Of course, Democrats would love to land Senate seats in places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where John Fetterman has led all recent public polls. And Republicans dream of victories in Colorado and Washington.
Yet the easiest path for Democrats to retain a majority is still to bring their so-called Core Four battleground senators back: Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto. of Nevada. And while Hassan and Kelly are breathing a little better these days, Cortez Masto and Warnock are sweating in extremely tight races. As Peters said, “I feel more comfortable — or feel good — with the trajectory we’re seeing in Arizona and New Hampshire.”
It’s time for the political tide to change before November, but the reality is that both sides have modest dreams at the moment. And Democrats have reason to worry if they can’t retain a majority of their four vulnerable incumbents.
Currently, a good Republican night would involve holding Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, while snagging Nevada and Georgia – a net change of two seats. A good Democratic night would mean no lost incumbents, plus pick-ups in Pennsylvania and possibly another state, giving the party enough votes to comfortably confirm President Joe Biden’s nominees.
Hassan and Kelly are not off the hook yet, but both have exploited the messy GOP primaries to gain a steady lead in the polls and benefited governors. Chris Sununu (RN.H.) and Doug Ducey (R-Arizona) passing on the races to the Senate.
Republicans have named former football star Herschel Walker to Georgia, a state where partisan polarization and his athletic fame keep him afloat despite his flaws. And Nevada is regaining its swing state status as it recovers from the crippling economic effect of the pandemic.
That makes Cortez Masto and Warnock the two incumbents whose campaigns keep Democrats up at night.
“You’re climbing a hill if you’re a Democratic candidate in Georgia,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who expressed confidence in Cortez Masto and Warnock.
Nevada’s GOP nominee, former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, lost a gubernatorial race in 2018 but has a strong political legacy from his grandfather, the late Sen. Paul Laxalt (R- Nov.). Kaine observed that the name “Laxalt in Nevada is like a Sununu in New Hampshire. Nevada is the only place where [Republicans] got the candidate they wanted.
Although the Democrats have significantly outscored their foes on every Senate battleground, Laxalt and Walker are fighting back. A recent poll shows Republicans locked in tight races and even leading at times, as Hassan and Kelly have led every public poll in their states since the GOP nominated Don Bolduc and Blake Masters, respectively.
“Georgia is the most competitive battleground state in the nation,” Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) explained. Warnock has reached 50% in some recent public polls, but if none of the candidates meet the majority threshold in the November ballot – as they did in the state’s regular and special Senate elections in 2020 – the race will take place in December.
In Georgia, the Walker and Warnock campaigns admit there are few swing voters up for grabs. So Peach State’s winning strategy is all about participation, while Nevada has more independents to compete for. Nevada ballots even have a “none of these candidates” option that can affect the outcome of a close Senate race.
Cortez Masto argued that the state is not as blue as its reputation, even though Democrats have won the last two state Senate races and carried it to the last four presidential elections.
“Nevada is always competitive,” she said. “It’s a swing state.”
In conversations with more than a dozen strategists and senators, members of both parties said Nevada and Georgia presented the best opportunities for Republicans to flip seats, while Pennsylvania was the Democrats’ best bet. for a pickup. New Hampshire will now be a tough challenge for the GOP, according to the consensus, and top Republicans also see Arizona’s overthrow as a pipe dream.
The New Hampshire GOP nominated Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general, despite Republican challengers who spent millions of dollars stopping him. Fergus Cullen, the former New Hampshire Republican Party chairman who backed state Senate Speaker Chuck Morse in the primary, said Bolduc lacked the skills or field operations to conduct a competitive election campaign.
At the end of August, Bolduc had less than $84,000 in cash, compared to $7.3 million for Hassan.
“Nothing has changed to suggest that the preprimary concerns were invalid,” Cullen said of Bolduc’s history of gaffes and controversial stances. “Democrats can’t put this one in the bag yet, but they need to breathe a huge sigh of relief.”
Bolduc’s spokeswoman, Kate Constantini, said he had been “underappreciated by pundits and critics alike, and yet he won his primary without spending a dime on television advertising.”
The Senate Republican super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, kept its $23 million commitment to the state. Still, Hassan holds a significant lead in the first ballot of the public general election, and Bolduc quickly retracted his past endorsement of the false allegations of voter fraud regarding the 2020 election and his support for the privatization of Medicare and health insurance. social Security. Nevertheless, Republicans say they are staying.
“We see a path to victory, but don’t take our word for it: National Democrats are pouring millions into New Hampshire during the month of October,” said SLF spokesman Jack Pandol.
Hassan and his allies, in particular, still insist the race is not over.
In Arizona, Republican Blake Masters is voting behind Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for state governor, who spent less than him on her campaign. Members of both parties say Masters is hurt by dithering on the state abortion ban.
On Thursday, Kelly launched a new ad about Masters’ support for abortion restrictions, one of several Democratic spots on his stance on the issue. In an interview, Kelly said voters “realize that’s what my opponent wants: a ban on abortion with no exceptions.”
A Masters spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Before winning the primary, he advocated an anti-abortion federal “personality law,” but has since sought to soften his stance while still adopting a proposed 15-week nationwide ban.
The top Senate GOP super PAC has since pulled all of its planned ads in Arizona. Other spending groups outside the GOP have cobbled together cash to keep it on the air in recent weeks, but it will likely need a substantial source of funding for October to have any chance of staying competitive, according to a knowledgeable Republican. the race.
Another person with knowledge of a recent internal Arizona Republican poll found Masters’ approval ratings lower than Roy Moore’s in 2017 as the Alabama Senate candidate imploded amid reports of past sexual misconduct, including romantic pursuit of minors.
Three Republicans involved in national races have said the party’s chances of unseating Kelly are comparable to GOP victories in blue Colorado or Washington. The party’s candidates in those states have raised big money in an effort to topple Democratic incumbents with lukewarm approval ratings — and they’re still the underdogs.