This Saturday night’s NBA DFS slate is smaller than usual. It’s so small that DFS players can flip over a few screens and watch every pick in action. Let’s do some research and make some picks, so we can relax and enjoy the three-game main roster that starts at 8 p.m. ET.
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Guardian
Studs
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets$10,600 — With everyone at Thanksgiving, nearly every team was in action Friday night. The result is a small Saturday slate. Regardless of the size of the slate, SGA is an elite pick every night this season. He took a big leap from big player to superstar. The Thunder leader has scored over 50 DKFPs ten times this season (including last night). His utilization rate is 32.2% in 35.7 minutes per game, or 1.2 FPPM. The Rockets have the third-worst defense and are playing at the 11th-fastest pace.
Assess
Tre Jones, San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers$6,000 — Spurs faced a brutal schedule heading into Thanksgiving week (five road games last week). It’s better this week but not by much. Saturday night’s contest is the end of a straight game and their third game in four nights. Their only day off was Thanksgiving and maybe that was too much of a day off. All that to say that Pop will be seated on Saturday. Will it be in the front yard, back yard or both? Jones struggled last week as key players rested, but not for lack of trying. His usage increased to over 23% but he couldn’t make any shots. The Thanksgiving break seems to have helped Tre. His shots were falling Friday night and his 32 DKFPs were second on the team. Fantasy points are expected to be flat again on Saturday, with the Lakers playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and the Spurs at sixth.
Malik Beasley, Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns$5,700 — A game is just a game. Sample size matters. Beasley scored 17 DKFPs against the Clippers on Monday. This happens when a player shoots 2 for 11 from the field (2 for 10 on 3AP). Over the previous six games, Beasley had averaged 33 DKFPs. The emergence of Anthony Edwards in Minnesota made Beasley disposable. He lived in the shadows last season. Now he has another opportunity to show off the talent he showed earlier in his career. The Jazz list is a Frankenstein monster. Talent overlooked by other teams was stitched together in Utah. So far they have made it work. On Wednesday, Beasley rebounded and scored 55.25 DKFP. It was good for 11.5x. In the seven games leading up to Wednesday, Beasley returned 7x or higher five times, including three above 8.5x.
Forward
Studs
Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz, $7,100 — A career break occurs but is it lasting? Based on minutes, yes. Bridges average 36.5 MPG. Based on the utilization rate (15.6%), it remains in question. However, the usage isn’t really the story. Bridges hasn’t significantly increased his usage during Chris Paul’s absence. The key to the emergence of Bridges was efficiency and normal growth. His rebounds, assists and blocks went up a notch in his fifth season. The progression that stands out the most is his 3-point shot. It went from 36.9% last season to 47.4%. Adding to the intrigue, he’s shooting less than three this season. Over the past seven games, Bridges has had DKFP scores of 43.5, 34, 32.5, 46 and 59.75.
Assess
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers, $4,300 — One of the biggest beneficiaries of Spurs’ brutal schedule has been Sochan. He has scored over 20 DKFPs in seven of the last eight games with his best showing last night – 41.25 DKFPs against the Lakers. For the past two weeks it has been playing north of 25 MPG and has a usage rate of around 20%. His usage rate and minutes might not jump off the page, but the Spurs are playing at the eighth fastest pace in the NBA. A 20% utilization rate with 25 MPG for the Spurs is different than the Cavaliers. Also, these numbers may increase in the future depending on Popovich’s opinion of Sochan. The Spurs head coach told reporter Tom Orsborn: “He’s just a very good player, very versatile on both sides, so we’re trying to give him the opportunity to do certain things offensively.”
KJ Martin Jr., Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, $4,300 — The Thunder feature an elite DFS game and should be targeted on every slate, especially a three-game slate. Their defensive efficiency rating of 110.6 ranks 22nd and their pace of 104.1 is fourth fastest in the conference. KJ Martin started his second game in the last three on Friday, and he scored in double figures again – fourth in a row. In the last 10 games, he is fourth on the team in scoring despite playing far fewer minutes than the three players above him. Martin is starting to see an extended run. He is ready to explode. Friday night’s team-leading performance – DKFP 44.25 – was just a preview of things to come.
Center
Studs
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs, $11,000 — If, and it’s a big if, Davis is playing, then he might be the best game on the slate. Rostering Davis will need to watch the Lakers daily injury report. For the latest news, download DK Live app and follow DK live on Twitter @dklive. LeBron James (adductor) was out for over a week, and the schedule isn’t getting any easier going forward. He played on Friday but was very rusty for the first three quarters. It’s the second night of a back-to-back and the midpoint of a three-game four-night streak. That means Davis’ status – and that of James – will be uncertain. Davis scored 84 DKFPs against Phoenix on Tuesday, and he lost 64 DKFPs at San Antonio last Saturday. The Lakers blew a 20-point lead against San Antonio on Friday, but when the game was on the line, Davis responded with a team-leading 57.75 DKFP.
Assess
Aleksej Pokusevski, Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets, $5,200 — The Pogo Stick may not be developing physically, but he is developing as an NBA player. Pokusevski started coming into his own at the end of last season, and now he’s the Thunder’s starting forward. Before injuring his ankle, Poku was scoring consistently in his mid-teens and getting just under double digit rebounds per game. Until he builds muscle, his points in the paint and rebound numbers won’t improve much. However, he can still contribute to the modern NBA based on his length and mobility. This season, Pokusevski is shooting better than 40 percent from the 3-point line after shooting below 30 percent in his first two seasons. His blocks per game have tripled. Those stats may not help the Thunder win more, but they quietly made Pokusevski a decent DFS target and absolutely a player to watch on a small slate. Making Pokusevski even more viable is the fact that the Rockets allow the most DKFPs to opposing power forwards.
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns, $3,400 — UNC’s rookie big man is an intriguing DFS game. After four hyper-efficient games, Kessler concocted three disappointing stat sheets. It’s easy to do if the court time isn’t there – Kessler played 12 minutes on Nov. 21 and 11 minutes on Nov. 19. Minutes should scare everyone, but Kessler’s unique abilities allowed him to return 6x value or more with just 15 minutes. minutes of work. For those unafraid, imagine what Kessler could do if given 20 minutes of racing. This is the second night of a back-to-back route. Kessler’s fresh young legs could get 20 minutes of work on Saturday. Also, Kessler hits the value and doesn’t score. The easiest stat to improve is score. His secondary and tertiary stats provide solid ground. One of those nights when he scores, he’ll be the game of the day.
Define your DraftKings fantastic basketball lineups here: NBA $300,000 Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may occasionally play on my personal account in the games I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal views on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the views of DraftKings and are not a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment to create queues. I can also deploy different players and strategies than those I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.