to another CDU / CSU-led the coalition, guaranteeing a rich cabinet job and several concessions in the coalition agreement. Yet the collapse continued. Today the SPD fight for third place in polls with the far-right alternative for Germany (AFre), far behind the Green Party.
In June, discomfort said Andrea Nahles, the SPDPrevious leader, after a series of poor electoral results. Scholz reluctantly threw his hat into the ring, but many party members backed down from the option of continuity he represented. Neither Mr. Walter-Borjans, former indistinguishable Minister of Finance of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia, nor Ms. Esken, little known MP specializing in digital policy, looked like charismatic agents of change. But their flirtation with the idea of overthrowing the government turned them into a storehouse of discontent. The irritation with the authoritarian manner of the party leadership also contributed to the defeat of Mr. Scholz, explains Wiebke Esdar, one of the few SPD MPs who supported the winning duo.
Now the frustration must translate into results. On the way to the countryside, Mr. Walter-Borjans and Ms. Esken made a number of requests, including the reopening of a recently agreed climate change package, the increase in the minimum wage to € 12 (13.30 $) the hour and approval of a ten-year program of 500 billion euros. public investment financed by debt. They opposed the deficit-free “black zero” policy of the government, a CDU device included in the coalition agreement and faithfully executed by Mr. Scholz. They said that the SPD should be ready to leave government if the CDU kept its “blockade mentality”.
Yet new leaders have their work cut out for two reasons. The first is that the CDUOwn difficulties make compromise difficult. Several of his politicians are scrambling to obtain the right to succeed Mrs Merkel, who is in her last term as chancellor, and to bow down to the Social Democrats does not win votes inside the CDU. Excluding a rewrite of the coalition agreement, party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said it was not the CDUWork to act as a therapist for SPD. Salvation can come from a clause in the coalition agreement that allows for policy changes if “current developments” permit. Mr. Walter-Borjans and Ms. Esken say that this condition is met by the economic slowdown in Germany (which justifies a wave of spending) and two hot summers (which push the issue to do more on the climate). A possible compromise could imply a CDU concession in exchange for its own price, such as a reduction in corporate tax. Merkel, who wants to serve her sentence, is open to talks. But a piecemeal agreement will hardly satisfy SPD members who thought they would vote for the breakup. Kevin Kühnert, the ambitious leader of Jusos, the party’s youth wing, was particularly demanding. “If the[[[[CDU]will not negotiate, I hope the new leadership pulls us out of the coalition, “said Ben Schneider, Jusos MP in Berlin.
Therefore, the second challenge for the SPDThe new leaders of the Union must maintain their own party. Party Brahmins, such as the first MPs, overwhelmingly supported Mr. Scholz as a leader and does not want to rock the coalition boat. Leaving it could precipitate an early election or a CDU / CSU minority government, none of which seems attractive to SPD. With the whip firmly in hand, Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer threatened to suspend the implementation of a recent coalition compromise on state pensions, widely seen as a SPD win, while the party reflects on its future.
All of this explains why Mr. Walter-Borjans and Ms. Esken quickly reduced expectations of rupture after their surprise victory. Next steps will be determined SPD congress in Berlin from 6 to 8 December. Details were still in progress The Economistwent to press, but rather than seeking an immediate end to the coalition, it appeared that the new leadership would seek a vague package of concessions CDU / CSU on the climate, wages, investments and labor regulations, without deadlines. Meanwhile, party unity is the watchword. Mr. Scholz will remain in government and Klara Geywitz, his running mate, will run for the SPDVice-chairmanship of Mr. Kühnert. Surprises remain possible, but for the moment the German government seems sure.
Optimists maintain that by setting course for an ambitious electoral program in 2021, Mr. Walter-Borjans and Ms. Esken could rejuvenate a discouraged party without blowing up the government. However, idealistic visions are difficult to pursue alongside coalition compromises – Mr. Scholz remains committed to black zero, for example – and the new duo does not seem ready for prime time. As Thorsten Benner of the Global Public Policy Institute contends, it would be strange SPD to leave the central ground at the moment when Mrs. Merkel, the moderate archetype, is preparing to yield, perhaps to a successor who will direct the CDU to the right. But sometimes despair has its own dynamic. ■
This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the title “Under new management”