ESPN’s Basketball & Fantasy Basketball Betting Tips Cheat Sheet is your pre-game destination for basketball betting predictions and our best information and data to help you make smart fantasy and betting decisions. NBA game odds for Nov. 27 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy tips are based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Sunday’s games
Advantage in Atlanta: Think you have an idea of how the Atlanta/Miami game is going to go in terms of total points? The Hawks are 4-1-1 ATS at home when the total is down, compared to 1-3 ATS when the game ends. An even game bet is a good game…you just have to decide if you like which side of the total you prefer!
Something has to give…or does it? : The Pistons (four straight ATS) and Cavaliers (4-1 ATS in their last five years after an 0-5 streak), making for a battle of profitable betting teams . So, heads or tails, right? Bad. With this gap north of five points, we can explore other trends. The Cavs are a perfect 6-0 ATS when favored by more than five points, but the Pistons? When a dog by 5.5-9 points, Detroit is just 2-5-2 ATS, the Pistons are rolling in terms of number coverage, but that’s shaping up to be a fade point.
Blazer Up, bet: Yes, there will be a lot of football matches in progress as tips of this game, but don’t miss a chance to play a trend. Five of Portland’s last seven games have exceeded the projected total, which is remarkable in itself. But the real advantage lies in the assessment of the opponent. Brooklyn is just 1-8 ATS when games top the count this season.
Upturned blazer, Fantasy: Has the versatility of a player been more discreet than that of Josh Hart? Villanova Pride grabbed 19 rebounds Friday night in New York, just 48 hours after dispensing nine assists in Cleveland. At the outset, only three players have 160 rebounds, 80 assists and 10 15h on their CV this season: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns and … Hart.
–Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
break the slate
Portland Trail Blazers at Brooklyn Nets
3 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
Line: Nets (-7.5)
Money line: Nets (-285), Blazers (+228)
Total: 222.5 dots
BPI Total projected: 230.4 points
BPI gain %: Fillets (78%)
Excluded: None
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Royce O’Neale (available in 71.1% of leagues) continues to quietly turn out solid full games every night. He added consistent assist and rebound numbers to his already strong defensive stats and 3-point production. Over his last five games, O’Neale has averaged 11.6 PPG, 7.0 APG, 6.0 RPG, 3.2 3PG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.8 BPG in 35.0 MPG. — Andre Snellings
Break the rest of the slate
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
3:30 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Warriors (-1.5)
Money line: Warriors (-125), Timberwolves (+105)
Total: 236 dots
BPI Total projected: 236.3 points
BPI gain %: Warriors (51.8%)
Questionable: Jaden McDaniels (illness)
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Klay Thompson over 18.5 points. Thompson started the season slowly as he slowly got his legs back under him, but over the past week he’s shown signs he’s stalling. He has scored 19 or more points in four of his last five games (and 18 in the fifth), and in that span has averaged 23.6 PPG on 48.8 FG%, 85.7 FT% and 51, 0 3P%. –Snellings
Indiana Pacers at LA Clippers
4 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Line: Pacers (-1.5)
Money line: Pacers (-120), Clippers (+100)
Total: 220.5 points
BPI Total projected: 227.4 points
BPI gain %: Mowers (60.6%)
Questionable: Kawhi Leonard (ankle), Luke Kennard (calf), Paul George (hamstring), Andrew Nembhard (knee)
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Streamer Fantasy: Bennedict Mathurin (available in 43.4% of leagues) has scored 20 or more goals in three consecutive games, and in his last 12 games he is averaging 19.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2 .6 3PG and 1.4 APG in 28.8 MPG. He should be registered and play in most league formats, and is a great streamer if you can get him. –Snellings
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 11.5 assists. Haliburton leads the NBA in assists by a significant margin, and his pace is picking up. He’s delivered at least 14 assists in four straight games and has delivered at least 12 in seven of his last nine games (averaging 12.9 APG over that span). –– Snellings
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
5 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Hawks (-5)
Money line: Falcons (-210), Heat (+175)
Total: 224 dots
BPI Total projected: 221.5 dots
BPI gain %: Falcons (67.8%)
Questionable: Clint Capela (mouth), Caleb Martin (illness), Max Strus (shoulder), Tyler Herro (ankle), Duncan Robinson (ankle)
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Hawks -5.0. If both teams were healthy, the Hawks -5 at home would be a reasonable gap. But, the heat injury report is almost the same length as their list. Jimmy Butler is one of three players declared eliminated, but seven players are listed as playing time decisions and chances are at least some will sit out. The Hawks are dealing with the potential absence of Clint Capela, but are otherwise as healthy as they have been for most of the season and should be favored to win comfortably on Sunday. –Snellings
Washington Wizards vs. Boston Celtics
6 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston, MA
Line: Celtics (-7)
Money line: Celtics (-305), Wizards (+240)
Total: 224 dots
BPI Total projected: 224.6 points
BPI gain %: Celtics (75.1%)
Questionable: Kyle Kuzma (back), Monte Morris (ankle), Rui Hachimura (ankle)
Excluded: Jayson Tatum (ankle)
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons
6 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Cavaliers (-7)
Money line: Cavaliers (-305), Pistons (+240)
Total: 211.5 points
BPI Total projected: 226.1 points
BPI gain %: Riders (78.2%)
Questionable: Jarrett Allen (hip), Caris LeVert (ankle), Isaiah Stewart (toe), Bojan Bogdanovic (knee), Jaden Ivey (knee), Saddiq Bey (ankle), Cory Joseph (illness)
Excluded: Kevin Love (thumb), Cade Cunningham (knee)
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Memphis Grizzlies vs New York Knicks
6 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Line: Grizzlies (-2.5)
Money line: Grizzlies (-135), Knicks (+115)
Total: 226 dots
BPI Total projected: 228.1 points
BPI gain %: Grizzlies (56.7%)
Questionable: Jalen Brunson (quad), Cam Reddish (groin), Derrick Rose (toe), Xavier Tillman (illness)
Excluded: Desmond Bane (toe)
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Dillon Brooks (available in 42.7% of leagues) has established itself as the main all-purpose wing for the Grizzlies since the fall of Desmond Bane. In his last seven games, Brooks has averaged 20.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 2.1 3PG, and 1.0 SPG. — Snelling
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic
6 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
Line: Magic (-2)
Money line: Magic (-125), 76ers (+105)
Total: 214.5 points
BPI Total projected: 221.6 points
BPI gain %: Magic (69.3%)
Questionable: Wendell Carter Jr. (foot), Markelle Fultz (toe), Jalen Suggs (ankle), Chuma Okeke (knee)
Excluded: Joel Embiid (foot), Matisse Thybulle (ankle), Cole Anthony (oblique)
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Fantastic Banners: Shake Milton (available in 89.5% of leagues) and De’Anthony Melton (available in 72.7% of leagues) should both start in just about every league as long as Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey are all out. In the four games since dropping gMaxey, Milton has averaged 22.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.5 APG, and 2.5 3PG in 38.8 MPG while Melton has jumped for 18.5 PPG , 4.8 RPG, 4.3 APG, 4.0 SPG and 4.0 3PG in 35.8 MPG. –Snellings
Dallas Mavericks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Line: Dollars (-7)
Money line: Dollars (-278), Mavericks (+222)
Total: 214.5 points
BPI Total projected: 229 dots
BPI gain %: Dollars (63.4%)
Questionable: Pat Connaughton (illness)
Excluded: Serge Ibaka (illness), Khris Middleton (wrist)
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Analytical edge
BPI Highest Projected Totals
1. Brooklyn Nets (119.5)
2. Portland Trail Blazers (118.4)
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (117.9)
Lowest projected BPI totals
1. Orlando Magic (108.1)
2. Miami Heat (108.7)
3. Wizards of Washington (108.7)
BPI top probability of winning (directly)
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (78.2%)
2. Brooklyn Nets (78%)
3. Boston Celtics (75.1%)
