President Biden will deliver the State of the Union address to a divided Congress on Tuesday, bringing him face to face for the first time with the new House GOP majority.
The speech always represents an opportunity for the President to address a large national audience.
It comes as lawmakers and the president face a summer showdown to raise the national debt ceiling, which will have huge implications for next year’s presidential race.
Here are five things the president is likely to say — and five things he probably won’t say — during his speech.
WILL SAY
The debt ceiling
Biden will likely repeat his calls for Congress to raise the debt ceiling without conditions, arguing that it is Congress’s responsibility to send him a clean bill.
Biden met with President Kevin McCarthy (R-California) on Wednesday for their first face-to-face summit.
McCarthy left the meeting signaling his optimism about the chances of reaching an agreement, although neither side had made a commitment.
Biden is almost certain to repeat his calls for a sharp increase in the debt ceiling in his speech, while warning about cuts to Social Security and Medicare. The address represents an opportunity for Biden, in front of a large national audience, to set the stage for the debate to take place on his own terms.
Police reform
In his 2022 State of the Union address, Biden underscored his opposition to the idea of defunding the police.
On Tuesday, in the wake of the brutal death of Tire Nichols at the hands of Memphis police, Biden is expected to take a different tone.
He may still call for the need to defund the police, but he’s also likely to make a strong call for police reform — particularly after a meeting last week with the Congressional Black Caucus.
Given the spate of mass shootings earlier this year, also watch for Biden to again call on Congress to ban assault weapons.
Ukraine
Russia’s war on Ukraine will be a big part of Biden’s speech, especially with Republicans sounding different notes on the fight.
The president is likely to re-present American support for Ukraine as part of a broader fight against authoritarianism.
The Biden administration last month approved the transfer of tanks to Ukraine, and an additional assistance package is expected to be announced around the anniversary of the Russian invasion, which will come just days after the speech on the state of the union.
Some foreign policy experts are seeking Biden to use the speech to lay out a possible roadmap for ending the conflict in Ukraine, though the White House has said that should be determined by Ukrainian leaders.
economy
Biden got exactly what he was hoping for on Friday: a surprise jobs report that showed the economy added 517,000 jobs in January.
It was the perfect report for a president who wants to talk about a strong economy in the State of the Union address, which will likely be followed by a signal from Biden in the coming weeks that he has fully intends to stand for re-election in 2024.
Biden teased what he will say about the economy in his Friday remarks on the jobs numbers which also showed the country’s unemployment rate falling to 3.4%. He signaled that his argument would be that he had inherited inflation from the pandemic and that his policies were putting the nation on the right track.
“Am I responsible for inflation? No,” he said Friday. “Because it was already there when I got here, man. …Jobs were bleeding, inflation was rising, we weren’t manufacturing anything here, we were in big economic trouble, which is why I’m not doing it.
Immigration
A bipartisan deal on immigration has been elusive for years, but Biden is likely to call on lawmakers to give it another shot on Tuesday.
The president has faced heavy criticism over the influx of migrants at the US-Mexico border from Republicans and Democrats since taking office. The White House has said only congressional action will fix the problem, a point it is expected to reiterate on Tuesday.
DO NOT SAY
Classified documents scandal
If Biden brings up the classified documents controversy that was an unwelcome scenario earlier this year, it will come as a surprise.
Classified documents from Biden’s time as vice president have been found in his Delaware home and his former office in Washington, D.C.
A special counsel is currently investigating the case, along with another special counsel investigating documents found in the possession of former President Trump.
Republicans in Biden’s Tuesday hearing are promising surveys.
The Hunter Biden Investigations
House Republicans have in recent days stepped up their focus on investigations into Biden, including one that will focus on the finances and conduct of the president’s son, Hunter Biden.
While Biden could urge Congress to focus on issues that matter to the American public, he should avoid weighing in specifically on the investigation into his son.
The day after the State of the Union, the House Oversight and Accountability Committee will hold a hearing with three former Twitter employees testifying about the platform’s decision to limit the distribution of a New York Post article on Hunter Biden ahead of the 2020 presidential election.
Trump and other GOP leaders
Biden and other White House officials have made it a point not to mention his predecessor by name if they can help him, and Tuesday’s speech will likely be another example.
Biden is unlikely to discuss former President Trump, despite being the only declared candidate in the 2024 realm, although he may drop a comparison to the state of the economy or the pandemic when he took office.
The president is also unlikely to mention prominent GOP figures in the audience on Tuesday, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.).
Biden will almost certainly recognize McCarthy, even if only briefly. McCarthy will be seated behind Biden and the president greeted the president during his address at the National Prayer Breakfast.
Trump-DOJ investigation
While Biden will likely avoid any mention of reviewing his handling of classified documents, he will also avoid talking about DOJ investigations into his predecessor.
Trump is under scrutiny for a litany of issues, including his conduct around the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection on Capitol Hill and his handling of classified documents after federal agents found dozens of highly sensitive documents at his Mar- a-Lago in Florida. Last year.
Biden has made a habit of avoiding intervening on Justice Department matters, and while it might be easy to score political points by pointing out that the GOP figurehead is the subject of a legal review, he is not expected to talk about it during Tuesday’s speech. .
Withdrawals from the committee of Omar, Swalwell and Schiff
McCarthy and House Republicans scored a victory last week with the successful removal of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) from the Foreign Affairs Committee.
He also unilaterally blocked Democratic Representatives Adam Schiff (Calif.) and Eric Swalwell (Calif.) from sitting on the House Intelligence Committee.
Although the measures have been criticized as “political revenge” after Greene and Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Arizona) were removed from their committees in the last Congress, Biden likely won’t mention anything about them, instead focusing on the policy.
McCarthy will be seated behind Biden, next to Vice President Harris, for the first time during a State of the Union address.
Instead of bashing his attacks on some Democrats, Biden is more likely to say he wants to get along with the president, consistent with his remarks about mutual respect at the prayer breakfast last week.
