Week 6 of the NBA season is in the rearview mirror, and now is the time to reflect, overreact, and assess the fantasy basketball landscape. We are a quarter into the season and we have more data to assess player performance. With week 7 underway, it is important to keep an eye out for players who are showing sustained performance indicators or those who are due for a market correction.
Let’s move on to this week’s climbs and descents.
ELEVATORS
Deandre Ayton – C, Phoenix Suns
Current ranking per game: 56
Deandre Ayton found his appetite and feasted on the Utah Jazz last weekend, losing the third game 20-20 of his five-year career.
It’s the type of fantastic dominance managers expect when they select him in the fourth round of the draft this offseason. However, that was not the case five weeks into the year.
When Ayton honored coverage of the FALLERS Week 5 roster, he was 122nd in value per game, averaging 14.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 0.5 blocks per game. I called him a cheap contender, considering his career low was 16 points with 10 rebounds per game. But since November 15, Ayton has made a concerted effort to be more aggressive in attack and defense – and that has benefited Fantasy managers. He’s provided second-round value over the past two weeks, delivering 18.9 points, 12.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 0.8 blocks per game.
The Suns big man is now close to his career averages of 16 points and 10 rebounds at the start of Week 7 and is 57th in value per game. His low buy window is almost closed, so throw in some last-minute heaves if you’re looking for a center that provides double-digit points and rebounds every night.
Kevin Huerter – SG/SF, Sacramento Kings
Current rating per match: 65
The Kings are one of the teams that have improved the most this season, thanks to the play of their franchiser, De’Aaron Fox, and their valuable offseason business acquisition, Kevin Huerter. I tried to find the right time to talk about “Headband Huerter”, and unfortunately, a basketball player named Kevin Durant beat me in the fist.
The former Marylander became a legitimate source of points, threes and steals in his fifth NBA season. He’s enjoying a career-high usage rate (18.7%), minutes per game (32.2) and shooting at an elite level from the perimeter. Huerter’s shot was a much-needed revelation for the young Kings; he knocks down nearly 54% of his two-point attempts and 46% of his three-pointers. Surprisingly, he’s shooting an unusually low 69% from the charity strip, but it’s an element of his game that will positively regress to his career average of 77%.
Huerter is enjoying an under-the-radar escape, and as Kevin Durant said, “He’s playing like Klay, Steph right now.” I would look to move him away from another fantasy manager right now and use his miss from a few games ago as a starting point for negotiation.
*Whispers* He was playing against the best defensive team in basketball (Celtics), and they have a habit of completely shutting down the opposing team’s snipers..
‘The Red Velvet’ is legit and blows by his pre-season ADP of 145. He’s easily one of the steals in the draft for fantasy managers and could continue to climb the rankings if he improves on line.
Disclaimer: Ben Simmons would have made the RISERS list had he not left Monday’s contest with a knee injury. Fantasy managers likely lost some leverage to sell high after Simmons provided third-round value over the past two weeks.
FELLERS
Jonas Valanciunas – C, New Orleans Pelicans
Current ranking per match: 127
Kudos to the Pelicans front office for putting together such a comprehensive roster ahead of the 2022-23 season. New Orleans has dealt with plenty of injuries from the start, but still has plenty of bodies in the hopper to compete. Part of the reason Jonas Valanciunas is still around is that he’s a nice consolation prize if the franchise’s star player Sion Williamson never get hurt.
And therein lies the problem. Valanciunas never earned his pre-season ADP of 54 playing alongside a healthy Zion Williamson. Here’s a breakdown of Valanciunas’ stats from last season when Zion didn’t play:
2021-22:
17.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks in 30.3 minutes per game
2022-2023:
13.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks in 23.4 minutes per game
Point differential: -4.6
Rebound Differential: -2.4
Assistance differential: -0.5
Inventory differential: -0.7
Minute differential: -6.9
Thus, Valanciunas is on course to average the lowest number of points, rebounds, assists, plays and minutes per game in his previous five seasons. Additionally, he is an all-around defensive passive, boasting the second-lowest defensive rating on the Pelicans roster.
His shooting divisions are strong for a big man, but he’s basically only worth a low-end double-double in his current role. Unless Zion is injured, there is only a slight advantage for Valanciunas beyond being a low-end threat for points and rebounds with no other meaningful tally stats to help your fantasy team win. .
Josh Giddey – PG/SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
Current ranking per game: 206
I had high hopes for Josh Giddey in preseason, but the second-year pro hasn’t achieved the efficiency needed to anchor the guard position for fantasy managers. While his main tally stats are solid (14.4 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.5 assists), he turns the ball over 3.5 times per game, shoots 26% on three and 68% from the goal line. free throws.
And don’t rely on Giddey for many actions either. He’s contributing just 0.8 interceptions and blocks combined for Fantasy managers this season. In summary, Giddey is a player who is best utilized on teams that make threes, turnovers and free throw percentage. That’s a considerable amount of strategy for a player to consider.
The Aussie combo keeper finished 164 in value per game last season, so he’s clearly moving in the wrong direction. This is perhaps the phenomenal game of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but his usage rate is up from a year ago (22.2% from 24.6%), and yet his assists and rebounds are down from his rookie season. I can’t call it, but I doubt fantastic managers could move Giddey around for much, given his shortcomings outside of points, rebounds and assists.
