ESPN’s Basketball & Fantasy Basketball Betting Tips Cheat Sheet is your pre-game destination for basketball betting predictions and our best information and data to help you make smart fantasy and betting decisions. NBA game odds for Dec. 4 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy tips are based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Profit on the pistons: Did you know that home teams that grab more than four points this season have a winning record (28-27)? It will work. Teams in such locations are a screaming 35-16-4 ATS this season and that’s exactly where the Pistons find themselves tonight with the Grizzlies coming to town. In this game is Brandon Clarke, 52% available, a player who has blocked a shot in five consecutive games and in his last four has averaged a rebound every 3.4 minutes (10.6 per 36 minutes). The minutes are disappointing, but the production justifies increased running in a front yard that’s far from deep in Memphis
Turner boasting: Damian Lillard is expected tonight and that’s, in theory, great news for the Blazers. But can we expect the full version of him from the start following an injury that sidelined him for two weeks? If you’re skeptical, Myles Turner needs to be locked in the DFS lineups with his overs crushed in the aftermarket. In the six games he missed, the Blazers gave up 11.4 percent more points per possession than they did in their last six games with him and their rebound count plummeted. In Indiana’s four most effective games with Turner active this season, the center averaged 26.8 points on 64.2 percent shooting and 10.3 rebounds.
Back to back: The Knicks, Blazers and Kings are all hosting a game tonight on the second night in a row. The common train of thought is to wipe out restless teams, but, based on early data from this season, that could cost you some money. Teams hosting the second straight night this season are 29-20-4 ATS, good for 59.2% coverage. Blindly making a situation disappear is bad betting practice and even more so if the logic behind this action has proven to be faulty so far.
–Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
game of the night
Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets
6 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
Line: Celtics (-3)
Money line: Celtics (-135), Nets (+115)
Total: 234 dots
BPI Total projected: 234.6 points
BPI gain %: Celtics (66.9%)
Questionable: Smart Marcus
Excluded: Edmond Sumner, Ben Simmons, Yuta Watanabe
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Fantastic streamer: TJ Warren (available in 97.0% of leagues) played his first game in two years on Friday, on a one-minute restriction, and scored 10 points with 4 rebounds and a steal in 17 minutes of action. It might be a little too early for Warren, but if he’s healthy, remember he’s a guy who averaged over 30 PPG in the 2020 NBA bubble right before his injury. The Nets are a thin team with an injured front line, and Warren is worth both a potential stream and a “tryout” for a permanent spot on fantasy teams. — Andre Snellings
Best bet: Celtics -3. The Nets have won the first four games in this stand at home, six in a row at home and seven of their last 10 overall. It’s impressive, but the Celtics have been the dominant team in the division all season. They’ve won 14 of their last 16 games, and 11 of those wins were by at least eight points. The Celtics are also coming off a loss, in which Jayson Tatum had arguably his worst game of the season. I expect it to bounce back big on Sunday, in a game where the BPI predictor agrees the line should be closer to -5 than -3. –Snellings
Break the rest of the slate
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
3:30 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: Pelicans (-1)
Money line: Pelicans (-115), Nuggets (-105)
Total: 229 dots
BPI Total projected: 232.2 points
BPI gain %: Pelicans (54.1%)
Excluded: Jeff Green, Michael Porter Jr., Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Fantastic streamer: Bones Hyland (available in 84.6% of leagues) returned Friday after a four-game absence from illness and scored 16 points with 3 3-pointers, 2 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal in 22 minutes. In his six games before illness took him down, Hyland averaged 20.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.5 RPG, 3.8 3PG, and 1.2 SPG in 27.0 MPG out of the box. bench. –Snellings
Streamer Fantasy: Trey Murphy III (available in 82.3% of leagues) continues to enjoy his biggest opportunity with teammates Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones. Over his last four games, three of which were starts, Murphy has averaged 21.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.5 3PG, 1.5 SPG, and 0.8 BPG in 33.3 MPG. -Snellings
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
4 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Line: Suns (-9)
Money line: Suns (-455), Spurs (+345)
Total: 229 dots
BPI Total projected: 240.7 points
BPI gain %: Suns (76.3%)
Likely: Mikal Bridges
Questionable: Romeo Langford, Doug McDermott
Excluded: Chris Paul, Torrey Craig, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, Josh Richardson, Jeremy Sochan, Jakob Poeltl, Blake Wesley
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Detroit Pistons
6 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Grizzlies (-6)
Money line: Grizzlies (-220), Pistons (+180)
Total: 230.5 dots
BPI Total projected: 236.5 points
BPI gain %: Grizzlies (67.4%)
Questionable: Jake LaRavia, Steven Adams
Excluded: Ziaire Williams, Desmond Bane, Isaiah Livers, Cade Cunningham
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks
6 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Line: Cavaliers (-3)
Money line: Cavaliers (-115), Knicks (+130)
Total: 222 dots
BPI Total projected: 230.5 dots
BPI gain %: Riders (60.4%)
Questionable: Ryan Arcidiacono
Excluded: Jarrett Allen, Dean Wade
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Cavs -2.5. The Cavs are the top three seeds in the East, have won seven of their last nine games, and those seven wins have been by more than 2.5 points. The Knicks are the 11th seed in the East, have lost six of their last eight games and all six losses have been by more than 2.5 points. The Knicks are in the second half of a straight streak, coming off a blowout 21-point loss to the Mavericks on Saturday. I’ll give the points to take the Cavs. –Snellings
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Washington Wizards
6 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington. washington d.c.
Line: Wizards (-2.5)
Money line: Wizards (-135), Lakers (+115)
Total: 233.5 dots
BPI Total projected: 232.7 points
BPI gain %: Wizards (66.7%)
Questionable: Dennis Schröder, Anthony Davis, LeBron James
Excluded: Rui Hachimura
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Lakers +2.5. The Lakers currently play some of the best basketball in the NBA. They have won seven of their last nine games and are coming off their season signing in Milwaukee against the Bucks. Anthony Davis is playing his best basketball since their championship season in 2020, averaging 32.9 PPG and 15.9 RPG during that span, LeBron James is back and the team up and down seems to have settled into his roles. The Wizards are solid and play at home, but if the Lakers play at the level they’ve recently established, they have a good chance of keeping the game close if not winning outright. I’ll take them and score them. -Snellings
Chicago Bulls vs. Sacramento Kings
6 p.m. ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Line: Kings (-3)
Money line: Kings (-145), Bulls (+122)
Total: 238 dots
BPI Total projected: 240.4 points
BPI gain %: Kings (62.6%)
Questionable: Javonte Green, Alex Caruso
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Kings -2.5. That line actually confused me, enough for me to double check that the Kings didn’t have an injury I wasn’t aware of. The Kings are currently the fifth seed in the West, have won nine of their last 12 games, and those nine wins have been by more than 2.5 points. The Bulls are the 12th seed in the East, have lost seven of their last 10 games, and six of those seven losses have been by more than 2.5 points. The Kings are at home and the BPI predictor suggests the gap should be almost a point higher at Kings -3.4. I will give the points and take the kings. –Snellings
Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
9 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
Line: Jackets (-3.5)
Money line: Blazers (-165), Pacers (+140)
Total: 234.5 points
BPI Total projected: 238.2 points
BPI gain %: Blazers (54.1%)
Questionable: Tyrese Haliburton, Josh Hart, Drew Eubanks
Excluded: Gary Payton II, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson, Damian Lillard
Note: BPI figures are factored into excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Analytical edge
BPI Highest Projected Totals
1. Denver Nuggets (123.9 points)
2. Sacramento Kings (122 points)
3. Memphis Grizzlies (120.8 points)
Lowest projected BPI totals
1. New York Knicks (113.8 points)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (114.9 points)
3. Brooklyn Nets (114.9 points)
BPI top probability of winning (directly)
1. Phoenix Suns (76.3%)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (67.4%)
3. Boston Celtics (66.9%)
