Kawhi Leonard is still recovering from the torn ACL that caused him to miss the entire 2021-22 season. He’s played in just five of the Clippers’ first 18 games this season, averaging just 22.4 MPG with three starts and two bench appearances.
The stated goal at the start of the season was for Leonard to run on a minute limit of around 20 MPG and then slowly ramp up to normal minutes as his health and wind picked up. Unfortunately, he started having knee pain after the second game and had to sit out for almost a month.
Now he’s back, and once again in the starting lineup playing in the low 20s in terms of MPG as he restarts the plan to get in shape.
The question for the fantastic basketball managers who signed up and kept Leonard through the first month is this: will it be worth the wait? If you hold on until he comes full speed ahead, what should you expect from him?
Let’s look forward with a quick review of the past.
Kawhi missed 73 games in the 2017-18 season after tearing his quadriceps tendon, as if sitting out last season. When Kawhi returned, here are his averages for the next three seasons:
26.2 PPG (49.1 FG%, 87.4 FT%), 7.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 2.0 3PG
Averages per game are strong. They would translate to 47.2 fantasy points per game, which would currently put them 14th in the NBA this season, just behind Pascal Siakam (48.4 FP/G) and just ahead of LeBron James (46.2 FP/G ), Ja Morant (45.9 FP/G). G) and Devin Booker (45.3 FP/G).
Looking at these numbers and names, it’s obvious that a healthy Leonard is a franchise player in both the NBA and fantasy basketball. In a league where I drafted Leonard, my friend Kyle called Kawhi a “potential league winner” as a third-round pick…and those numbers/names are the reason.
Everyone would hold for this type of increase, right?
So why, when recently asked which fantasy draft pick I regret the most this season, did I say pick that same third-round pick of Kawhi?
A few reasons. First, there was a cost to not having Leonard available/himself for the first month of the season. The War Room league I field him in is a daily traded H2H points league, and we’ve played five games so far. My team, which I share with my co-manager Stephania, is 0-5…by far the worst team I’ve had in all my leagues.
But, let’s take a closer look.
In Week 3, our team lost a squeaker by a fantastic 40 points (1,218 – 1,178) with Leonard not playing any games. In Week 5, our team lost by a heartbreaking 15 fantastic points (1,151-1,136) with Leonard playing part-time.
There were other matches where a healthy Kawhi might have made us competitive enough to pick up another win or two, but at the very least even a moderately below average Kawhi would have been good for two more wins. and would have put us in the mix. of the league a month later. Instead, this team is already in crisis mode.
So yeah, when I look at what my only Kawhi team has been so far, and what it could have been, I regret letting players like Donovan Mitchell down in this league…until ‘now. But the premise of this article is: what can we expect from Kawhi moving forward once he has completely put his legs under him? So let’s go back to his averages per game for the past three seasons, but add another key line:
26.2 PPG (49.1 FG%, 87.4 FT%), 7.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 2.0 3PG
…and 19 games missed per season (out of 75.3 games per season, due to schedule changes related to COVID-19)
You see, even when Leonard was as healthy as he could be for the past three seasons, he still missed almost exactly one in four games. Most of that was down to load management, as he planned to not play in back-to-back halves in addition to taking scheduled load management days.
It seems extremely likely that, even if he is fully operational this season, he will continue at this rate of play of 75% of games.
If you have Leonard on your team and you’re in a league with weekly roster management trades, that translates to a purely 75% rate for him. While 47.2 FP/G would be 14th in the NBA, 75% of 47.2 FP — or 35.4 FP — would be tied with Andrew Wiggins for 50th in the NBA. Still an impact guy, but not as exciting as waiting for an impact the size of Morant/Booker.
In daily trade leagues, Leonard is more valuable than that, as you could theoretically have other players on your roster to replace him in some of the games he misses. Not all…for example, if he misses a sparse NBA day, you probably won’t be able to fill him in on that day.
But, if it’s a busy schedule, like many Mondays, Wednesdays, or Fridays, you can replace Kawhi’s 47 Fantasy Points with someone who can give you 25 or 30 Fantasy Points. Still not ideal, but maybe closer to 88% Kawhi instead of 75%…or around 41.5 FP/G on average.
That would put him 25th in the league, right there with Fred VanVleet, just behind Bradley Beal and just ahead of Domantas Sabonis. They are still very exciting names and a fantastic big impact. But…remember, Kawhi’s absence may have already cost your team several wins in a season where every win counts.
In those scenarios, is even an impact the size of VanVleet enough to bring your team back into an eventual playoff run? Your mileage may vary.
Ultimately, if you drafted Kawhi Leonard to your fantasy basketball team and retained him, you’ve already paid some serious equity and you’re really considering the potential gain of rostering one of the best NBA players.
Just keep in mind that even though his per-game stats are more than elite, he’s very likely to miss one out of four games in the future, even assuming his health is as close as possible. There is also the risk of re-injury to consider.
So my advice is to wait and hope it reaches full Kawhi mode in the near future. If and when he does, take advantage of it and do as much as you can with your league teammates.
Just don’t act like you’re trying to trade it. Instead, play it like you’re talking trash. If you win a close game with one or two big Kawhi games putting your team over the top, tell your opponent what a genius you were for holding them off while they recover.
Do the same every time he drops a 40-point game or lands the game-winning shot that tops SportsCenter’s Top 10. Keep Kawhi’s name in the most positive vein possible. Then trade it immediately, as soon as you are able to calmly negotiate a deal worth its healthy average of 47.2 FP/G as opposed to its 75% rate.
That’s what I would do…you know, if I didn’t say it publicly, where my 13 ESPN-employed War Room league mates could read it.
