Could the 2020 nomination process be more zanier?
You might assume that I am referring to the size of the original Democrat field, or the obscene spending of former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, or perhaps the fact that Iowa cannot count its votes and that Nevada cannot explain its Byzantine caucus system. In fact, I’m talking about the most counterproductive element of this circus: the extremely precocious vote.
The candidates had only two days to campaign between the South Carolina primary on Saturday and the 14 state primaries on Super Tuesday. Yet the citizens of many of these states began to vote weeks ago.
The Minnesotans began voting on January 17. Do you know who was still racing on January 17? Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, businessman Andrew Yang, former Maryland representative John Delaney, Colorado senator Michael Bennet, businessman Tom Steyer, former South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar . They all left, but in mid-January, the first voters did not know it.
Early voters voted meaningless
Does this timing make sense? Democrats – those who run and those who vote – are stressed enough without competing with the calendar.
Consider the fate of the early voters of Buttigieg. In California, about 3 million people had voted before it was abandoned, and according to averages from Real Clear Politics’ polls on Monday evening, that means about 240,000 Californians gave him meaningless votes. In Texas, the second largest state in Super Tuesday, about 1 million Democrats voted early. So, based on the average of the state polls, Buttigieg received around 55,000 advance votes.
Klobuchar, who dropped out a day after Buttigieg, probably got around 150,000 advance votes in California and 50,000 in Texas. And businessman Tom Steyer, who left the race on Saturday night, received 105,000 worthless votes from the two states.
If the reason for dropping out before Super Tuesday was to allow supporters to switch to more viable candidates, early voting has ruined about 600,000 Democrats in those two states.
Advance polling, in its various forms, is part of an understandable effort to encourage more Americans to participate. However, there is a gap – practically and politically – between getting the vote out and getting the facts out.
An early vote is certainly necessary to welcome people stationed outside their state or country, such as members of the armed forces. In 2009, Congress passed a law requiring military voters’ ballots must be available for mailing 45 days before an election. Some states, such as Vermont, have decided to simply extend this privilege to all residents.
However, federal law also requires a uniform voting day. In 2001, Oregon’s advance vote was challenged, but a federal court ruled that elections should not be “consumed” until polling day. As long as the votes are not counted until then, it does not matter when they are cast.
During the 2016 presidential primary, nearly 60% of the votes in California were cast before polling day. This number is likely to increase this year because the state has increased the number of ballots sent weeks in advance to registered voters – whether they want to vote early or not.
No break if your candidate leaves
After Buttigieg dropped out on Sunday night, some of his supporters asked, according to the Los Angeles Times, for a “revote”. Of course, there is nothing like it; those who voted early for Buttigieg are out of luck. The only thing these people have achieved with their wasted ballots is to remind us how quickly things are changing. Votes, like polls, capture a point in time, and snapshots taken 30 or 45 days ago seem rather hazy today.
A few weeks ago, while the Nevadans were voting early before caucus, I spoke to mystified Democrats who were unable to understand the format of the advance poll. In the “early” ballot, voters were asked to indicate their top five presidential choices. Sure75,000 people, three-quarters of the total vote, voted in an early voting period that ended on February 18 – the day before the Las Vegas debate that was supposed to help the Nevadans make an informed choice .
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Much will change after this year’s messy nomination experience. Caucuses are likely to disappear and the rules under which candidates qualify for debates will be revised. Advance voting should also be reconsidered. A week-long voting period might make sense, but opening polling stations for a month or more only increases the likelihood of voters regret.
In the hours leading up to Super Tuesday, the remaining Democrat contenders rushed after the biggest prizes – 415 delegates from California and 228 from Texas – to be confronted with the fact that Californians have been voting since February 3 and Texans since February 18 . the philosopher Yogi Berra once said, “It is early early.”
Peter Funt is a writer and host of “Candid Camera”.