See below for a value game breakdown for tonight’s list of games on Fan Duel from FantasyPros.
Wendell Carter Jr. (ENT) $ 7,300
Carter is looking great in his last three starts for the Magic. He’s averaged 40.7 FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) throughout that span (5.6x value), and he’ll face the NBA’s worst defense against crosses tonight. Khem Birch’s imminent return could cap his advantage, but I suspect the Magic will trust the Hot Hand tonight.
Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $ 6,700
Pay close attention to Indiana’s injury report tonight. The Pacers ruled Brogdon out of last night’s game with a hip injury, but he was able to practice on Monday. I suspect the Pacers were just watching out for their star point guard, and if he returns to the lineup tonight, he should easily reach a value of 5x for such a low pay. He averages 37.3 FDPPG (5.6x value), and the T’Wolves drop the fourth largest FDPPG to point guards.
Devonte ‘Graham (CHA) $ 6,500
The Hornets are now without LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk and Gordon Hayward. This leaves a lot of headroom for other starters, but you can get most of it at fairly affordable salaries. The Hornets have looked towards the end of this six-game road trip, but have had several days off to rest, and they will face an exhausted Thunder team tonight. I prefer Graham to Terry Rozier ($ 7,400) simply because of the price differential.
RJ Barrett (NYK) $ 6,000
Why is Barrett so cheap? Of course, he will play the Celtics in what should be a low scoring game. But Barrett lit Boston for 19 points, three assists and 11 rebounds in January, so we can’t undo him. He may not repeat this performance, but he should easily post enough points to reach the value. It averages 29.8 FDPPG (5x value) over the year.
Aleksej Pokusevski (OKC) $ 5,500
With Isaiah Roby, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Darius Bazley all gone for the Thunder, the squad’s reserves will need to continue to grow. Pokusevski will be a key contributor at the forefront, especially as the Hornets are dropping the most FDPPGs in this position. He averaged 27.4 FDPPG (5x value) over his last four outings.
PJ Washington (CHA) $ 5,200
Washington is my favorite player to target in Charlotte’s offense. The Thunder abandon the second ruling FDPPG, and Washington’s salary reflects an overreaction to its collapse on the road. In addition, the Thunder allows the second largest FDPPG to be able to attack attackers. Look for it to bounce back after a while.
Josh Richardson (DAL) $ 5,000
The Houston Rockets allow most of the FDPPG to shoot at guards, where Richardson spends 82% of his minutes despite his small forward designation. Richardson hit a 5x value against that prize in his last appearance, and he’s the perfect opponent for him to start building momentum.
Joe Harris (BKN) $ 5,000
I admit that the logic behind this choice is very simple: do 3s. The Pelicans allow the most per game (15.1), and Harris averaged 3.2 does 3s per game. Kevin Durant is expected to make his comeback tonight, but with James Harden running out of time with a hamstring injury, Harris should still have plenty of chances to hit the value.
Goga Bitadze (IND) $ 3,900
Bitadze, the Indiana Safeguarding Center, could be a chalk if Turner is left out. The sophomore pro has averaged 7.8 points, 1.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game in his last eight appearances. He only played 12.8 minutes per game during that time. At this price, Bitadze should easily exceed the 5x value if Turner were to run out of time.
Ish Smith (WAS) $ 3,500
Smith is back! He’s played over 20 minutes in his first two games with the Wizards (of course Bradley Beal was knocked out), but he should be in line for a stable rotating role behind even though they both play; he averaged 20.6 minutes per game before his injury. It should easily clear the 5x value with an average share of minutes tonight, as the Magic give up the second highest number of FDPPGs to point guards.