ESPN’s Basketball & Fantasy Basketball Betting Tips Cheat Sheet is your pre-game destination for basketball betting predictions and our best information and data to help you make smart fantasy and betting decisions. NBA game odds for Nov. 26 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy tips are based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Saturday’s matches
Raptor Rotation: The Toronto Raptors will be without star forwards Scottie Barnes or Pascal Siakam for tonight’s game against the Mavericks due to respective injuries. Thaddeus Young isn’t, well, young, but the 16-year-old veteran has been quite productive as a starting forward in place of his ailing teammates, averaging 14 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3, 7 APGs and two steals in his last three games. Likewise, Chris Boucher is shining in a bigger role recently, averaging 17.2 PPG, 9.8 RPG and 1.8 steals and blocks combined over the past five games. For those in really deep leagues and/or fans of Adam Sandler movies, Juancho Hernangomez has nearly averaged a double-double with a high steal rate over the past two games.
Cam Campaign: If Chris Paul can’t go tonight due to a nagging heel injury, the Suns’ Cameron Payne (72% available) is in a great position to produce against the Jazz; he’s averaged 18.5 PPG, 6.9 APG, 2.6 3PG, and 1.4 interceptions and blocks combined over his last eight games, all starting in place of Paul. You can find Payne for $7,300 on DraftKings, as he’s a good start assuming Paul is still on the mend.
Rising rockets: Houston’s Kenyon Martin Jr. (95% available) just produced 21 points with 15 rebounds last night in an upset win over the Hawks. The young striker is expected to play an important role again for a depleted frontcourt in tonight’s game against the Thunder. First pick Jabari Smith Jr. (61%) has averaged 16.3 PPG and 8.3 RPG with solid shooting and defense over the last four games and is well positioned against an equally young frontcourt from Oklahoma City.
Saturday Spurs: San Antonio have turned to rookie Jeremy Sochan (97% available) as a key defensive option in recent games and he’s responded with seven interceptions in his last three games, including multiple hits on LeBron James last night. The rookie can help those looking for streaming assistance on a light four-game day. Teammate Tre Jones (31%) should see a spike in assist production given his rich potential assist rate, making him a solid target for passing props and as a DFS game at just 6,000 $ against the Lakers in this rubber game.
–Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
break the slate
Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors
5 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Line: Mavericks (-2.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-135), Raptors (+115)
Total: 215.5 points
BPI Total projected: 222.4 points
BPI gain %: Mavericks (58.9%)
Likely: Maxi Kleber
Excluded: Scottie Barnes (knee), Otto Porter Jr. (toe), Pascal Siakam (groin), Fred VanVleet (illness)
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Mavericks -2.5. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS on the road this season, but the Raptors are dealing with an abundance of injuries. Dallas is the healthiest team on Saturday afternoon with a solid defense that ranks ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions. Additionally, the Mavericks have superstar Luka Doncic, who has averaged 33.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 8.1 APG this season. Dallas should take care of business on the road. –Eric Moody
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Line: Thunder (-2)
Money line: Thunder (-130), Rockets (+110)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Total projected: 234.8 points
BPI gain %: Rockets (50.9%)
Questionable: Alperen Sengun, Eric Gordon
Excluded: Jae’Sean Tate
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander is in the middle of a career season averaging 31.0 PPG, 6.3 APG and 4.9 RPG in 36.3 MPG. He also has the sixth highest usage rate in the NBA (32.7%). A suboptimal Rockets defense should allow him to exceed that total. — Moody
Best bet: Kevin Porter Jr. over 19.5 points. Porter is averaging 16.1 field goals and 19.3 PPG with a 27.6% UAT this season. The Rockets are terrible on defense, so expect Porter to be heavily strained offensively for them to compete. — Moody
Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Line: Lakers (-3)
Money line: Lakers (-155), Spurs (+130)
Total: 230.5 dots
BPI Total projected: 235.6 points
BPI gain %: Lakers (58.7%)
Questionable: Josh Richardson, Doug McDermott
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Anthony Davis 37.5 points + rebounds. Davis has averaged 33 PPG and 17 PPG in games LeBron James has missed. This positive trend continued even with James back on the pitch. Davis scored 25 points and grabbed 15 rebounds Friday night. Against Spurs’ poor defence, I expect a similar performance on Saturday night. — Moody
Utah Jazz at the Phoenix Suns
9 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Line: Suns (-7)
Money line: Suns (-285), Jazz (+228)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Total projected: 234.8 points
BPI gain %: Suns (64.1%)
Excluded: Landry Shamet, Chris Paul
Note: BPI figures are for excluded players, but assume questionable players will play
Best bet: Jazz +7.0. The Suns and Jazz are on their second straight night and could be tired. Lauri Markkanen dropped a career-high 38 points in the last meeting between these two teams. As a result, I expect this game to be closer than the spread suggests. Utah is 3-2 ATS on zero days off. — Moody
Analytical Edge
BPI Highest Projected Totals
1. Phoenix Suns (119.4 points)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (119.1 points)
3. Houston Rockets (117.5 points)
Lowest projected BPI totals
1. Toronto Raptors (110 points)
2. Utah Jazz (115.4 points)
3. San Antonio Spurs (116.5 points)
BPI top probability of winning (directly)
1. Phoenix Suns (64.1%)
2. Dallas Mavericks (58.9%)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (58.7%)
